{ "date": "2026-07-01", "generated_at": "2026-07-01T22:18:26.942396", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "projection_date": "2026-07-01", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 100, "matched_count": 66, "unmatched_count": 34 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 66, "grouped_pitcher_count": 16, "sportsbook_count": 3 }, "edge_count": 66, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-01T11:58:01.607Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -162, "under_odds": 122, "expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.33, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.82, "skill_score": 40.7, "opportunity_score": 52.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 53.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3676, "model_under_probability": 0.6324, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6183, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5785, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4215, "edge_over": -0.2507, "edge_under": 0.1819, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1819, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.49, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.092, "aggregate_matchup_score": 76.9, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.38, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-01T11:57:24.000Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -135, "expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.33, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.82, "skill_score": 40.7, "opportunity_score": 52.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 53.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.253, "model_under_probability": 0.747, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4653, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5347, "edge_over": -0.247, "edge_under": 0.1725, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1725, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.49, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.092, "aggregate_matchup_score": 76.9, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.38, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -152, "under_odds": 114, "expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.33, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.82, "skill_score": 40.7, "opportunity_score": 52.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 53.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3676, "model_under_probability": 0.6324, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6032, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5635, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4365, "edge_over": -0.2356, "edge_under": 0.1651, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1651, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.49, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.092, "aggregate_matchup_score": 76.9, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.38, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "pitcher_id": 676974, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-01T11:57:53.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 4.87, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.87, "skill_score": 38.9, "opportunity_score": 51.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 43.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.363, "model_under_probability": 0.637, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5575, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4425, "edge_over": -0.237, "edge_under": 0.1608, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1608, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.064, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.4, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9067.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.44, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "pitcher_id": 607625, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 178, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.88, "skill_score": 11.8, "opportunity_score": 62.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 28.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5175, "model_under_probability": 0.4825, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3597, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.1578, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1578, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.955, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.4, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.54, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.1, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "pitcher_id": 621111, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-01T11:58:01.607Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -174, "under_odds": 132, "expected_strikeouts": 3.29, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.1, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.29, "skill_score": 11.9, "opportunity_score": 22.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 82.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4112, "model_under_probability": 0.5888, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.635, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.431, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5957, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4043, "edge_over": -0.2238, "edge_under": 0.1578, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1578, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.083, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.3, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15814.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.01, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 92.3, "wind_speed_mph": 12.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-01T11:57:38.000Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 114, "under_odds": -145, "expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.33, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.82, "skill_score": 40.7, "opportunity_score": 52.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 53.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.253, "model_under_probability": 0.747, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5918, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4412, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5588, "edge_over": -0.2143, "edge_under": 0.1552, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1552, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.49, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.092, "aggregate_matchup_score": 76.9, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.38, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "pitcher_id": 676974, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-01T11:57:36.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 121, "under_odds": -155, "expected_strikeouts": 4.87, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.87, "skill_score": 38.9, "opportunity_score": 51.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 43.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2381, "model_under_probability": 0.7619, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4525, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4268, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5732, "edge_over": -0.2144, "edge_under": 0.1541, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1541, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.064, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.4, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9067.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.44, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "pitcher_id": 607625, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 370, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.88, "skill_score": 11.8, "opportunity_score": 62.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 28.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3646, "model_under_probability": 0.6354, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2128, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.1518, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1518, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.955, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.4, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.54, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.1, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "pitcher_id": 676974, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-01T11:58:01.607Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -128, "under_odds": 104, "expected_strikeouts": 4.87, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.87, "skill_score": 38.9, "opportunity_score": 51.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 43.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.363, "model_under_probability": 0.637, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5339, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4661, "edge_over": -0.1984, "edge_under": 0.1468, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1468, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.064, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.4, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9067.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.44, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "pitcher_id": 621111, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-01T11:57:16.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 129, "under_odds": -165, "expected_strikeouts": 3.29, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.1, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.29, "skill_score": 11.9, "opportunity_score": 22.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 82.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2464, "model_under_probability": 0.7536, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4367, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6226, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4123, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5877, "edge_over": -0.1903, "edge_under": 0.131, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.131, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.083, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.3, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15814.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.01, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 92.3, "wind_speed_mph": 12.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "pitcher_id": 621111, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-01T11:54:57.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -155, "under_odds": 115, "expected_strikeouts": 3.29, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.1, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.29, "skill_score": 11.9, "opportunity_score": 22.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 82.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4112, "model_under_probability": 0.5888, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5665, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4335, "edge_over": -0.1966, "edge_under": 0.1237, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1237, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.083, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.3, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15814.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.01, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 92.3, "wind_speed_mph": 12.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "pitcher_id": 701542, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-01T11:57:50.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -160, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 5.3, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.12, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.3, "skill_score": 17.1, "opportunity_score": 45.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 46.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4285, "model_under_probability": 0.5715, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5752, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4248, "edge_over": -0.1869, "edge_under": 0.117, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.117, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.045, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.4, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15754.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.75, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 91.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-01T11:58:01.607Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -134, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 5.19, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.01, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.19, "skill_score": 42.6, "opportunity_score": 63.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 22.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4119, "model_under_probability": 0.5881, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5726, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.546, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.454, "edge_over": -0.1607, "edge_under": 0.1119, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1119, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.9, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.43, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "pitcher_id": 607625, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-01T11:58:01.607Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 144, "under_odds": -178, "expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.88, "skill_score": 11.8, "opportunity_score": 62.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 28.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5175, "model_under_probability": 0.4825, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4098, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6403, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.3902, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.6098, "edge_over": 0.1077, "edge_under": -0.1578, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1077, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.955, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.4, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.54, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.1, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-01T11:57:20.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -138, "under_odds": 108, "expected_strikeouts": 5.19, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.01, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.19, "skill_score": 42.6, "opportunity_score": 63.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 22.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4119, "model_under_probability": 0.5881, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5798, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5467, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4533, "edge_over": -0.1679, "edge_under": 0.1073, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1073, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.9, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.43, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "pitcher_id": 607625, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -140, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.88, "skill_score": 11.8, "opportunity_score": 62.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 28.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6811, "model_under_probability": 0.3189, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5505, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4495, "edge_over": 0.0978, "edge_under": -0.1573, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0978, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.955, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.4, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.54, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.1, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "pitcher_id": 701542, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-01T11:57:04.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -141, "under_odds": 111, "expected_strikeouts": 5.3, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.12, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.3, "skill_score": 17.1, "opportunity_score": 45.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 46.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4285, "model_under_probability": 0.5715, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5851, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4739, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5525, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4475, "edge_over": -0.1566, "edge_under": 0.0976, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0976, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.045, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.4, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15754.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.75, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 91.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "pitcher_id": 701542, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-01T11:58:01.607Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -128, "under_odds": 104, "expected_strikeouts": 5.3, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.12, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.3, "skill_score": 17.1, "opportunity_score": 45.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 46.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4285, "model_under_probability": 0.5715, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5339, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4661, "edge_over": -0.1329, "edge_under": 0.0813, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0813, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.045, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.4, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15754.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.75, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 91.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "pitcher_id": 700241, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-01T11:56:41.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 118, "under_odds": -154, "expected_strikeouts": 2.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 2.83, "skill_score": 11.5, "opportunity_score": 42.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 50.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3172, "model_under_probability": 0.6828, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4307, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5693, "edge_over": -0.1415, "edge_under": 0.0765, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0765, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.096, "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.4, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.64, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "pitcher_id": 700241, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-01T11:55:52.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 120, "under_odds": -160, "expected_strikeouts": 2.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 2.83, "skill_score": 11.5, "opportunity_score": 42.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 50.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3172, "model_under_probability": 0.6828, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4248, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5752, "edge_over": -0.1373, "edge_under": 0.0674, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0674, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.096, "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.4, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.64, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "pitcher_id": 607625, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-01T11:57:46.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -160, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.88, "skill_score": 11.8, "opportunity_score": 62.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 28.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6811, "model_under_probability": 0.3189, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5752, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4248, "edge_over": 0.0657, "edge_under": -0.1356, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0657, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.955, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.4, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.54, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.1, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "pitcher_id": 669022, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-01T11:58:01.607Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -166, "under_odds": 124, "expected_strikeouts": 5.71, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.77, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.71, "skill_score": 26.5, "opportunity_score": 41.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 60.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4887, "model_under_probability": 0.5113, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6241, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.583, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.417, "edge_over": -0.1354, "edge_under": 0.0649, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0649, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.1, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 93.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "pitcher_id": 642547, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-01T11:57:57.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 5.51, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.51, "skill_score": 21.4, "opportunity_score": 64.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 27.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.61, "model_under_probability": 0.39, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5101, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4899, "edge_over": 0.0645, "edge_under": -0.1338, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0645, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.995, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.9, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.28, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.6, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-01T11:57:33.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 5.19, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.01, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.19, "skill_score": 42.6, "opportunity_score": 63.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 22.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4119, "model_under_probability": 0.5881, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5101, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4899, "edge_over": -0.1336, "edge_under": 0.0643, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0643, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.9, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.43, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "pitcher_id": 607536, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-01T11:57:36.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 115, "under_odds": -146, "expected_strikeouts": 3.88, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.88, "skill_score": 23.2, "opportunity_score": 42.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 60.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3493, "model_under_probability": 0.6507, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5935, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4394, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5606, "edge_over": -0.1158, "edge_under": 0.0572, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0572, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.959, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.3, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26728.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "pitcher_id": 669022, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-01T11:57:29.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -153, "under_odds": 119, "expected_strikeouts": 5.71, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.77, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.71, "skill_score": 26.5, "opportunity_score": 41.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 60.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4887, "model_under_probability": 0.5113, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6047, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4566, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5698, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4302, "edge_over": -0.116, "edge_under": 0.0547, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0547, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.1, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 93.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "pitcher_id": 700241, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-01T11:58:01.607Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 128, "under_odds": -172, "expected_strikeouts": 2.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 2.83, "skill_score": 11.5, "opportunity_score": 42.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 50.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3172, "model_under_probability": 0.6828, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4386, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6324, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4095, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5905, "edge_over": -0.1214, "edge_under": 0.0504, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0504, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.096, "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.4, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.64, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "pitcher_id": 700241, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 126, "under_odds": -172, "expected_strikeouts": 2.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 2.83, "skill_score": 11.5, "opportunity_score": 42.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 50.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3172, "model_under_probability": 0.6828, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4425, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6324, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4117, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5883, "edge_over": -0.1253, "edge_under": 0.0504, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0504, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.096, "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.4, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.64, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "pitcher_id": 607536, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-01T11:58:01.607Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -164, "under_odds": 134, "expected_strikeouts": 3.88, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.88, "skill_score": 23.2, "opportunity_score": 42.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 60.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5238, "model_under_probability": 0.4762, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6212, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4274, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5924, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4076, "edge_over": -0.0974, "edge_under": 0.0488, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0488, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.959, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.3, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26728.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "pitcher_id": 669022, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-01T11:57:40.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 5.71, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.77, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.71, "skill_score": 26.5, "opportunity_score": 41.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 60.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3524, "model_under_probability": 0.6476, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4425, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5575, "edge_over": -0.1238, "edge_under": 0.0476, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0476, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.1, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 93.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "pitcher_id": 642547, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-01T11:58:01.607Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -132, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 5.51, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.51, "skill_score": 21.4, "opportunity_score": 64.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 27.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.61, "model_under_probability": 0.39, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5323, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4677, "edge_over": 0.041, "edge_under": -0.11, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.041, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.995, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.9, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.28, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.6, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "pitcher_id": 642547, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-01T11:57:40.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -135, "under_odds": 106, "expected_strikeouts": 5.51, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.51, "skill_score": 21.4, "opportunity_score": 64.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 27.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.61, "model_under_probability": 0.39, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.542, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.458, "edge_over": 0.0355, "edge_under": -0.0954, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0355, "play_tier": 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"Seth Lugo", "pitcher_id": 607625, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-01T11:57:08.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 101, "under_odds": -129, "expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.88, "skill_score": 11.8, "opportunity_score": 62.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 28.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": 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"SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5081, "model_under_probability": 0.4919, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4975, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5633, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.469, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.531, "edge_over": 0.0106, "edge_under": -0.0714, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0106, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.067, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.6, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8470.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 63.9, "wind_speed_mph": 8.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "pitcher_id": 671096, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-01T11:57:28.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 127, "under_odds": -163, "expected_strikeouts": 4.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.63, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.0, "skill_score": 20.7, "opportunity_score": 48.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 45.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3704, "model_under_probability": 0.6296, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4405, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6198, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4154, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5846, "edge_over": -0.0701, "edge_under": 0.0098, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0098, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.7, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28405.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.73, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.2, "wind_speed_mph": 8.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "pitcher_id": 668678, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-01T11:57:19.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -146, "under_odds": 114, "expected_strikeouts": 4.34, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.23, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "skill_score": 16.5, "opportunity_score": 47.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 55.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6019, "model_under_probability": 0.3981, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5935, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5595, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4405, "edge_over": 0.0084, "edge_under": -0.0692, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0084, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.026, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.6, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35438.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "pitcher_id": 671096, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-01T11:58:01.607Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 136, "under_odds": -168, "expected_strikeouts": 4.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.63, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.0, "skill_score": 20.7, "opportunity_score": 48.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 45.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3704, "model_under_probability": 0.6296, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4237, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6269, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4033, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5967, "edge_over": -0.0533, "edge_under": 0.0027, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0027, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.7, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28405.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.73, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.2, "wind_speed_mph": 8.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "pitcher_id": 668678, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-01T11:57:42.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 4.34, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.23, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "skill_score": 16.5, "opportunity_score": 47.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 55.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6019, "model_under_probability": 0.3981, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5575, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4425, "edge_over": 0.0019, "edge_under": -0.0781, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0019, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.026, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.6, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35438.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "pitcher_id": 554430, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-01T11:57:38.000Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 115, "under_odds": -147, "expected_strikeouts": 7.11, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.77, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 7.11, "skill_score": 34.3, "opportunity_score": 64.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 20.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4133, "model_under_probability": 0.5867, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5951, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4387, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5613, "edge_over": -0.0518, "edge_under": -0.0084, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0084, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.05, "aggregate_matchup_score": 87.1, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33971.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.15, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "pitcher_id": 554430, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 220, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 7.11, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.77, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 7.11, "skill_score": 34.3, "opportunity_score": 64.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 20.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3035, "model_under_probability": 0.6965, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3125, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.009, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.009, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.05, "aggregate_matchup_score": 87.1, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33971.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.15, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "pitcher_id": 676282, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-01T11:57:40.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -135, "expected_strikeouts": 5.34, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.34, "skill_score": 36.9, "opportunity_score": 24.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 74.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4345, "model_under_probability": 0.5655, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4653, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5347, "edge_over": -0.0655, "edge_under": -0.009, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.009, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.008, "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.3, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.39, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 93.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "pitcher_id": 607536, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-01T11:57:53.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -140, "under_odds": 105, "expected_strikeouts": 3.88, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.88, "skill_score": 23.2, "opportunity_score": 42.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 60.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5238, "model_under_probability": 0.4762, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5446, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4554, "edge_over": -0.0595, "edge_under": -0.0116, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0116, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.959, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.3, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26728.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea", "pitcher_id": 607067, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-01T11:58:01.607Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -144, "under_odds": 118, "expected_strikeouts": 4.05, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "skill_score": 9.5, "opportunity_score": 43.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 46.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5538, "model_under_probability": 0.4462, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5627, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4373, "edge_over": -0.0364, "edge_under": -0.0125, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0125, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.967, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.9, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26562.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.94, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 92.3, "wind_speed_mph": 12.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "pitcher_id": 554430, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-01T11:57:24.000Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 115, "under_odds": -155, "expected_strikeouts": 7.11, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.77, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 7.11, "skill_score": 34.3, "opportunity_score": 64.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 20.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4133, "model_under_probability": 0.5867, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4335, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5665, "edge_over": -0.0518, "edge_under": -0.0211, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0211, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.05, "aggregate_matchup_score": 87.1, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33971.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.15, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea", "pitcher_id": 607067, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-01T11:57:16.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -144, "under_odds": 113, "expected_strikeouts": 4.05, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "skill_score": 9.5, "opportunity_score": 43.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 46.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5538, "model_under_probability": 0.4462, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4695, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.557, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.443, "edge_over": -0.0364, "edge_under": -0.0233, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0233, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.967, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.9, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26562.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.94, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 92.3, "wind_speed_mph": 12.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea", "pitcher_id": 607067, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-01T11:54:57.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -140, "under_odds": 105, "expected_strikeouts": 4.05, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "skill_score": 9.5, "opportunity_score": 43.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 46.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5538, "model_under_probability": 0.4462, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5446, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4554, "edge_over": -0.0295, "edge_under": -0.0416, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0295, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.967, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.9, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26562.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.94, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 92.3, "wind_speed_mph": 12.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "pitcher_id": 700241, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 680, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 2.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 2.83, "skill_score": 11.5, "opportunity_score": 42.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 50.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.0832, "model_under_probability": 0.9168, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1282, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.045, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.045, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.096, "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.4, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.64, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "pitcher_id": 554430, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 112, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 7.11, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.77, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 7.11, "skill_score": 34.3, "opportunity_score": 64.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 20.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4133, "model_under_probability": 0.5867, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4717, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0584, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0584, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.05, "aggregate_matchup_score": 87.1, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33971.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.15, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "pitcher_id": 700241, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 300, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 2.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 2.83, "skill_score": 11.5, "opportunity_score": 42.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 50.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.171, "model_under_probability": 0.829, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.25, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.079, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.079, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.096, "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.4, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.64, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 250, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.33, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.82, "skill_score": 40.7, "opportunity_score": 52.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 53.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1652, "model_under_probability": 0.8348, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2857, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1205, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1205, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.49, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.092, "aggregate_matchup_score": 76.9, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.38, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "pitcher_id": 554430, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1200, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 7.11, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.77, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 7.11, "skill_score": 34.3, "opportunity_score": 64.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 20.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.7851, "model_under_probability": 0.2149, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9231, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.138, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.138, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.05, "aggregate_matchup_score": 87.1, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33971.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.15, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "pitcher_id": 554430, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -420, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 7.11, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.77, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 7.11, "skill_score": 34.3, "opportunity_score": 64.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 20.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.6659, "model_under_probability": 0.3341, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8077, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1418, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1418, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.05, "aggregate_matchup_score": 87.1, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33971.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.15, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "pitcher_id": 700241, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -215, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 2.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 2.83, "skill_score": 11.5, "opportunity_score": 42.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 50.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5219, "model_under_probability": 0.4781, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6825, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1606, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1606, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.096, "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.4, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.64, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 130, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.33, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.82, "skill_score": 40.7, "opportunity_score": 52.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 53.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.253, "model_under_probability": 0.747, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1818, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1818, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.49, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.092, "aggregate_matchup_score": 76.9, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.38, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -4500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.33, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.82, "skill_score": 40.7, "opportunity_score": 52.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 53.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7878, "model_under_probability": 0.2122, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9783, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1905, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1905, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.49, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.092, "aggregate_matchup_score": 76.9, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.38, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1100, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.33, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.82, "skill_score": 40.7, "opportunity_score": 52.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 53.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6507, "model_under_probability": 0.3493, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9167, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.266, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.266, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.49, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.092, "aggregate_matchup_score": 76.9, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.38, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -360, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.33, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.82, "skill_score": 40.7, "opportunity_score": 52.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 53.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5043, "model_under_probability": 0.4957, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7826, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2783, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2783, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.49, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.092, "aggregate_matchup_score": 76.9, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.38, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [ { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Alvarez", "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Alvarez", "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Alvarez", "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes 10+ Strikeouts", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 9.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Reynaldo Lopez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Reynaldo Lopez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Reynaldo Lopez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Reynaldo Lopez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Reynaldo L\u00f3pez", "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Reynaldo L\u00f3pez", "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Reynaldo L\u00f3pez", "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Drohan", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Drohan", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Drohan", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane McClanahan", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane McClanahan", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane McClanahan", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane McClanahan", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane McClanahan", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane McClanahan", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane McClanahan", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane McClanahan", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tatsuya Imai", "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tatsuya Imai", "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tatsuya Imai", "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor McDonald", "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "ARI", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor McDonald", "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "ARI", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Troy Melton", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Troy Melton", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Troy Melton", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler 10+ Strikeouts", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 9.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." } ] }