{ "date": "2026-04-15", "generated_at": "2026-04-15T08:10:02.637500", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "projection_date": "2026-04-15", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 21, "matched_count": 17, "unmatched_count": 4 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 17, "grouped_pitcher_count": 17, "sportsbook_count": 1 }, "edge_count": 17, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Shota Imanaga", "pitcher_id": 684007, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -125, "under_odds": -106, "expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.37, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.75, "skill_score": 44.3, "opportunity_score": 36.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 59.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3445, "model_under_probability": 0.6555, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5146, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5192, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4808, "edge_over": -0.2111, "edge_under": 0.1409, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1409, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.086, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21240.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.42, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Mahle", "pitcher_id": 641816, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 124, "under_odds": -166, "expected_strikeouts": 4.28, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.94, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "skill_score": 20.9, "opportunity_score": 49.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 53.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2724, "model_under_probability": 0.7276, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6241, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.417, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.583, "edge_over": -0.174, "edge_under": 0.1035, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1035, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.087, "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9084.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.93, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 75.6, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "pitcher_id": 656302, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -136, "under_odds": 102, "expected_strikeouts": 6.37, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.39, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.37, "skill_score": 88.9, "opportunity_score": 53.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.4, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 47.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4425, "model_under_probability": 0.5575, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5379, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4621, "edge_over": -0.1338, "edge_under": 0.0625, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0625, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.997, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.06, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 58.6, "wind_speed_mph": 7.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryce Elder", "pitcher_id": 693821, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 116, "under_odds": -154, "expected_strikeouts": 4.93, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "skill_score": 23.2, "opportunity_score": 50.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.5, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 44.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5253, "model_under_probability": 0.4747, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.433, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.567, "edge_over": 0.0623, "edge_under": -0.1316, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0623, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.993, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24573.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez", "pitcher_id": 593958, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -148, "under_odds": 112, "expected_strikeouts": 4.57, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.57, "skill_score": 11.5, "opportunity_score": 70.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 19.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4676, "model_under_probability": 0.5324, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5968, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4717, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5585, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4415, "edge_over": -0.1292, "edge_under": 0.0607, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0607, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.079, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23520.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.39, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 93.2, "wind_speed_mph": 11.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Flaherty", "pitcher_id": 656427, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 114, "under_odds": -152, "expected_strikeouts": 5.9, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.17, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.9, "skill_score": 35.8, "opportunity_score": 38.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.9, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 64.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5155, "model_under_probability": 0.4845, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6032, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4365, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5635, "edge_over": 0.0482, "edge_under": -0.1187, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0482, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.956, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 32117.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.29, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Kochanowicz", "pitcher_id": 686799, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 112, "under_odds": -148, "expected_strikeouts": 3.16, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.16, "skill_score": 8.0, "opportunity_score": 42.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 54.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3849, "model_under_probability": 0.6151, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4717, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5968, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4415, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5585, "edge_over": -0.0868, "edge_under": 0.0183, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0183, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.091, "aggregate_matchup_score": 17.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12726.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.49, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 112, "under_odds": -148, "expected_strikeouts": 4.11, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.19, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "skill_score": 17.8, "opportunity_score": 26.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 88.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3895, "model_under_probability": 0.6105, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4717, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5968, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4415, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5585, "edge_over": -0.0822, "edge_under": 0.0137, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0137, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.99, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.2, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 64.4, "wind_speed_mph": 19.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "pitcher_id": 680694, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 108, "under_odds": -144, "expected_strikeouts": 5.72, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.14, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.72, "skill_score": 43.1, "opportunity_score": 32.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.9, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 74.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4901, "model_under_probability": 0.5099, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4489, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5511, "edge_over": 0.0093, "edge_under": -0.0803, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0093, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.42, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.951, "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13080.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 93.2, "wind_speed_mph": 11.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Luis Gil", "pitcher_id": 661563, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -114, "under_odds": -114, "expected_strikeouts": 4.95, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.43, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.95, "skill_score": 5.6, "opportunity_score": 27.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 78.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5284, "model_under_probability": 0.4716, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5327, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5327, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.0043, "edge_under": -0.0611, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0043, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.52, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.118, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15506.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.89, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Slade Cecconi", "pitcher_id": 677944, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 112, "under_odds": -148, "expected_strikeouts": 4.23, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.19, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.23, "skill_score": 19.4, "opportunity_score": 38.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 54.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4103, "model_under_probability": 0.5897, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4717, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5968, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4415, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5585, "edge_over": -0.0614, "edge_under": -0.0071, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0071, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.019, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15077.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.0, "wind_speed_mph": 10.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Chad Patrick", "pitcher_id": 694477, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 104, "under_odds": -138, "expected_strikeouts": 4.66, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.43, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.66, "skill_score": 19.6, "opportunity_score": 22.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 95.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4824, "model_under_probability": 0.5176, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5798, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4581, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5419, "edge_over": -0.0078, "edge_under": -0.0622, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0078, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.052, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9640.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 58.6, "wind_speed_mph": 7.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jake Irvin", "pitcher_id": 663623, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 124, "under_odds": -166, "expected_strikeouts": 4.11, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.96, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "skill_score": 33.1, "opportunity_score": 35.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 62.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3895, "model_under_probability": 0.6105, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6241, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.417, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.583, "edge_over": -0.0569, "edge_under": -0.0136, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0136, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.038, "aggregate_matchup_score": 29.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33345.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.5, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Chris Paddack", "pitcher_id": 663978, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -132, "expected_strikeouts": 3.66, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.54, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.66, "skill_score": 24.0, "opportunity_score": 30.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 77.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4833, "model_under_probability": 0.5167, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4677, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5323, "edge_over": -0.0167, "edge_under": -0.0523, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0167, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17770.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.13, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "pitcher_id": 669160, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -160, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 4.3, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.29, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "skill_score": 5.7, "opportunity_score": 19.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 83.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5955, "model_under_probability": 0.4045, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5752, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4248, "edge_over": -0.0199, "edge_under": -0.05, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0199, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.0, "wind_speed_mph": 10.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "pitcher_id": 607625, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -108, "under_odds": -122, "expected_strikeouts": 4.65, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.65, "skill_score": 21.7, "opportunity_score": 48.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 52.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4807, "model_under_probability": 0.5193, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5192, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4858, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5142, "edge_over": -0.0385, "edge_under": -0.0302, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0302, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.06, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.19, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Simeon Woods Richardson", "pitcher_id": 680573, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 114, "under_odds": -152, "expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.43, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.33, "skill_score": 9.4, "opportunity_score": 29.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 67.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4274, "model_under_probability": 0.5726, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6032, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4365, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5635, "edge_over": -0.0399, "edge_under": -0.0306, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0306, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.976, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17855.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 62.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [ { "pitcher_name": "Connelly Early", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jesse Scholtens", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jesus Luzardo", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Rhett Lowder", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." } ] }