{ "date": "2026-07-12", "generated_at": "2026-07-12T08:04:45.858567", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "projection_date": "2026-07-12", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 220, "matched_count": 143, "unmatched_count": 77 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 143, "grouped_pitcher_count": 19, "sportsbook_count": 3 }, "edge_count": 143, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "pitcher_id": 676917, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-12T11:58:48.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -102, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 3.77, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.77, "skill_score": 53.3, "opportunity_score": 48.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 60.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1975, "model_under_probability": 0.8025, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4761, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5239, "edge_over": -0.3075, "edge_under": 0.2469, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2469, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "pitcher_id": 676917, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-12T11:58:13.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -185, "under_odds": 135, "expected_strikeouts": 3.77, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.77, "skill_score": 53.3, "opportunity_score": 48.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 60.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.33, "model_under_probability": 0.67, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6491, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4255, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.604, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.396, "edge_over": -0.3191, "edge_under": 0.2445, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2445, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "pitcher_id": 676917, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 108, "under_odds": -138, "expected_strikeouts": 3.77, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.77, "skill_score": 53.3, "opportunity_score": 48.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 60.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1975, "model_under_probability": 0.8025, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5798, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4533, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5467, "edge_over": -0.2833, "edge_under": 0.2227, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2227, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "pitcher_id": 676917, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-12T11:59:01.117Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 108, "under_odds": -138, "expected_strikeouts": 3.77, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.77, "skill_score": 53.3, "opportunity_score": 48.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 60.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1975, "model_under_probability": 0.8025, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5798, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4533, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5467, "edge_over": -0.2833, "edge_under": 0.2227, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2227, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "pitcher_id": 669022, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 420, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.15, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.83, "skill_score": 44.2, "opportunity_score": 23.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 74.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.369, "model_under_probability": 0.631, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1923, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.1767, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1767, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.947, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "pitcher_id": 669022, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 196, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.15, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.83, "skill_score": 44.2, "opportunity_score": 23.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 74.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5057, "model_under_probability": 0.4943, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3378, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.1679, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1679, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.947, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-12T11:58:35.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -140, "under_odds": 105, "expected_strikeouts": 5.68, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.68, "skill_score": 71.0, "opportunity_score": 56.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 31.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3483, "model_under_probability": 0.6517, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5446, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4554, "edge_over": -0.235, "edge_under": 0.1639, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1639, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.066, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.22, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 93.6, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-12T11:58:37.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -149, "under_odds": 117, "expected_strikeouts": 5.95, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.95, "skill_score": 27.6, "opportunity_score": 41.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 59.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3855, "model_under_probability": 0.6145, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5984, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4608, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.565, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.435, "edge_over": -0.2129, "edge_under": 0.1537, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1537, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.042, "aggregate_matchup_score": 75.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.05, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 87.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-12T11:57:57.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -123, "under_odds": -103, "expected_strikeouts": 5.68, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.68, "skill_score": 71.0, "opportunity_score": 56.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 31.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3483, "model_under_probability": 0.6517, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5516, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5074, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5209, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4791, "edge_over": -0.2033, "edge_under": 0.1443, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1443, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.066, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.22, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 93.6, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -111, "expected_strikeouts": 5.68, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.68, "skill_score": 71.0, "opportunity_score": 56.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 31.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3483, "model_under_probability": 0.6517, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5041, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4959, "edge_over": -0.1866, "edge_under": 0.1256, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1256, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.066, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.22, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 93.6, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-12T11:59:01.117Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -111, "expected_strikeouts": 5.68, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.68, "skill_score": 71.0, "opportunity_score": 56.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 31.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3483, "model_under_probability": 0.6517, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5041, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4959, "edge_over": -0.1866, "edge_under": 0.1256, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1256, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.066, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.22, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 93.6, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -132, "under_odds": 104, "expected_strikeouts": 5.95, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.95, "skill_score": 27.6, "opportunity_score": 41.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 59.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3855, "model_under_probability": 0.6145, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5372, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4628, "edge_over": -0.1835, "edge_under": 0.1243, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1243, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.042, "aggregate_matchup_score": 75.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.05, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 87.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-12T11:59:01.117Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -132, "under_odds": 104, "expected_strikeouts": 5.95, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.95, "skill_score": 27.6, "opportunity_score": 41.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 59.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3855, "model_under_probability": 0.6145, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5372, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4628, "edge_over": -0.1835, "edge_under": 0.1243, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1243, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.042, "aggregate_matchup_score": 75.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.05, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 87.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "pitcher_id": 669022, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -122, "under_odds": -104, "expected_strikeouts": 5.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.15, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.83, "skill_score": 44.2, "opportunity_score": 23.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 74.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.652, "model_under_probability": 0.348, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5187, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4813, "edge_over": 0.1025, "edge_under": -0.1618, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1025, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.947, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "pitcher_id": 669022, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-12T11:59:01.117Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -122, "under_odds": -104, "expected_strikeouts": 5.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.15, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.83, "skill_score": 44.2, "opportunity_score": 23.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 74.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.652, "model_under_probability": 0.348, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5187, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4813, "edge_over": 0.1025, "edge_under": -0.1618, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1025, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.947, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "pitcher_id": 676106, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-12T11:58:28.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 105, "under_odds": -145, "expected_strikeouts": 3.76, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.76, "skill_score": 14.5, "opportunity_score": 62.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 31.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3283, "model_under_probability": 0.6717, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5918, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4518, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5482, "edge_over": -0.1595, "edge_under": 0.0799, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0799, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.964, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11123.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 89.6, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-12T11:58:53.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 5.95, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.95, "skill_score": 27.6, "opportunity_score": 41.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 59.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3855, "model_under_probability": 0.6145, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.1494, "edge_under": 0.0796, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0796, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.042, "aggregate_matchup_score": 75.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.05, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 87.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "pitcher_id": 669373, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -113, "under_odds": -113, "expected_strikeouts": 6.93, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.53, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.93, "skill_score": 77.3, "opportunity_score": 50.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 38.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.391, "model_under_probability": 0.609, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5305, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5305, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.1395, "edge_under": 0.0785, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0785, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "aggregate_matchup_score": 83.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29251.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.15, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 85.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "pitcher_id": 671096, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-12T11:58:45.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 4.17, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.01, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.17, "skill_score": 21.9, "opportunity_score": 50.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.2, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 43.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3999, "model_under_probability": 0.6001, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5101, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4899, "edge_over": -0.1456, "edge_under": 0.0763, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0763, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28405.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.56, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "pitcher_id": 669160, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -128, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.2, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.33, "skill_score": 39.2, "opportunity_score": 15.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 96.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4274, "model_under_probability": 0.5726, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5289, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4711, "edge_over": -0.134, "edge_under": 0.0726, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0726, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 88.2, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "pitcher_id": 669160, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-12T11:59:01.117Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -128, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.2, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.33, "skill_score": 39.2, "opportunity_score": 15.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 96.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4274, "model_under_probability": 0.5726, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5289, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4711, "edge_over": -0.134, "edge_under": 0.0726, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0726, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 88.2, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "pitcher_id": 686218, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-12T11:58:59.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -104, "under_odds": -122, "expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "skill_score": 40.4, "opportunity_score": 34.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 73.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3784, "model_under_probability": 0.6216, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4813, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5187, "edge_over": -0.1314, "edge_under": 0.0721, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0721, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.98, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7433.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "pitcher_id": 669160, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-12T11:58:21.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -126, "under_odds": -101, "expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.2, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.33, "skill_score": 39.2, "opportunity_score": 15.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 96.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4274, "model_under_probability": 0.5726, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5575, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5025, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5259, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4741, "edge_over": -0.1301, "edge_under": 0.0701, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0701, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 88.2, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "pitcher_id": 669022, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-12T11:58:16.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -140, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 5.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.15, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.83, "skill_score": 44.2, "opportunity_score": 23.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 74.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.652, "model_under_probability": 0.348, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5505, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4495, "edge_over": 0.0687, "edge_under": -0.1282, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0687, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.947, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "pitcher_id": 686218, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -102, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "skill_score": 40.4, "opportunity_score": 34.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 73.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3784, "model_under_probability": 0.6216, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4761, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5239, "edge_over": -0.1266, "edge_under": 0.066, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.066, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.98, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7433.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "pitcher_id": 554430, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -128, "expected_strikeouts": 6.81, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.39, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.81, "skill_score": 65.5, "opportunity_score": 62.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.2, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 21.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.376, "model_under_probability": 0.624, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4711, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5289, "edge_over": -0.124, "edge_under": 0.0626, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0626, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.42, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.066, "aggregate_matchup_score": 81.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33971.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.11, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 85.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "pitcher_id": 554430, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-12T11:59:01.117Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -128, "expected_strikeouts": 6.81, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.39, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.81, "skill_score": 65.5, "opportunity_score": 62.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.2, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 21.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.376, "model_under_probability": 0.624, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4711, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5289, "edge_over": -0.124, "edge_under": 0.0626, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0626, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.42, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.066, "aggregate_matchup_score": 81.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33971.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.11, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 85.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "pitcher_id": 676106, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-12T11:57:31.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 122, "under_odds": -156, "expected_strikeouts": 3.76, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.76, "skill_score": 14.5, "opportunity_score": 62.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 31.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3283, "model_under_probability": 0.6717, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4505, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6094, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.425, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.575, "edge_over": -0.1222, "edge_under": 0.0623, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0623, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.964, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11123.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 89.6, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "pitcher_id": 686218, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-12T11:59:01.117Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -128, "expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "skill_score": 40.4, "opportunity_score": 34.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 73.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3784, "model_under_probability": 0.6216, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4711, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5289, "edge_over": -0.1216, "edge_under": 0.0602, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0602, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.98, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7433.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "pitcher_id": 676106, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 124, "under_odds": -158, "expected_strikeouts": 3.76, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.76, "skill_score": 14.5, "opportunity_score": 62.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 31.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3283, "model_under_probability": 0.6717, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4216, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5784, "edge_over": -0.1181, "edge_under": 0.0593, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0593, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.964, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11123.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 89.6, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "pitcher_id": 676106, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-12T11:59:01.117Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 124, "under_odds": -158, "expected_strikeouts": 3.76, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.76, "skill_score": 14.5, "opportunity_score": 62.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 31.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3283, "model_under_probability": 0.6717, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4216, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5784, "edge_over": -0.1181, "edge_under": 0.0593, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0593, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.964, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11123.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 89.6, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "pitcher_id": 669022, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -290, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.15, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.83, "skill_score": 44.2, "opportunity_score": 23.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 74.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.7887, "model_under_probability": 0.2113, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7436, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0451, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0451, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.947, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "pitcher_id": 701542, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 470, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "skill_score": 11.1, "opportunity_score": 39.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 55.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2186, "model_under_probability": 0.7814, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1754, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0432, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0432, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.996, "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15754.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "pitcher_id": 671096, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-12T11:57:25.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -101, "under_odds": -126, "expected_strikeouts": 4.17, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.01, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.17, "skill_score": 21.9, "opportunity_score": 50.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.2, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 43.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3999, "model_under_probability": 0.6001, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5025, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5575, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4741, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5259, "edge_over": -0.1026, "edge_under": 0.0426, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0426, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28405.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.56, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "pitcher_id": 554430, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-12T11:57:17.000Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -139, "expected_strikeouts": 6.81, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.39, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.81, "skill_score": 65.5, "opportunity_score": 62.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.2, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 21.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.376, "model_under_probability": 0.624, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5816, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4502, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5498, "edge_over": -0.1002, "edge_under": 0.0424, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0424, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.42, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.066, "aggregate_matchup_score": 81.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33971.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.11, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 85.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "J.T. Ginn", "pitcher_id": 669372, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 480, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.69, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.14, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.69, "skill_score": 24.8, "opportunity_score": 34.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 64.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2147, "model_under_probability": 0.7853, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1724, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0423, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0423, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.55, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.132, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8470.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.59, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.8, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "pitcher_id": 701542, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 230, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "skill_score": 11.1, "opportunity_score": 39.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 55.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3399, "model_under_probability": 0.6601, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.303, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0369, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0369, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.996, "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15754.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "J.T. Ginn", "pitcher_id": 669372, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 230, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.69, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.14, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.69, "skill_score": 24.8, "opportunity_score": 34.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 64.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3353, "model_under_probability": 0.6647, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.303, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0323, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0323, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.55, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.132, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8470.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.59, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.8, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "pitcher_id": 676282, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 630, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.06, "skill_score": 42.8, "opportunity_score": 29.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.3, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 70.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1662, "model_under_probability": 0.8338, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.137, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0292, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0292, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.018, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 87.8, "wind_speed_mph": 8.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "pitcher_id": 667755, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-12T11:59:01.117Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 122, "under_odds": -156, "expected_strikeouts": 5.63, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.55, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.63, "skill_score": 43.3, "opportunity_score": 62.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 23.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4772, "model_under_probability": 0.5228, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4505, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6094, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.425, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.575, "edge_over": 0.0267, "edge_under": -0.0866, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0267, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.024, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20556.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.93, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 93.6, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Lorenzen", "pitcher_id": 547179, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 400, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.97, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.75, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.97, "skill_score": 10.1, "opportunity_score": 48.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 45.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2262, "model_under_probability": 0.7738, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0262, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0262, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.059, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26336.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.46, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 62.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "pitcher_id": 554430, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-12T11:57:16.000Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 6.81, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.39, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.81, "skill_score": 65.5, "opportunity_score": 62.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.2, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 21.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.376, "model_under_probability": 0.624, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4425, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5575, "edge_over": -0.1002, "edge_under": 0.024, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.024, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.42, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.066, "aggregate_matchup_score": 81.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33971.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.11, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 85.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "pitcher_id": 671096, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 106, "under_odds": -136, "expected_strikeouts": 4.17, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.01, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.17, "skill_score": 21.9, "opportunity_score": 50.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.2, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 43.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3999, "model_under_probability": 0.6001, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4572, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5428, "edge_over": -0.0855, "edge_under": 0.0238, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0238, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28405.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.56, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "pitcher_id": 671096, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-12T11:59:01.117Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 106, "under_odds": -136, "expected_strikeouts": 4.17, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.01, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.17, "skill_score": 21.9, "opportunity_score": 50.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.2, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 43.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3999, "model_under_probability": 0.6001, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4572, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5428, "edge_over": -0.0855, "edge_under": 0.0238, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0238, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28405.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.56, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "pitcher_id": 676282, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -170, "under_odds": 132, "expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.06, "skill_score": 42.8, "opportunity_score": 29.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.3, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 70.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5453, "model_under_probability": 0.4547, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6296, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.431, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5936, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4064, "edge_over": -0.0843, "edge_under": 0.0237, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0237, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.018, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 87.8, "wind_speed_mph": 8.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "pitcher_id": 676282, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-12T11:59:01.117Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -170, "under_odds": 132, "expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.06, "skill_score": 42.8, "opportunity_score": 29.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.3, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 70.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5453, "model_under_probability": 0.4547, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6296, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.431, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5936, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4064, "edge_over": -0.0843, "edge_under": 0.0237, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0237, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.018, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 87.8, "wind_speed_mph": 8.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "pitcher_id": 607625, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 680, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.92, "skill_score": 14.7, "opportunity_score": 55.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1516, "model_under_probability": 0.8484, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1282, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0234, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0234, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.041, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "pitcher_id": 667755, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-12T11:58:35.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 120, "under_odds": -160, "expected_strikeouts": 5.63, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.55, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.63, "skill_score": 43.3, "opportunity_score": 62.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 23.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4772, "model_under_probability": 0.5228, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4248, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5752, "edge_over": 0.0227, "edge_under": -0.0926, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0227, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.024, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20556.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.93, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 93.6, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristian Javier", "pitcher_id": 664299, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -104, "under_odds": -122, "expected_strikeouts": 3.39, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.06, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.39, "skill_score": 2.2, "opportunity_score": 15.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4311, "model_under_probability": 0.5689, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4813, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5187, "edge_over": -0.0787, "edge_under": 0.0194, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0194, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.109, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14011.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "pitcher_id": 592332, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 390, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.56, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.56, "skill_score": 36.5, "opportunity_score": 63.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 29.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2221, "model_under_probability": 0.7779, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2041, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.018, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.018, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.004, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.54, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "pitcher_id": 669358, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 600, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.03, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.99, "skill_score": 16.8, "opportunity_score": 66.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 18.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1588, "model_under_probability": 0.8412, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1429, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0159, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0159, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.993, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18414.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.95, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "pitcher_id": 669358, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-12T11:58:51.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 119, "under_odds": -152, "expected_strikeouts": 4.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.03, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.99, "skill_score": 16.8, "opportunity_score": 66.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 18.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3814, "model_under_probability": 0.6186, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4566, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6032, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4308, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5692, "edge_over": -0.0752, "edge_under": 0.0154, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0154, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.993, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18414.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.95, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "pitcher_id": 676282, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 300, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.06, "skill_score": 42.8, "opportunity_score": 29.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.3, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 70.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2634, "model_under_probability": 0.7366, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.25, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0134, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0134, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.018, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 87.8, "wind_speed_mph": 8.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "pitcher_id": 607625, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 330, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.92, "skill_score": 14.7, "opportunity_score": 55.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2447, "model_under_probability": 0.7553, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2326, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0121, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0121, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.041, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "pitcher_id": 667755, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-12T11:57:57.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 114, "under_odds": -146, "expected_strikeouts": 5.63, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.55, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.63, "skill_score": 43.3, "opportunity_score": 62.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 23.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4772, "model_under_probability": 0.5228, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5935, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4405, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5595, "edge_over": 0.0099, "edge_under": -0.0707, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0099, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.024, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20556.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.93, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 93.6, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Lorenzen", "pitcher_id": 547179, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 180, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.97, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.75, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.97, "skill_score": 10.1, "opportunity_score": 48.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 45.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3651, "model_under_probability": 0.6349, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3571, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.008, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.008, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.059, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26336.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.46, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 62.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "pitcher_id": 701542, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-12T11:58:13.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 105, "under_odds": -145, "expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "skill_score": 11.1, "opportunity_score": 39.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 55.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4921, "model_under_probability": 0.5079, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5918, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4518, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5482, "edge_over": 0.0043, "edge_under": -0.0839, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0043, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.996, "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15754.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Lorenzen", "pitcher_id": 547179, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-12T11:58:28.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -151, "under_odds": 119, "expected_strikeouts": 3.97, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.75, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.97, "skill_score": 10.1, "opportunity_score": 48.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 45.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5398, "model_under_probability": 0.4602, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6016, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4566, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5685, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4315, "edge_over": -0.0618, "edge_under": 0.0036, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0036, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.059, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26336.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.46, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 62.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "J.T. Ginn", "pitcher_id": 669372, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-12T11:58:35.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -130, "under_odds": -105, "expected_strikeouts": 4.69, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.14, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.69, "skill_score": 24.8, "opportunity_score": 34.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 64.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4872, "model_under_probability": 0.5128, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5246, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4754, "edge_over": -0.078, "edge_under": 0.0006, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0006, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.55, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.132, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8470.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.59, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.8, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "pitcher_id": 592332, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-12T11:58:22.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -111, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 5.56, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.56, "skill_score": 36.5, "opportunity_score": 63.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 29.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.467, "model_under_probability": 0.533, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4959, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5041, "edge_over": -0.0591, "edge_under": -0.0019, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0019, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.004, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.54, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "pitcher_id": 669022, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -900, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.15, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.83, "skill_score": 44.2, "opportunity_score": 23.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 74.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.8965, "model_under_probability": 0.1035, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0035, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0035, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.947, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "pitcher_id": 669358, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 130, "under_odds": -166, "expected_strikeouts": 4.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.03, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.99, "skill_score": 16.8, "opportunity_score": 66.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 18.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3814, "model_under_probability": 0.6186, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6241, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4106, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5894, "edge_over": -0.0534, "edge_under": -0.0055, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0055, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.993, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18414.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.95, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "pitcher_id": 669358, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-12T11:59:01.117Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 130, "under_odds": -166, "expected_strikeouts": 4.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.03, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.99, "skill_score": 16.8, "opportunity_score": 66.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 18.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3814, "model_under_probability": 0.6186, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6241, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4106, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5894, "edge_over": -0.0534, "edge_under": -0.0055, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0055, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.993, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18414.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.95, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "pitcher_id": 669358, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 285, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.03, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.99, "skill_score": 16.8, "opportunity_score": 66.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 18.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.254, "model_under_probability": 0.746, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2597, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0057, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0057, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.993, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18414.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.95, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "J.T. Ginn", "pitcher_id": 669372, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 102, "under_odds": -130, "expected_strikeouts": 4.69, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.14, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.69, "skill_score": 24.8, "opportunity_score": 34.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 64.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4872, "model_under_probability": 0.5128, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4669, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5331, "edge_over": -0.0078, "edge_under": -0.0524, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0078, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.55, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.132, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8470.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.59, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.8, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "J.T. Ginn", "pitcher_id": 669372, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-12T11:59:01.117Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 102, "under_odds": -130, "expected_strikeouts": 4.69, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.14, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.69, "skill_score": 24.8, "opportunity_score": 34.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 64.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4872, "model_under_probability": 0.5128, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4669, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5331, "edge_over": -0.0078, "edge_under": -0.0524, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0078, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.55, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.132, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8470.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.59, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.8, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "pitcher_id": 607625, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -136, "under_odds": 106, "expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.92, "skill_score": 14.7, "opportunity_score": 55.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5238, "model_under_probability": 0.4762, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5428, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4572, "edge_over": -0.0525, "edge_under": -0.0092, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0092, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.041, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "pitcher_id": 607625, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-12T11:59:01.117Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -136, "under_odds": 106, "expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.92, "skill_score": 14.7, "opportunity_score": 55.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5238, "model_under_probability": 0.4762, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5428, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4572, "edge_over": -0.0525, "edge_under": -0.0092, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0092, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.041, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "pitcher_id": 671096, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 520, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.17, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.01, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.17, "skill_score": 21.9, "opportunity_score": 50.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.2, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 43.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1516, "model_under_probability": 0.8484, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1613, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0097, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0097, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28405.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.56, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristian Javier", "pitcher_id": 664299, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 540, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.39, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.06, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.39, "skill_score": 2.2, "opportunity_score": 15.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1465, "model_under_probability": 0.8535, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1562, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0097, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0097, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.109, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14011.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "pitcher_id": 669358, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-12T11:58:34.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 4.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.03, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.99, "skill_score": 16.8, "opportunity_score": 66.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 18.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5346, "model_under_probability": 0.4654, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5575, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4425, "edge_over": -0.0654, "edge_under": -0.0108, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0108, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.993, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18414.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.95, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "pitcher_id": 676282, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-12T11:58:54.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 128, "under_odds": -163, "expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.06, "skill_score": 42.8, "opportunity_score": 29.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.3, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 70.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3921, "model_under_probability": 0.6079, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4386, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6198, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4144, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5856, "edge_over": -0.0465, "edge_under": -0.0119, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0119, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.018, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 87.8, "wind_speed_mph": 8.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "pitcher_id": 701542, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-12T11:58:48.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -102, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "skill_score": 11.1, "opportunity_score": 39.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 55.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4921, "model_under_probability": 0.5079, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4761, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5239, "edge_over": -0.0129, "edge_under": -0.0477, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0129, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.996, "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15754.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "pitcher_id": 592332, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 190, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.56, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.56, "skill_score": 36.5, "opportunity_score": 63.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 29.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3317, "model_under_probability": 0.6683, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3448, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0131, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0131, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.004, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.54, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "pitcher_id": 607625, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-12T11:58:51.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -133, "under_odds": 104, "expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.92, "skill_score": 14.7, "opportunity_score": 55.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5238, "model_under_probability": 0.4762, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5708, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.538, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.462, "edge_over": -0.047, "edge_under": -0.014, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.014, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.041, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Lorenzen", "pitcher_id": 547179, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -140, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 3.97, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.75, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.97, "skill_score": 10.1, "opportunity_score": 48.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 45.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5398, "model_under_probability": 0.4602, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5505, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4495, "edge_over": -0.0435, "edge_under": -0.016, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.016, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.059, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26336.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.46, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 62.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Lorenzen", "pitcher_id": 547179, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-12T11:59:01.117Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -140, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 3.97, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.75, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.97, "skill_score": 10.1, "opportunity_score": 48.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 45.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5398, "model_under_probability": 0.4602, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5505, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4495, "edge_over": -0.0435, "edge_under": -0.016, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.016, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.059, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26336.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.46, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 62.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "pitcher_id": 592332, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -104, "under_odds": -122, "expected_strikeouts": 5.56, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.56, "skill_score": 36.5, "opportunity_score": 63.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 29.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.467, "model_under_probability": 0.533, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4813, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5187, "edge_over": -0.0428, "edge_under": -0.0165, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0165, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.004, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.54, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "pitcher_id": 592332, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-12T11:59:01.117Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -104, "under_odds": -122, "expected_strikeouts": 5.56, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.56, "skill_score": 36.5, "opportunity_score": 63.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 29.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.467, "model_under_probability": 0.533, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4813, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5187, "edge_over": -0.0428, "edge_under": -0.0165, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0165, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.004, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.54, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "pitcher_id": 607625, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 158, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.92, "skill_score": 14.7, "opportunity_score": 55.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3707, "model_under_probability": 0.6293, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3876, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0169, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0169, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.041, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "pitcher_id": 701542, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -104, "under_odds": -122, "expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "skill_score": 11.1, "opportunity_score": 39.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 55.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4921, "model_under_probability": 0.5079, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4813, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5187, "edge_over": -0.0177, "edge_under": -0.0416, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0177, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.996, "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15754.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "pitcher_id": 701542, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-12T11:59:01.117Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -104, "under_odds": -122, "expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "skill_score": 11.1, "opportunity_score": 39.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 55.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4921, "model_under_probability": 0.5079, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4813, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5187, "edge_over": -0.0177, "edge_under": -0.0416, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0177, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.996, "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15754.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "J.T. Ginn", "pitcher_id": 669372, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-12T11:57:23.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -112, "under_odds": -114, "expected_strikeouts": 4.69, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.14, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.69, "skill_score": 24.8, "opportunity_score": 34.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 64.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4872, "model_under_probability": 0.5128, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5283, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5327, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4979, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5021, "edge_over": -0.0411, "edge_under": -0.0199, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0199, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.55, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.132, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8470.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.59, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.8, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "pitcher_id": 669160, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 750, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.2, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.33, "skill_score": 39.2, "opportunity_score": 15.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 96.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.0967, "model_under_probability": 0.9033, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1176, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0209, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0209, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 88.2, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "pitcher_id": 607625, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-12T11:58:34.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.92, "skill_score": 14.7, "opportunity_score": 55.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5238, "model_under_probability": 0.4762, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5101, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4899, "edge_over": -0.0217, "edge_under": -0.0476, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0217, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.041, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "pitcher_id": 676282, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 138, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.06, "skill_score": 42.8, "opportunity_score": 29.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.3, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 70.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3921, "model_under_probability": 0.6079, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4202, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0281, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0281, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.018, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 87.8, "wind_speed_mph": 8.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "pitcher_id": 671096, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 250, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.17, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.01, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.17, "skill_score": 21.9, "opportunity_score": 50.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.2, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 43.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2558, "model_under_probability": 0.7442, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2857, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0299, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0299, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28405.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.56, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristian Javier", "pitcher_id": 664299, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 240, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.39, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.06, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.39, "skill_score": 2.2, "opportunity_score": 15.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2636, "model_under_probability": 0.7364, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2941, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0305, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0305, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.109, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14011.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "pitcher_id": 676282, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-12T11:58:16.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -145, "under_odds": 105, "expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.06, "skill_score": 42.8, "opportunity_score": 29.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.3, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 70.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5453, "model_under_probability": 0.4547, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5918, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5482, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4518, "edge_over": -0.0465, "edge_under": -0.0331, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0331, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.018, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 87.8, "wind_speed_mph": 8.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "pitcher_id": 676106, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 600, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.76, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.76, "skill_score": 14.5, "opportunity_score": 62.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 31.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1081, "model_under_probability": 0.8919, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1429, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0348, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0348, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.964, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11123.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 89.6, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "pitcher_id": 686218, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 420, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "skill_score": 40.4, "opportunity_score": 34.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 73.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1568, "model_under_probability": 0.8432, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1923, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0355, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0355, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.98, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7433.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "pitcher_id": 669160, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 350, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.2, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.33, "skill_score": 39.2, "opportunity_score": 15.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 96.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1702, "model_under_probability": 0.8298, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2222, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.052, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.052, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 88.2, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "J.T. Ginn", "pitcher_id": 669372, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -245, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.69, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.14, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.69, "skill_score": 24.8, "opportunity_score": 34.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 64.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6548, "model_under_probability": 0.3452, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7101, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0553, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0553, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.55, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.132, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8470.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.59, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.8, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Lorenzen", "pitcher_id": 547179, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -370, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.97, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.75, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.97, "skill_score": 10.1, "opportunity_score": 48.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 45.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7248, "model_under_probability": 0.2752, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7872, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0624, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0624, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.059, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26336.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.46, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 62.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "pitcher_id": 676106, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 285, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.76, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.76, "skill_score": 14.5, "opportunity_score": 62.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 31.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1961, "model_under_probability": 0.8039, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2597, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0636, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0636, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.964, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11123.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 89.6, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "J.T. Ginn", "pitcher_id": 669372, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -700, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.69, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.14, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.69, "skill_score": 24.8, "opportunity_score": 34.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 64.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.8103, "model_under_probability": 0.1897, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.875, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0647, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0647, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.55, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.132, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8470.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.59, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.8, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "pitcher_id": 701542, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -265, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "skill_score": 11.1, "opportunity_score": 39.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 55.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6591, "model_under_probability": 0.3409, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.726, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0669, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0669, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.996, "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15754.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "pitcher_id": 701542, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -770, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "skill_score": 11.1, "opportunity_score": 39.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 55.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.8133, "model_under_probability": 0.1867, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8851, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0718, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0718, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.996, "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15754.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 300, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.95, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.95, "skill_score": 27.6, "opportunity_score": 41.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 59.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1779, "model_under_probability": 0.8221, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.25, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0721, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0721, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.042, "aggregate_matchup_score": 75.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.05, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 87.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "pitcher_id": 554430, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 190, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.81, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.39, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.81, "skill_score": 65.5, "opportunity_score": 62.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.2, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 21.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2695, "model_under_probability": 0.7305, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3448, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0753, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0753, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.42, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.066, "aggregate_matchup_score": 81.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33971.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.11, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 85.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 330, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.68, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.68, "skill_score": 71.0, "opportunity_score": 56.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 31.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.1519, "model_under_probability": 0.8481, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2326, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0807, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0807, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.066, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.22, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 93.6, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "pitcher_id": 686218, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 200, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "skill_score": 40.4, "opportunity_score": 34.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 73.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2513, "model_under_probability": 0.7487, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.082, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.082, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.98, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7433.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "pitcher_id": 676282, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1400, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.06, "skill_score": 42.8, "opportunity_score": 29.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.3, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 70.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.8439, "model_under_probability": 0.1561, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0894, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0894, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.018, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 87.8, "wind_speed_mph": 8.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "pitcher_id": 607625, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1200, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.92, "skill_score": 14.7, "opportunity_score": 55.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8319, "model_under_probability": 0.1681, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9231, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0912, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0912, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.041, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "pitcher_id": 592332, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -3500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.56, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.56, "skill_score": 36.5, "opportunity_score": 63.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 29.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8804, "model_under_probability": 0.1196, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9722, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0918, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0918, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.004, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.54, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "pitcher_id": 607625, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -360, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.92, "skill_score": 14.7, "opportunity_score": 55.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6864, "model_under_probability": 0.3136, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7826, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0962, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0962, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.041, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "pitcher_id": 669373, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 162, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.93, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.53, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.93, "skill_score": 77.3, "opportunity_score": 50.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 38.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.283, "model_under_probability": 0.717, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3817, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0987, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0987, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "aggregate_matchup_score": 83.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29251.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.15, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 85.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "pitcher_id": 669160, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 164, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.2, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.33, "skill_score": 39.2, "opportunity_score": 15.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 96.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.28, "model_under_probability": 0.72, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3788, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0988, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0988, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 88.2, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "pitcher_id": 676282, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -410, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.06, "skill_score": 42.8, "opportunity_score": 29.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.3, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 70.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.7045, "model_under_probability": 0.2955, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8039, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0994, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0994, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.018, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 87.8, "wind_speed_mph": 8.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "pitcher_id": 669358, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -178, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.03, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.99, "skill_score": 16.8, "opportunity_score": 66.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 18.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5346, "model_under_probability": 0.4654, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6403, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1057, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1057, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.993, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18414.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.95, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "pitcher_id": 592332, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -265, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.56, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.56, "skill_score": 36.5, "opportunity_score": 63.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 29.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6168, "model_under_probability": 0.3832, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.726, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1092, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1092, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.004, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.54, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "pitcher_id": 669358, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1800, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.03, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.99, "skill_score": 16.8, "opportunity_score": 66.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 18.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.838, "model_under_probability": 0.162, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9474, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1094, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1094, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.993, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18414.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.95, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristian Javier", "pitcher_id": 664299, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -295, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.39, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.06, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.39, "skill_score": 2.2, "opportunity_score": 15.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6327, "model_under_probability": 0.3673, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7468, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1141, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1141, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.109, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14011.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "pitcher_id": 592332, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -720, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.56, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.56, "skill_score": 36.5, "opportunity_score": 63.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 29.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.762, "model_under_probability": 0.238, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.878, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.116, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.116, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.004, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.54, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "pitcher_id": 676917, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 470, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.77, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.77, "skill_score": 53.3, "opportunity_score": 48.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 60.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.0561, "model_under_probability": 0.9439, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1754, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1193, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1193, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "pitcher_id": 669358, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -460, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.03, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.99, "skill_score": 16.8, "opportunity_score": 66.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 18.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6956, "model_under_probability": 0.3044, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8214, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1258, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1258, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.993, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18414.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.95, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "pitcher_id": 671096, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -720, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.17, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.01, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.17, "skill_score": 21.9, "opportunity_score": 50.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.2, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 43.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7515, "model_under_probability": 0.2485, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.878, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1265, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1265, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28405.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.56, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "pitcher_id": 671096, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -235, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.17, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.01, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.17, "skill_score": 21.9, "opportunity_score": 50.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.2, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 43.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5742, "model_under_probability": 0.4258, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7015, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1273, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1273, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28405.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.56, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "pitcher_id": 686218, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -3500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "skill_score": 40.4, "opportunity_score": 34.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 73.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.8363, "model_under_probability": 0.1637, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9722, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1359, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1359, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.98, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7433.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 168, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.68, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.68, "skill_score": 71.0, "opportunity_score": 56.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 31.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2363, "model_under_probability": 0.7637, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3731, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1368, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1368, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.066, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.22, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 93.6, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 146, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.95, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.95, "skill_score": 27.6, "opportunity_score": 41.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 59.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2688, "model_under_probability": 0.7312, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4065, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1377, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1377, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.042, "aggregate_matchup_score": 75.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.05, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 87.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "pitcher_id": 669160, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1100, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.2, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.33, "skill_score": 39.2, "opportunity_score": 15.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 96.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.7712, "model_under_probability": 0.2288, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9167, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1455, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1455, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 88.2, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "pitcher_id": 676106, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -590, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.76, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.76, "skill_score": 14.5, "opportunity_score": 62.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 31.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.694, "model_under_probability": 0.306, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8551, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1611, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1611, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.964, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11123.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 89.6, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "pitcher_id": 676106, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -205, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.76, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.76, "skill_score": 14.5, "opportunity_score": 62.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 31.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5019, "model_under_probability": 0.4981, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6721, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1702, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1702, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.964, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11123.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 89.6, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "pitcher_id": 669160, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -340, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.2, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.33, "skill_score": 39.2, "opportunity_score": 15.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 96.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6003, "model_under_probability": 0.3997, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7727, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1724, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1724, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 88.2, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -3500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.95, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.95, "skill_score": 27.6, "opportunity_score": 41.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 59.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.7997, "model_under_probability": 0.2003, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9722, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1725, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1725, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.042, "aggregate_matchup_score": 75.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.05, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 87.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "pitcher_id": 554430, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1600, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.81, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.39, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.81, "skill_score": 65.5, "opportunity_score": 62.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.2, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 21.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.7586, "model_under_probability": 0.2414, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9412, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1826, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1826, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.42, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.066, "aggregate_matchup_score": 81.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33971.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.11, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 85.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "pitcher_id": 669373, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -2000, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.93, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.53, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.93, "skill_score": 77.3, "opportunity_score": 50.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 38.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7695, "model_under_probability": 0.2305, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9524, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1829, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1829, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "aggregate_matchup_score": 83.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29251.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.15, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 85.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "pitcher_id": 686218, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -720, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "skill_score": 40.4, "opportunity_score": 34.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 73.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.693, "model_under_probability": 0.307, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.878, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.185, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.185, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.98, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7433.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -2500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.68, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.68, "skill_score": 71.0, "opportunity_score": 56.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 31.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.7742, "model_under_probability": 0.2258, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9615, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1873, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1873, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.066, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.22, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 93.6, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "pitcher_id": 676917, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 230, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.77, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.77, "skill_score": 53.3, "opportunity_score": 48.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 60.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1091, "model_under_probability": 0.8909, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.303, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1939, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1939, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "pitcher_id": 686218, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -265, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "skill_score": 40.4, "opportunity_score": 34.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 73.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5315, "model_under_probability": 0.4685, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.726, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1945, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1945, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.98, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7433.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "pitcher_id": 554430, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -230, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.81, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.39, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.81, "skill_score": 65.5, "opportunity_score": 62.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.2, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 21.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.5, "model_under_probability": 0.5, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.697, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.197, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.197, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.42, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.066, "aggregate_matchup_score": 81.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33971.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.11, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 85.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "pitcher_id": 669373, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -260, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.93, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.53, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.93, "skill_score": 77.3, "opportunity_score": 50.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 38.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5152, "model_under_probability": 0.4848, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7222, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.207, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.207, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "aggregate_matchup_score": 83.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29251.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.15, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 85.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "pitcher_id": 669373, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -590, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.93, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.53, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.93, "skill_score": 77.3, "opportunity_score": 50.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 38.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.646, "model_under_probability": 0.354, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8551, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2091, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2091, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "aggregate_matchup_score": 83.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29251.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.15, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 85.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "pitcher_id": 554430, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -530, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.81, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.39, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.81, "skill_score": 65.5, "opportunity_score": 62.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.2, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 21.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.6322, "model_under_probability": 0.3678, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8413, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2091, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2091, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.42, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.066, "aggregate_matchup_score": 81.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33971.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.11, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 85.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -800, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.95, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.95, "skill_score": 27.6, "opportunity_score": 41.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 59.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6668, "model_under_probability": 0.3332, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8889, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2221, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2221, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.042, "aggregate_matchup_score": 75.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.05, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 87.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -670, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.68, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.68, "skill_score": 71.0, "opportunity_score": 56.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 31.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.6327, "model_under_probability": 0.3673, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8701, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2374, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2374, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.066, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.22, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 93.6, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -330, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.95, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.95, "skill_score": 27.6, "opportunity_score": 41.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 59.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5225, "model_under_probability": 0.4775, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7674, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2449, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2449, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.042, "aggregate_matchup_score": 75.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.05, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 87.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -280, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.68, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.68, "skill_score": 71.0, "opportunity_score": 56.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 31.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4844, "model_under_probability": 0.5156, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7368, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2524, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2524, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.066, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.22, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 93.6, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "pitcher_id": 676917, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -2200, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.77, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.77, "skill_score": 53.3, "opportunity_score": 48.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 60.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6956, "model_under_probability": 0.3044, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9565, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2609, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2609, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "pitcher_id": 676917, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -520, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.77, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.77, "skill_score": 53.3, "opportunity_score": 48.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 60.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5038, "model_under_probability": 0.4962, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8387, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.3349, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.3349, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "pitcher_id": 676917, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -205, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.77, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.77, "skill_score": 53.3, "opportunity_score": 48.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 60.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.33, "model_under_probability": 0.67, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6721, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.3421, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.3421, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [ { "pitcher_name": "German Marquez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "German Marquez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "German Marquez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ian Seymour", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ian Seymour", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ian Seymour", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ian Seymour", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ian Seymour", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ian Seymour", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ian Seymour", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ian Seymour", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ian Seymour", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ian Seymour", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 8.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "JR Ritchie", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "JR Ritchie", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "JR Ritchie", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jose Soriano", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jose Soriano", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jose Soriano", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jose Soriano", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jose Soriano", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jose Soriano", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Matt Boyd", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Matt Boyd", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Matt Boyd", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Matt Boyd", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Matt Boyd", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Matt Boyd", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Mitch Bratt", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Mitch Bratt", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Mitch Bratt", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Mitch Bratt", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Noah Schultz", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Noah Schultz", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Noah Schultz", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Noah Schultz", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Noah Schultz", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes 10+ Strikeouts", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 9.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Robert Gasser", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Robert Gasser", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Robert Gasser", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Robert Gasser", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Robert Gasser", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Robert Gasser", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley 10+ Strikeouts", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 9.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal 10+ Strikeouts", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 9.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal 11+ Strikeouts", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 10.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor McDonald", "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor McDonald", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor McDonald", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor McDonald", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor McDonald", "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor McDonald", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor McDonald", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Zach Thornton", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Zach Thornton", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Zach Thornton", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Zach Thornton", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Zach Thornton", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler 10+ Strikeouts", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 9.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler 11+ Strikeouts", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 10.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." } ] }