Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / TEX · 2026
Jung, Josh
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team TEX
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
75
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.319 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.350 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.338 |
| Observed weight | 64% |
xwOBA
0.314
0.326
0.338
0.351
0.363
wOBA
0.347
0.362
0.378
0.395
0.410
ISO
0.148
0.160
0.173
0.186
0.198
K%
18.1%
19.2%
20.4%
21.6%
22.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.6%
44
-27 vs proj
Exit velocity90.7
83
Hard-hit%49.1%
88
xBA0.363
85
xSLG0.548
64
xwOBA0.350
84
+30 vs proj
BB%8.2%
46
+30 vs proj
Bat speed69.1
41
K%17.7%
76
+30 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength86.6 · 3B
50
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 3B
28
Range Runs-0.5 · 3B
42
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.6 · 3B
9
Sprint Speed25.8 · 3B
14
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.5% · rebadged research
49
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.4% · rebadged research
37
Correct Decisions65.3% · rebadged research
41
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
43
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.279 · borderline
70
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.304 · insufficient sample
7
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.303 · validated thin sample
10
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.362 · insufficient sample
7
Resists FastballwOBA 0.370 · validated
10
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.322 · validated
97
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
206 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.039 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.068 |
| Sample | 389 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 484 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 16 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.311 | 0.270 to 0.350 | +/- 0.040 |
| ISO | 0.157 | 0.118 to 0.224 | +/- 0.053 |
| Barrel% | 6.4% | 4.1% to 8.4% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 45.0% | 42.7% to 52.6% | +/- 5.0% |
| K% | 23.1% | 21.4% to 30.8% | +/- 4.7% |
| BB% | 5.4% | 3.8% to 8.2% | +/- 2.2% |
| BABIP | 0.317 | 0.282 to 0.365 | +/- 0.041 |
vs LHP
359 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.270 |
| K% | 19.1% |
| BB% | 4.6% |
| Barrel | 5.8% |
vs RHP
1080 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.246 |
| K% | 22.9% |
| BB% | 4.3% |
| Barrel | 5.3% |