Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-09-04 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-09-04

56 matched props 21 unmatched

Newer: 2026-09-05 Older: 2026-09-03

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 56

Grouped Pitchers 19

Books 3

Unmatched Inputs 21

Projection Source strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder

2026-09-26 2026-09-25 2026-09-24 2026-09-23 2026-09-22 2026-09-21 2026-09-20 2026-09-19

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-09-04 | Raw sportsbook rows: 56 | Grouped pitcher entries: 19 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-09-04/strikeout_edges_2026-09-04.json

Blake Snell

LAD vs WSH | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 6.35

Strongest Gap Under +16.94%

Best Line 7.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

7.5

O -125 / U -105

Over gap -23.72% / Under gap +16.94%

Under +16.94%

DraftKings

7.5

O -113 / U -113

Over gap -21.21% / Under gap +15.11%

Under +15.11%

FanDuel

7.5

O -104 / U -122

Over gap -19.14% / Under gap +13.21%

Under +13.21%

Model O 31.8% | U 68.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 74.6

Walker Buehler

SD vs NYY | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 3.74

Strongest Gap Under +14.04%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O -111 / U -115

Over gap -20.14% / Under gap +14.04%

Under +14.04%

DraftKings

4.5

O -103 / U -121

Over gap -18.27% / Under gap +12.78%

Under +12.78%

BetMGM

4.5

O -105 / U -125

Over gap -18.75% / Under gap +11.97%

Under +11.97%

Model O 32.5% | U 67.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 20.1

Cristian Javier

HOU vs AZ | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 3.63

Strongest Gap Under +13.90%

Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

4.5

O -105 / U -125

Over gap -20.68% / Under gap +13.90%

Under +13.90%

DraftKings

4.5

O +113 / U -144

Over gap -16.41% / Under gap +10.44%

Under +10.44%

FanDuel

4.5

O +114 / U -146

Over gap -16.19% / Under gap +10.11%

Under +10.11%

Model O 30.5% | U 69.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 30.1

Logan Allen

CLE vs DET | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.27

Strongest Gap Over +13.81%

Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

3.5

O +121 / U -155

Over gap +13.81% / Under gap -19.84%

Over +13.81%

FanDuel

3.5

O +120 / U -154

Over gap +13.61% / Under gap -19.69%

Over +13.61%

BetMGM

3.5

O +110 / U -150

Over gap +11.44% / Under gap -19.06%

Over +11.44%

Model O 59.1% | U 40.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 29.6

Ranger Suarez

BOS vs BAL | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.70

Strongest Gap Under +13.71%

Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

5.5

O -116 / U -111

Over gap -20.02% / Under gap +13.71%

Under +13.71%

FanDuel

5.5

O -111 / U -115

Over gap -18.93% / Under gap +12.83%

Under +12.83%

BetMGM

5.5

O +100 / U -135

Over gap -16.32% / Under gap +8.87%

Under +8.87%

Model O 33.7% | U 66.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 50.2

Max Fried

NYY vs SD | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.29

Strongest Gap Over +12.87%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O +122 / U -156

Over gap +12.87% / Under gap -18.86%

Over +12.87%

FanDuel

4.5

O +116 / U -148

Over gap +11.62% / Under gap -17.60%

Over +11.62%

BetMGM

3.5

O -175 / U +130

Over gap +9.59% / Under gap -16.71%

Over +9.59%

Model O 57.9% | U 42.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 55.7

Erick Fedde

CWS vs MIN | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.07

Strongest Gap Over +12.80%

Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

3.5

O +133 / U -171

Over gap +12.80% / Under gap -18.82%

Over +12.80%

FanDuel

3.5

O +132 / U -170

Over gap +12.62% / Under gap -18.68%

Over +12.62%

BetMGM

2.5

O -160 / U +120

Over gap +12.30% / Under gap -19.29%

Over +12.30%

Model O 55.7% | U 44.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 35.0

Chris Sale

ATL vs PHI | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 6.54

Strongest Gap Under +8.45%

Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

6.5

O -156 / U +122

Over gap -14.44% / Under gap +8.45%

Under +8.45%

DraftKings

6.5

O -151 / U +119

Over gap -13.66% / Under gap +7.84%

Under +7.84%

BetMGM

7.5

O +115 / U -155

Over gap -12.30% / Under gap +5.01%

Under +5.01%

Model O 46.5% | U 53.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 79.4

Cristopher Sánchez

PHI vs ATL | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 6.12

Strongest Gap Under +7.91%

Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

6.5

O -125 / U -105

Over gap -14.69% / Under gap +7.91%

Under +7.91%

FanDuel

6.5

O -118 / U -108

Over gap -13.26% / Under gap +7.21%

Under +7.21%

DraftKings

6.5

O -118 / U -110

Over gap -13.26% / Under gap +6.75%

Under +6.75%

Model O 40.9% | U 59.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 58.6

Nick Martinez

TB vs TEX | 2 books

Strong

Adj K 3.77

Strongest Gap Over +5.33%

Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

3.5

O +122 / U -156

Over gap +5.33% / Under gap -11.32%

Over +5.33%

FanDuel

3.5

O +110 / U -140

Over gap +2.76% / Under gap -8.71%

Over +2.76%

Model O 50.4% | U 49.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 33.0

Zebby Matthews

MIN vs CWS | 3 books

Lean

Adj K 4.84

Strongest Gap Over +2.10%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O +104 / U -132

Over gap +2.10% / Under gap -8.02%

Over +2.10%

DraftKings

4.5

O -105 / U -122

Over gap -0.10% / Under gap -6.07%

No Play

BetMGM

4.5

O -105 / U -125

Over gap -0.10% / Under gap -6.68%

No Play

Model O 51.1% | U 48.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 54.4

Shota Imanaga

CHC vs MIA | 3 books

Lean

Adj K 5.00

Strongest Gap Under +1.70%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O +118 / U -150

Over gap -7.57% / Under gap +1.70%

Under +1.70%

DraftKings

5.5

O +117 / U -154

Over gap -7.78% / Under gap +1.07%

No Play

BetMGM

5.5

O +120 / U -160

Over gap -7.15% / Under gap +0.16%

No Play

Model O 38.3% | U 61.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.4

Ryan Feltner

COL vs STL | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 4.14

Strongest Gap No Play +1.35%

Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

3.5

O -125 / U -105

Over gap +1.35% / Under gap -8.13%

No Play

FanDuel

3.5

O -138 / U +108

Over gap -1.07% / Under gap -4.99%

No Play

DraftKings

3.5

O -147 / U +115

Over gap -2.60% / Under gap -3.42%

No Play

Model O 56.9% | U 43.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 43.9

Keider Montero

DET vs CLE | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 3.25

Strongest Gap No Play +0.54%

Best Line 2.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

2.5

O -151 / U +117

Over gap +0.54% / Under gap -6.78%

No Play

BetMGM

2.5

O -155 / U +115

Over gap -0.08% / Under gap -7.21%

No Play

FanDuel

2.5

O -162 / U +126

Over gap -1.13% / Under gap -4.95%

No Play

Model O 60.7% | U 39.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 36.4

Shane Baz

BAL vs BOS | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 5.12

Strongest Gap No Play -0.07%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O -158 / U +124

Over gap -5.81% / Under gap -0.07%

No Play

DraftKings

4.5

O -153 / U +121

Over gap -5.04% / Under gap -0.68%

No Play

BetMGM

4.5

O -150 / U +110

Over gap -4.57% / Under gap -3.05%

No Play

Model O 55.4% | U 44.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 46.0

Logan Gilbert

SEA vs ATH | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 6.62

Strongest Gap No Play -1.23%

Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

6.5

O +105 / U -140

Over gap -1.23% / Under gap -5.88%

No Play

DraftKings

6.5

O -106 / U -120

Over gap -3.91% / Under gap -2.10%

No Play

FanDuel

6.5

O -104 / U -122

Over gap -3.43% / Under gap -2.50%

No Play

Model O 47.5% | U 52.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 74.8

Andre Pallante

STL vs COL | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 3.23

Strongest Gap No Play -1.36%

Best Line 2.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

2.5

O -161 / U +125

Over gap -1.36% / Under gap -4.77%

No Play

FanDuel

2.5

O -164 / U +128

Over gap -1.79% / Under gap -4.19%

No Play

BetMGM

2.5

O -175 / U +130

Over gap -3.31% / Under gap -3.81%

No Play

Model O 60.3% | U 39.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 42.8

Merrill Kelly

AZ vs HOU | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 4.37

Strongest Gap No Play -1.75%

Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

4.5

O +105 / U -140

Over gap -5.36% / Under gap -1.75%

No Play

FanDuel

4.5

O +120 / U -154

Over gap -2.03% / Under gap -4.05%

No Play

DraftKings

4.5

O +118 / U -154

Over gap -2.45% / Under gap -4.05%

No Play

Model O 43.4% | U 56.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 46.2

Janson Junk

MIA vs CHC | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 3.47

Strongest Gap No Play -2.05%

Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

3.5

O +114 / U -144

Over gap -2.05% / Under gap -3.70%

No Play

FanDuel

3.5

O +114 / U -146

Over gap -2.05% / Under gap -4.03%

No Play

BetMGM

3.5

O +105 / U -140

Over gap -4.10% / Under gap -3.01%

No Play

Model O 44.7% | U 55.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 24.9

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.