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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-04-30 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-04-30
28 matched props 3 unmatched
Newer: 2026-05-04 Older: 2026-04-28

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 28
Grouped Pitchers 13
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 3
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-06-02 2026-06-01 2026-05-31 2026-05-30 2026-05-29 2026-05-28 2026-05-26 2026-05-25

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-04-30 | Raw sportsbook rows: 28 | Grouped pitcher entries: 13 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-04-30/strikeout_edges_2026-04-30.json
Michael Soroka headshot

Michael Soroka
AZ vs MIL | 2 books
Strong
Adj K 4.26
Strongest Gap Under +20.23%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -118 / U -112
Over gap -27.19% / Under gap +20.23%
Under +20.23%
FanDuel
5.5
O -118 / U -112
Over gap -27.19% / Under gap +20.23%
Under +20.23%
Model O 26.9% | U 73.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 33.9
Noah Cameron headshot

Noah Cameron
KC vs ATH | 2 books
Strong
Adj K 4.43
Strongest Gap Under +8.40%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -148 / U +112
Over gap -15.25% / Under gap +8.40%
Under +8.40%
FanDuel
4.5
O -148 / U +112
Over gap -15.25% / Under gap +8.40%
Under +8.40%
Model O 44.4% | U 55.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 45.9
Paul Skenes headshot

Paul Skenes
PIT vs STL | 2 books
Strong
Adj K 6.16
Strongest Gap Under +8.08%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O -130 / U -102
Over gap -15.10% / Under gap +8.08%
Under +8.08%
FanDuel
6.5
O -130 / U -102
Over gap -15.10% / Under gap +8.08%
Under +8.08%
Model O 41.4% | U 58.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 80.6
Cristopher Sánchez headshot

Cristopher Sánchez
PHI vs SF | 3 books
Play
Adj K 6.08
Strongest Gap Under +3.72%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O +100 / U -127
Over gap -9.67% / Under gap +3.72%
Under +3.72%
BetMGM
6.5
O -105 / U -130
Over gap -10.89% / Under gap +3.15%
Under +3.15%
FanDuel
6.5
O +108 / U -144
Over gap -7.75% / Under gap +0.65%
No Play
Model O 40.3% | U 59.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 65.0
Hunter Dobbins headshot

Hunter Dobbins
STL vs PIT | 2 books
Play
Adj K 3.36
Strongest Gap Under +3.36%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -112 / U -118
Over gap -10.32% / Under gap +3.36%
Under +3.36%
FanDuel
3.5
O -112 / U -118
Over gap -10.32% / Under gap +3.36%
Under +3.36%
Model O 42.5% | U 57.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 27.2
Kevin Gausman headshot

Kevin Gausman
TOR vs MIN | 2 books
Lean
Adj K 5.72
Strongest Gap Under +1.97%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -138 / U +104
Over gap -8.97% / Under gap +1.97%
Under +1.97%
FanDuel
5.5
O -138 / U +104
Over gap -8.97% / Under gap +1.97%
Under +1.97%
Model O 49.0% | U 51.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 58.3
Logan Webb headshot

Logan Webb
SF vs PHI | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 5.56
Strongest Gap No Play +1.25%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O +120 / U -154
Over gap +1.25% / Under gap -7.33%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O +120 / U -160
Over gap +1.25% / Under gap -8.24%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +104 / U -138
Over gap -2.32% / Under gap -4.68%
No Play
Model O 46.7% | U 53.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 56.5
Brandon Woodruff headshot

Brandon Woodruff
MIL vs AZ | 2 books
No Play
Adj K 5.77
Strongest Gap No Play +0.94%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -174 / U +130
Over gap +0.94% / Under gap -7.92%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -174 / U +130
Over gap +0.94% / Under gap -7.92%
No Play
Model O 64.4% | U 35.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 69.8
Bailey Ober headshot

Bailey Ober
MIN vs TOR | 2 books
No Play
Adj K 4.58
Strongest Gap No Play +0.20%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +114 / U -152
Over gap +0.20% / Under gap -7.25%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +114 / U -152
Over gap +0.20% / Under gap -7.25%
No Play
Model O 46.9% | U 53.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 48.1
Chris Bassitt headshot

Chris Bassitt
BAL vs HOU | 2 books
No Play
Adj K 4.19
Strongest Gap No Play -0.97%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +116 / U -154
Over gap -5.96% / Under gap -0.97%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +132 / U -178
Over gap -2.76% / Under gap -4.37%
No Play
Model O 40.3% | U 59.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 50.6
Jeffrey Springs headshot

Jeffrey Springs
ATH vs KC | 2 books
No Play
Adj K 4.35
Strongest Gap No Play -2.43%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +110 / U -146
Over gap -4.54% / Under gap -2.43%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +110 / U -146
Over gap -4.54% / Under gap -2.43%
No Play
Model O 43.1% | U 56.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 32.1
Framber Valdez headshot

Framber Valdez
DET vs ATL | 2 books
No Play
Adj K 5.10
Strongest Gap No Play -2.50%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -136 / U +102
Over gap -2.50% / Under gap -4.63%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -136 / U +102
Over gap -2.50% / Under gap -4.63%
No Play
Model O 55.1% | U 44.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 48.2
Bryce Elder headshot

Bryce Elder
ATL vs DET | 2 books
No Play
Adj K 5.11
Strongest Gap No Play -2.70%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -138 / U +104
Over gap -2.70% / Under gap -4.30%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -138 / U +104
Over gap -2.70% / Under gap -4.30%
No Play
Model O 55.3% | U 44.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 36.8

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.