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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-07-02 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-07-02
70 matched props 40 unmatched
Newer: 2026-07-03 Older: 2026-07-01

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 70
Grouped Pitchers 12
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 40
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-07-17 2026-07-16 2026-07-15 2026-07-14 2026-07-13 2026-07-12 2026-07-11 2026-07-10

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-07-02 | Raw sportsbook rows: 70 | Grouped pitcher entries: 12 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-07-02/strikeout_edges_2026-07-02.json
Bryce Miller headshot

Bryce Miller
SEA vs LAA | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.91
Strongest Gap Under +29.15%
Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
6.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -36.44% / Under gap +29.15%
Under +29.15%
FanDuel
6.5
O -132 / U +104
Over gap -32.56% / Under gap +26.64%
Under +26.64%
DraftKings
6.5
O -123 / U -104
Over gap -30.82% / Under gap +24.68%
Under +24.68%
Model O 24.3% | U 75.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 57.9
Jacob Misiorowski headshot

Jacob Misiorowski
MIL vs CIN | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 6.23
Strongest Gap Under +28.61%
Best Line 9.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
9.5
O +108 / U -138
Over gap -34.67% / Under gap +28.61%
Under +28.61%
FanDuel
9.5
O +108 / U -138
Over gap -34.67% / Under gap +28.61%
Under +28.61%
DraftKings
9.5
O +109 / U -139
Over gap -34.44% / Under gap +28.43%
Under +28.43%
BetMGM
9.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -35.37% / Under gap +28.26%
Under +28.26%
FanDuel
5.5
O -3500 / U --
Over gap -41.20% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
8.5
O -186 / U --
Over gap -44.38% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O -1000 / U --
Over gap -48.54% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O -430 / U --
Over gap -50.79% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 13.4% | U 86.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 79.1
Hurston Waldrep headshot

Hurston Waldrep
ATL vs STL | 4 books
Strong
Adj K 4.82
Strongest Gap Over +21.40%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +240 / U --
Over gap +21.40% / Under gap --
Over +21.40%
FanDuel
3.5
O +110 / U -140
Over gap +19.68% / Under gap -25.63%
Over +19.68%
FanDuel
5.5
O +520 / U --
Over gap +19.40% / Under gap --
Over +19.40%
FanDuel
2.5
O -215 / U --
Over gap +14.03% / Under gap --
Over +14.03%
Model O 50.8% | U 49.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 51.9
Davis Martin headshot

Davis Martin
CWS vs CLE | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 3.91
Strongest Gap Under +18.03%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -25.32% / Under gap +18.03%
Under +18.03%
DraftKings
4.5
O -137 / U +107
Over gap -22.35% / Under gap +16.23%
Under +16.23%
FanDuel
4.5
O -136 / U +106
Over gap -22.17% / Under gap +16.00%
Under +16.00%
FanDuel
4.5
O -136 / U +106
Over gap -22.17% / Under gap +16.00%
Under +16.00%
FanDuel
6.5
O +350 / U --
Over gap -9.90% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +164 / U --
Over gap -16.13% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1100 / U --
Over gap -20.04% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -350 / U --
Over gap -24.86% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 35.5% | U 64.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 34.5
Nathan Eovaldi headshot

Nathan Eovaldi
TEX vs DET | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.73
Strongest Gap Under +15.70%
Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
6.5
O -140 / U +105
Over gap -22.81% / Under gap +15.70%
Under +15.70%
DraftKings
6.5
O -115 / U -111
Over gap -17.97% / Under gap +11.87%
Under +11.87%
FanDuel
6.5
O -111 / U -115
Over gap -17.09% / Under gap +10.99%
Under +10.99%
Model O 35.5% | U 64.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 57.8
Stephen Kolek headshot

Stephen Kolek
KC vs TB | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 4.03
Strongest Gap Over +13.75%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +320 / U --
Over gap +13.75% / Under gap --
Over +13.75%
DraftKings
3.5
O +139 / U -178
Over gap +13.19% / Under gap -19.06%
Over +13.19%
FanDuel
3.5
O +136 / U -174
Over gap +12.66% / Under gap -18.53%
Over +12.66%
FanDuel
3.5
O +136 / U -174
Over gap +12.66% / Under gap -18.53%
Over +12.66%
FanDuel
5.5
O +750 / U --
Over gap +11.74% / Under gap --
Over +11.74%
BetMGM
3.5
O +125 / U -165
Over gap +10.59% / Under gap -17.29%
Over +10.59%
FanDuel
2.5
O -205 / U --
Over gap +6.10% / Under gap --
Over +6.10%
Model O 37.6% | U 62.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 34.5
Dustin May headshot

Dustin May
STL vs ATL | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 4.09
Strongest Gap Under +9.01%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O -120 / U -110
Over gap -15.94% / Under gap +9.01%
Under +9.01%
FanDuel
4.5
O -104 / U -122
Over gap -12.37% / Under gap +6.44%
Under +6.44%
FanDuel
4.5
O -104 / U -122
Over gap -12.37% / Under gap +6.44%
Under +6.44%
DraftKings
4.5
O -101 / U -126
Over gap -11.64% / Under gap +5.64%
Under +5.64%
FanDuel
6.5
O +450 / U --
Over gap -3.92% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +215 / U --
Over gap -7.36% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -770 / U --
Over gap -14.40% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -260 / U --
Over gap -16.16% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 38.6% | U 61.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 28.7
Ryan Gusto headshot

Ryan Gusto
MIA vs COL | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 4.48
Strongest Gap Over +7.07%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +750 / U --
Over gap +7.07% / Under gap --
Over +7.07%
FanDuel
5.5
O +330 / U --
Over gap +7.03% / Under gap --
Over +7.03%
FanDuel
4.5
O +148 / U --
Over gap +4.95% / Under gap --
Over +4.95%
FanDuel
3.5
O -150 / U +118
Over gap +2.38% / Under gap -8.25%
Over +2.38%
FanDuel
3.5
O -150 / U +118
Over gap +2.38% / Under gap -8.25%
Over +2.38%
DraftKings
3.5
O -159 / U +125
Over gap +0.99% / Under gap -6.82%
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap +0.84% / Under gap -7.83%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -460 / U --
Over gap -3.31% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 18.8% | U 81.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 56.4
Michael Lorenzen headshot

Michael Lorenzen
COL vs MIA | 7 books
Play
Adj K 4.27
Strongest Gap Over +4.36%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +340 / U --
Over gap +4.36% / Under gap --
Over +4.36%
FanDuel
4.5
O +154 / U --
Over gap +2.34% / Under gap --
Over +2.34%
BetMGM
3.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap -0.94% / Under gap -6.68%
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O -167 / U +131
Over gap -3.49% / Under gap -2.35%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -162 / U +126
Over gap -2.77% / Under gap -3.31%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -162 / U +126
Over gap -2.77% / Under gap -3.31%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -440 / U --
Over gap -5.08% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 27.1% | U 72.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 40.9
Slade Cecconi headshot

Slade Cecconi
CLE vs CWS | 8 books
Lean
Adj K 4.17
Strongest Gap Under +2.56%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -10.01% / Under gap +2.56%
Under +2.56%
FanDuel
4.5
O +118 / U -150
Over gap -5.88% / Under gap +0.01%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +540 / U --
Over gap -0.46% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +120 / U -154
Over gap -5.46% / Under gap -0.62%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O +127 / U -163
Over gap -4.06% / Under gap -1.97%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +255 / U --
Over gap -2.59% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -215 / U --
Over gap -10.83% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -650 / U --
Over gap -11.52% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 40.0% | U 60.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 43.3
Randy Vásquez headshot

Randy Vásquez
SD vs LAD | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 3.06
Strongest Gap Under +2.46%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O +123 / U -157
Over gap -8.39% / Under gap +2.46%
Under +2.46%
FanDuel
3.5
O +128 / U -164
Over gap -7.41% / Under gap +1.43%
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O +130 / U -175
Over gap -7.03% / Under gap -0.09%
No Play
Model O 36.4% | U 63.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 9.7
Framber Valdez headshot

Framber Valdez
DET vs TEX | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 5.13
Strongest Gap No Play +0.87%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O +112 / U -143
Over gap -6.89% / Under gap +0.87%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +114 / U -146
Over gap -6.45% / Under gap +0.37%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -5.20% / Under gap -2.09%
No Play
Model O 40.3% | U 59.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 51.9

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.