Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.275 vs 0.225 xwOBA split).
2
templated note
Home park trims some of the raw HR output despite the underlying power.
Hitter projection / DET · 2026
Keith, Colt
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team DET
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 25
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
68
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.331 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.324 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.327 |
| Observed weight | 57% |
xwOBA
0.303
0.314
0.327
0.340
0.351
wOBA
0.304
0.321
0.340
0.359
0.375
ISO
0.123
0.136
0.151
0.166
0.180
K%
17.0%
18.3%
19.7%
21.1%
22.4%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.5%
72
+18 vs proj
Exit velocity89.7
69
Hard-hit%43.9%
72
+18 vs proj
xBA0.337
65
xSLG0.547
63
xwOBA0.324
66
BB%6.5%
24
-28 vs proj
Bat speed70.4
61
K%19.1%
69
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength85.5 · 3B
41
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 3B
43
Range Runs0.6 · 3B
55
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.6 · 3B
83
Bolts1.0 · 3B
15
Sprint Speed28.2 · 3B
73
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.4% · rebadged research
74
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.9% · rebadged research
42
Correct Decisions68.3% · rebadged research
72
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.294 · borderline
36
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.322 · insufficient sample
1
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.289 · validated thin sample
26
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.319 · insufficient sample
83
Resists FastballwOBA 0.325 · validated
75
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.350 · validated
74
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline104
70
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
156 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.011 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.005 |
| Sample | 293 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 515 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 14 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.335 | 0.317 to 0.382 | +/- 0.032 |
| ISO | 0.170 | 0.115 to 0.229 | +/- 0.057 |
| Barrel% | 5.4% | 3.3% to 7.7% | +/- 2.2% |
| Hard-Hit% | 40.1% | 35.0% to 47.0% | +/- 6.0% |
| K% | 19.2% | 16.7% to 26.6% | +/- 5.0% |
| BB% | 8.7% | 6.2% to 12.1% | +/- 2.9% |
| BABIP | 0.291 | 0.265 to 0.332 | +/- 0.033 |
vs LHP
147 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.225 |
| K% | 19.4% |
| BB% | 6.0% |
| Barrel | 2.7% |
vs RHP
979 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.275 |
| K% | 15.9% |
| BB% | 7.5% |
| Barrel | 4.5% |