Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Projection leans more on broad offensive balance than one extreme carrying trait.
Hitter projection / TEX · 2026
Jung, Josh
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team TEX
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.319 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.365 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.343 |
| Observed weight | 52% |
xwOBA
0.314
0.328
0.343
0.358
0.371
wOBA
0.367
0.386
0.408
0.429
0.448
ISO
0.160
0.175
0.191
0.207
0.222
K%
16.7%
18.0%
19.4%
20.8%
22.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%7.1%
31
+15 vs proj
Barrel%4.6%
43
-24 vs proj
Bat speed69.3
43
Exit velocity90.1
72
Hard-hit%47.0%
80
K%14.2%
89
+46 vs proj
xBA0.370
85
xSLG0.562
64
xwOBA0.365
85
+34 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength86.6 · 3B
61
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · 3B
9
Range Runs-1.1 · 3B
32
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.3 · 3B
10
Sprint Speed25.9 · 3B
18
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.8% · rebadged research
51
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.4% · rebadged research
46
Correct Decisions66.3% · rebadged research
51
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
48
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.300 · borderline
20
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.298 · insufficient sample
9
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.292 · validated thin sample
16
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.349 · insufficient sample
16
Resists FastballwOBA 0.370 · validated
10
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.330 · validated
94
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
175 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.054 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.097 |
| Sample | 239 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 484 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 16 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.311 | 0.270 to 0.350 | +/- 0.040 |
| ISO | 0.157 | 0.118 to 0.224 | +/- 0.053 |
| Barrel% | 6.4% | 4.1% to 8.4% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 45.0% | 42.7% to 52.6% | +/- 5.0% |
| K% | 23.1% | 21.4% to 30.8% | +/- 4.7% |
| BB% | 5.4% | 3.8% to 8.2% | +/- 2.2% |
| BABIP | 0.317 | 0.282 to 0.365 | +/- 0.041 |
vs LHP
359 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.270 |
| K% | 19.1% |
| BB% | 4.6% |
| Barrel | 5.8% |
vs RHP
1080 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.246 |
| K% | 22.9% |
| BB% | 4.3% |
| Barrel | 5.3% |