Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-04-28 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-04-28

45 matched props 23 unmatched

Newer: 2026-04-30 Older: 2026-04-27

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 45

Grouped Pitchers 18

Books 2

Unmatched Inputs 23

Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay

2026-06-02 2026-06-01 2026-05-31 2026-05-30 2026-05-29 2026-05-28 2026-05-26 2026-05-25

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-04-28 | Raw sportsbook rows: 45 | Grouped pitcher entries: 18 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-04-28/strikeout_edges_2026-04-28.json

Jacob deGrom

TEX vs NYY | 2 books

Strong

Adj K 5.86

Strongest Gap Under +17.03%

Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

6.5

O -152 / U +119

Over gap -23.01% / Under gap +17.03%

Under +17.03%

FanDuel

7.5

O +120 / U -160

Over gap -19.66% / Under gap +12.67%

Under +12.67%

Model O 37.3% | U 62.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 64.2

Jesús Luzardo

PHI vs SF | 2 books

Strong

Adj K 6.24

Strongest Gap Under +12.05%

Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

6.5

O -154 / U +120

Over gap -18.13% / Under gap +12.05%

Under +12.05%

FanDuel

6.5

O -138 / U +104

Over gap -15.48% / Under gap +8.48%

Under +8.48%

Model O 42.5% | U 57.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 67.7

Kris Bubic

KC vs ATH | 2 books

Strong

Adj K 5.24

Strongest Gap Under +9.03%

Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

5.5

O -133 / U +104

Over gap -15.13% / Under gap +9.03%

Under +9.03%

FanDuel

5.5

O -120 / U -110

Over gap -12.60% / Under gap +5.67%

Under +5.67%

Model O 41.9% | U 58.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 65.9

Tyler Mahle

SF vs PHI | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.13

Strongest Gap Under +8.78%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O -122 / U -108

Over gap -15.65% / Under gap +8.78%

Under +8.78%

FanDuel

4.5

O -122 / U -108

Over gap -15.65% / Under gap +8.78%

Under +8.78%

DraftKings

4.5

O -111 / U -114

Over gap -13.31% / Under gap +7.43%

Under +7.43%

Model O 39.3% | U 60.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 43.3

Davis Martin

CWS vs LAA | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.56

Strongest Gap Under +8.76%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O -160 / U +124

Over gap -14.94% / Under gap +8.76%

Under +8.76%

FanDuel

5.5

O +130 / U -174

Over gap -11.96% / Under gap +4.98%

Under +4.98%

FanDuel

5.5

O +130 / U -174

Over gap -11.96% / Under gap +4.98%

Under +4.98%

Model O 46.6% | U 53.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 38.6

José Soriano

LAA vs CWS | 2 books

Strong

Adj K 5.49

Strongest Gap Under +6.94%

Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

5.5

O -142 / U +111

Over gap -13.01% / Under gap +6.94%

Under +6.94%

FanDuel

5.5

O -144 / U +108

Over gap -13.35% / Under gap +6.25%

Under +6.25%

Model O 45.7% | U 54.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.2

Cam Schlittler

NYY vs TEX | 2 books

Strong

Adj K 5.74

Strongest Gap Under +5.86%

Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

5.5

O -157 / U +123

Over gap -11.79% / Under gap +5.86%

Under +5.86%

FanDuel

6.5

O +108 / U -144

Over gap -12.42% / Under gap +5.32%

Under +5.32%

Model O 49.3% | U 50.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 67.9

Casey Mize

DET vs ATL | 3 books

Play

Adj K 4.59

Strongest Gap Under +4.83%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O -144 / U +108

Over gap -11.93% / Under gap +4.83%

Under +4.83%

FanDuel

4.5

O -144 / U +108

Over gap -11.93% / Under gap +4.83%

Under +4.83%

DraftKings

4.5

O -132 / U +103

Over gap -9.81% / Under gap +3.65%

Under +3.65%

Model O 47.1% | U 52.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 30.4

Janson Junk

MIA vs LAD | 2 books

Play

Adj K 3.18

Strongest Gap Under +4.77%

Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

3.5

O +101 / U -129

Over gap -10.85% / Under gap +4.77%

Under +4.77%

FanDuel

3.5

O +106 / U -140

Over gap -9.64% / Under gap +2.77%

Under +2.77%

Model O 38.9% | U 61.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 18.6

Nick Martinez

TB vs CLE | 3 books

Play

Adj K 3.65

Strongest Gap Under +3.78%

Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

3.5

O -138 / U +108

Over gap -9.84% / Under gap +3.78%

Under +3.78%

FanDuel

3.5

O -138 / U +104

Over gap -9.84% / Under gap +2.84%

Under +2.84%

FanDuel

3.5

O -138 / U +104

Over gap -9.84% / Under gap +2.84%

Under +2.84%

Model O 48.1% | U 51.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 44.0

Tanner Bibee

CLE vs TB | 3 books

Lean

Adj K 4.97

Strongest Gap Over +2.65%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O -102 / U -125

Over gap +2.65% / Under gap -8.71%

Over +2.65%

FanDuel

4.5

O -108 / U -122

Over gap +1.23% / Under gap -8.10%

No Play

FanDuel

4.5

O -108 / U -122

Over gap +1.23% / Under gap -8.10%

No Play

Model O 53.1% | U 46.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 57.6

Joe Ryan

MIN vs SEA | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 6.11

Strongest Gap No Play +0.12%

Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

5.5

O -156 / U +120

Over gap -6.51% / Under gap +0.12%

No Play

FanDuel

5.5

O -144 / U +108

Over gap -4.59% / Under gap -2.51%

No Play

FanDuel

5.5

O -144 / U +108

Over gap -4.59% / Under gap -2.51%

No Play

Model O 54.4% | U 45.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 64.5

Shane Baz

BAL vs HOU | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 4.91

Strongest Gap No Play -0.30%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O -144 / U +108

Over gap -6.80% / Under gap -0.30%

No Play

FanDuel

4.5

O -144 / U +108

Over gap -6.80% / Under gap -0.30%

No Play

DraftKings

4.5

O -129 / U +101

Over gap -4.11% / Under gap -1.97%

No Play

Model O 52.2% | U 47.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 48.3

Clay Holmes

NYM vs WSH | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 4.11

Strongest Gap No Play -1.04%

Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

3.5

O -166 / U +124

Over gap -6.01% / Under gap -1.04%

No Play

FanDuel

3.5

O -166 / U +124

Over gap -6.01% / Under gap -1.04%

No Play

DraftKings

3.5

O -152 / U +119

Over gap -3.92% / Under gap -2.06%

No Play

Model O 56.4% | U 43.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 31.1

Logan Gilbert

SEA vs MIN | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 6.27

Strongest Gap No Play -1.09%

Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

5.5

O -136 / U +102

Over gap -1.09% / Under gap -6.04%

No Play

FanDuel

5.5

O -136 / U +102

Over gap -1.09% / Under gap -6.04%

No Play

DraftKings

5.5

O -143 / U +111

Over gap -2.31% / Under gap -3.93%

No Play

Model O 56.5% | U 43.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 70.5

Chad Patrick

MIL vs AZ | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 4.30

Strongest Gap No Play -1.83%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O +127 / U -162

Over gap -1.83% / Under gap -4.05%

No Play

FanDuel

4.5

O +118 / U -158

Over gap -3.65% / Under gap -3.46%

No Play

FanDuel

4.5

O +118 / U -158

Over gap -3.65% / Under gap -3.46%

No Play

Model O 42.2% | U 57.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 45.0

Zack Littell

WSH vs NYM | 1 books

No Play

Adj K 3.93

Strongest Gap No Play -2.28%

Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

3.5

O -125 / U -106

Over gap -2.28% / Under gap -4.74%

No Play

Model O 53.3% | U 46.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 32.4

Edward Cabrera

CHC vs SD | 2 books

No Play

Adj K 4.83

Strongest Gap No Play -2.30%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O -114 / U -114

Over gap -2.30% / Under gap -4.24%

No Play

DraftKings

4.5

O -119 / U -106

Over gap -3.37% / Under gap -2.43%

No Play

Model O 51.0% | U 49.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 45.3

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.