Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / COL · 2026
Karros, Kyle
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team COL
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 24
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
68
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.266 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.341 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.311 |
| Observed weight | 61% |
xwOBA
0.282
0.296
0.311
0.327
0.341
wOBA
0.351
0.367
0.385
0.403
0.419
ISO
0.120
0.135
0.151
0.167
0.181
K%
17.2%
18.9%
20.9%
22.8%
24.5%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.2%
52
+34 vs proj
Exit velocity90.0
73
Hard-hit%44.6%
75
+44 vs proj
xBA0.340
68
xSLG0.547
63
xwOBA0.341
79
+71 vs proj
BB%12.0%
85
+49 vs proj
Bat speed68.3
31
K%20.7%
60
+15 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength85.6 · 3B
43
Outs Above Avg1.0 · 3B
68
Range Runs0.7 · 3B
57
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.7 · 3B
84
Sprint Speed27.0 · 3B
40
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.9% · rebadged research
77
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.1% · rebadged research
77
Correct Decisions68.6% · rebadged research
75
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
86
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.289 · borderline
44
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.259 · insufficient sample
95
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.270 · validated thin sample
81
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.328 · insufficient sample
60
Resists FastballwOBA 0.391 · validated
3
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.335 · validated
93
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
146 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | +0.089 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.134 |
| Sample | 343 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 283 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 6 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.251 | 0.211 to 0.321 | +/- 0.055 |
| ISO | 0.122 | 0.034 to 0.169 | +/- 0.067 |
| Barrel% | 2.7% | 0.2% to 4.7% | +/- 2.3% |
| Hard-Hit% | 34.9% | 26.0% to 43.2% | +/- 8.6% |
| K% | 23.2% | 16.1% to 32.6% | +/- 8.2% |
| BB% | 7.4% | 3.7% to 9.8% | +/- 3.0% |
| BABIP | 0.298 | 0.206 to 0.362 | +/- 0.078 |
vs LHP
37 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.109 |
| K% | 9.6% |
| BB% | 4.1% |
| Barrel | 0.3% |
vs RHP
129 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.106 |
| K% | 10.6% |
| BB% | 3.8% |
| Barrel | 0.3% |