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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-07-01 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-07-01
66 matched props 34 unmatched
Newer: 2026-07-02 Older: 2026-06-30

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 66
Grouped Pitchers 16
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 34
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-07-17 2026-07-16 2026-07-15 2026-07-14 2026-07-13 2026-07-12 2026-07-11 2026-07-10

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-07-01 | Raw sportsbook rows: 66 | Grouped pitcher entries: 16 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-07-01/strikeout_edges_2026-07-01.json
Paul Skenes headshot

Paul Skenes
PIT vs PHI | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.82
Strongest Gap Under +18.19%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O -162 / U +122
Over gap -25.07% / Under gap +18.19%
Under +18.19%
BetMGM
7.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -24.70% / Under gap +17.25%
Under +17.25%
FanDuel
6.5
O -152 / U +114
Over gap -23.56% / Under gap +16.51%
Under +16.51%
DraftKings
7.5
O +114 / U -145
Over gap -21.43% / Under gap +15.52%
Under +15.52%
FanDuel
8.5
O +250 / U --
Over gap -12.05% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +130 / U --
Over gap -18.18% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -4500 / U --
Over gap -19.05% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -1100 / U --
Over gap -26.60% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -360 / U --
Over gap -27.83% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 36.8% | U 63.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 76.9
Max Meyer headshot

Max Meyer
MIA vs COL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.87
Strongest Gap Under +16.08%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap -23.70% / Under gap +16.08%
Under +16.08%
DraftKings
6.5
O +121 / U -155
Over gap -21.44% / Under gap +15.41%
Under +15.41%
FanDuel
5.5
O -128 / U +104
Over gap -19.84% / Under gap +14.68%
Under +14.68%
Model O 36.3% | U 63.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 48.4
Seth Lugo headshot

Seth Lugo
KC vs TB | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 4.88
Strongest Gap Over +15.78%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +178 / U --
Over gap +15.78% / Under gap --
Over +15.78%
FanDuel
5.5
O +370 / U --
Over gap +15.18% / Under gap --
Over +15.18%
FanDuel
4.5
O +144 / U -178
Over gap +10.77% / Under gap -15.78%
Over +10.77%
FanDuel
3.5
O -140 / U +110
Over gap +9.78% / Under gap -15.73%
Over +9.78%
BetMGM
3.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap +6.57% / Under gap -13.56%
Over +6.57%
FanDuel
2.5
O -400 / U --
Over gap +2.84% / Under gap --
Over +2.84%
DraftKings
4.5
O +101 / U -129
Over gap +2.00% / Under gap -8.08%
Over +2.00%
Model O 51.7% | U 48.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 42.4
Walker Buehler headshot

Walker Buehler
SD vs CHC | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.29
Strongest Gap Under +15.78%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -174 / U +132
Over gap -22.38% / Under gap +15.78%
Under +15.78%
DraftKings
4.5
O +129 / U -165
Over gap -19.03% / Under gap +13.10%
Under +13.10%
BetMGM
3.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -19.66% / Under gap +12.37%
Under +12.37%
Model O 41.1% | U 58.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 27.3
Will Warren headshot

Will Warren
NYY vs DET | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.30
Strongest Gap Under +11.70%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap -18.69% / Under gap +11.70%
Under +11.70%
DraftKings
5.5
O -141 / U +111
Over gap -15.66% / Under gap +9.76%
Under +9.76%
FanDuel
5.5
O -128 / U +104
Over gap -13.29% / Under gap +8.13%
Under +8.13%
Model O 42.9% | U 57.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 52.4
Taj Bradley headshot

Taj Bradley
MIN vs HOU | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.19
Strongest Gap Under +11.19%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -134 / U +110
Over gap -16.07% / Under gap +11.19%
Under +11.19%
DraftKings
5.5
O -138 / U +108
Over gap -16.79% / Under gap +10.73%
Under +10.73%
BetMGM
5.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap -13.36% / Under gap +6.43%
Under +6.43%
Model O 41.2% | U 58.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 56.9
Michael McGreevy headshot

Michael McGreevy
STL vs ATL | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 2.83
Strongest Gap Under +7.65%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O +118 / U -154
Over gap -14.15% / Under gap +7.65%
Under +7.65%
BetMGM
3.5
O +120 / U -160
Over gap -13.73% / Under gap +6.74%
Under +6.74%
FanDuel
3.5
O +128 / U -172
Over gap -12.14% / Under gap +5.04%
Under +5.04%
FanDuel
3.5
O +126 / U -172
Over gap -12.53% / Under gap +5.04%
Under +5.04%
FanDuel
5.5
O +680 / U --
Over gap -4.50% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +300 / U --
Over gap -7.90% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -215 / U --
Over gap -16.06% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 31.7% | U 68.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 23.4
MacKenzie Gore headshot

MacKenzie Gore
TEX vs CLE | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.71
Strongest Gap Under +6.49%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -166 / U +124
Over gap -13.54% / Under gap +6.49%
Under +6.49%
DraftKings
5.5
O -153 / U +119
Over gap -11.60% / Under gap +5.47%
Under +5.47%
BetMGM
6.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -12.38% / Under gap +4.76%
Under +4.76%
Model O 48.9% | U 51.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 64.1
Freddy Peralta headshot

Freddy Peralta
NYM vs TOR | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.51
Strongest Gap Over +6.45%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap +6.45% / Under gap -13.38%
Over +6.45%
FanDuel
4.5
O -132 / U +100
Over gap +4.10% / Under gap -11.00%
Over +4.10%
DraftKings
4.5
O -135 / U +106
Over gap +3.55% / Under gap -9.54%
Over +3.55%
Model O 61.0% | U 39.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 63.9
Kyle Freeland headshot

Kyle Freeland
COL vs MIA | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.88
Strongest Gap Under +5.72%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O +115 / U -146
Over gap -11.58% / Under gap +5.72%
Under +5.72%
FanDuel
3.5
O -164 / U +134
Over gap -9.74% / Under gap +4.88%
Under +4.88%
BetMGM
3.5
O -140 / U +105
Over gap -5.95% / Under gap -1.16%
No Play
Model O 34.9% | U 65.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 36.3
Zack Wheeler headshot

Zack Wheeler
PHI vs PIT | 8 books
Play
Adj K 7.11
Strongest Gap Under +3.51%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O -164 / U +134
Over gap -8.37% / Under gap +3.51%
Under +3.51%
FanDuel
6.5
O -152 / U +124
Over gap -6.57% / Under gap +1.61%
Under +1.61%
DraftKings
7.5
O +115 / U -147
Over gap -5.18% / Under gap -0.84%
No Play
FanDuel
8.5
O +220 / U --
Over gap -0.90% / Under gap --
No Play
BetMGM
7.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap -5.18% / Under gap -2.11%
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +112 / U --
Over gap -5.84% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -1200 / U --
Over gap -13.80% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -420 / U --
Over gap -14.18% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 53.8% | U 46.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 87.1
Andrew Abbott headshot

Andrew Abbott
CIN vs MIL | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 4.00
Strongest Gap Under +2.96%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -10.58% / Under gap +2.96%
Under +2.96%
DraftKings
4.5
O +127 / U -163
Over gap -7.01% / Under gap +0.98%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +136 / U -168
Over gap -5.33% / Under gap +0.27%
No Play
Model O 37.0% | U 63.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 45.7
Joey Cantillo headshot

Joey Cantillo
CLE vs TEX | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 5.34
Strongest Gap Under +2.42%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -104 / U -118
Over gap -7.53% / Under gap +2.42%
Under +2.42%
DraftKings
5.5
O -108 / U -118
Over gap -8.47% / Under gap +2.42%
Under +2.42%
BetMGM
5.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -6.55% / Under gap -0.90%
No Play
Model O 43.5% | U 56.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 56.3
J.t. Ginn headshot

J.t. Ginn
ATH vs LAD | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 4.82
Strongest Gap Over +2.27%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +106 / U -130
Over gap +2.27% / Under gap -7.33%
Over +2.27%
BetMGM
4.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap +2.03% / Under gap -9.14%
Over +2.03%
DraftKings
4.5
O +101 / U -129
Over gap +1.06% / Under gap -7.14%
No Play
Model O 50.8% | U 49.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 48.6
Zac Gallen headshot

Zac Gallen
AZ vs SF | 2 books
No Play
Adj K 4.34
Strongest Gap No Play +0.84%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -146 / U +114
Over gap +0.84% / Under gap -6.92%
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap +0.19% / Under gap -7.81%
No Play
Model O 60.2% | U 39.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 52.6
Colin Rea headshot

Colin Rea
CHC vs SD | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 4.05
Strongest Gap No Play -1.25%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -144 / U +118
Over gap -3.64% / Under gap -1.25%
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O -144 / U +113
Over gap -3.64% / Under gap -2.33%
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O -140 / U +105
Over gap -2.95% / Under gap -4.16%
No Play
Model O 55.4% | U 44.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Confirmed lineup | Matchup 42.9

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.