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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-03-26 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-03-26
54 matched props 0 unmatched
Newer: 2026-03-27 Older: 2026-03-25

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 54
Grouped Pitchers 18
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 0
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-06-03 2026-06-02 2026-06-01 2026-05-31 2026-05-30 2026-05-29 2026-05-28 2026-05-26

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-03-26 | Raw sportsbook rows: 54 | Grouped pitcher entries: 18 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-03-26/strikeout_edges_2026-03-26.json
Drew Rasmussen headshot

Drew Rasmussen
TB vs STL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.72
Strongest Gap Under +8.70%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O +110 / U -145
Over gap -15.50% / Under gap +8.70%
Under +8.70%
DraftKings
4.5
O +119 / U -152
Over gap -13.54% / Under gap +7.56%
Under +7.56%
FanDuel
4.5
O +124 / U -166
Over gap -12.52% / Under gap +5.47%
Under +5.47%
Model O 32.1% | U 67.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 50.7
Joe Ryan headshot

Joe Ryan
MIN vs BAL | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.62
Strongest Gap Under +8.02%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +104 / U -138
Over gap -15.02% / Under gap +8.02%
Under +8.02%
BetMGM
6.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap -14.78% / Under gap +7.67%
Under +7.67%
DraftKings
6.5
O +125 / U -160
Over gap -10.44% / Under gap +4.46%
Under +4.46%
Model O 34.0% | U 66.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 56.6
Trevor Rogers headshot

Trevor Rogers
BAL vs MIN | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 4.68
Strongest Gap Under +7.39%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -163 / U +127
Over gap -13.42% / Under gap +7.39%
Under +7.39%
BetMGM
4.5
O -160 / U +125
Over gap -12.98% / Under gap +7.00%
Under +7.00%
FanDuel
4.5
O -138 / U +104
Over gap -9.42% / Under gap +2.42%
Under +2.42%
Model O 48.6% | U 51.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 37.4
Hunter Brown headshot

Hunter Brown
HOU vs LAA | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 6.72
Strongest Gap Under +7.29%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O -172 / U +128
Over gap -14.39% / Under gap +7.29%
Under +7.29%
DraftKings
7.5
O +106 / U -135
Over gap -12.07% / Under gap +6.08%
Under +6.08%
BetMGM
6.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -11.93% / Under gap +4.64%
Under +4.64%
Model O 48.9% | U 51.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 78.4
Cade Cavalli headshot

Cade Cavalli
WSH vs CHC | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.76
Strongest Gap Under +6.33%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -166 / U +130
Over gap -12.22% / Under gap +6.33%
Under +6.33%
FanDuel
3.5
O -148 / U +112
Over gap -9.49% / Under gap +2.64%
Under +2.64%
BetMGM
4.5
O +150 / U -200
Over gap -7.17% / Under gap +0.50%
No Play
Model O 50.2% | U 49.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 27.2
Cristopher Sánchez headshot

Cristopher Sánchez
PHI vs TEX | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.74
Strongest Gap Under +6.06%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -158 / U +124
Over gap -11.94% / Under gap +6.06%
Under +6.06%
BetMGM
5.5
O -150 / U +115
Over gap -10.70% / Under gap +4.19%
Under +4.19%
FanDuel
5.5
O -148 / U +112
Over gap -10.38% / Under gap +3.53%
Under +3.53%
Model O 49.3% | U 50.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 53.3
Jacob Misiorowski headshot

Jacob Misiorowski
MIL vs CWS | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.78
Strongest Gap Under +5.49%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -158 / U +124
Over gap -11.37% / Under gap +5.49%
Under +5.49%
BetMGM
6.5
O +110 / U -145
Over gap -11.41% / Under gap +4.61%
Under +4.61%
FanDuel
5.5
O -152 / U +114
Over gap -10.45% / Under gap +3.40%
Under +3.40%
Model O 49.9% | U 50.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 68.9
Freddy Peralta headshot

Freddy Peralta
NYM vs PIT | 3 books
Play
Adj K 5.90
Strongest Gap Under +4.97%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -174 / U +130
Over gap -11.95% / Under gap +4.97%
Under +4.97%
DraftKings
6.5
O +116 / U -148
Over gap -8.44% / Under gap +2.46%
Under +2.46%
BetMGM
6.5
O +115 / U -150
Over gap -8.65% / Under gap +2.14%
Under +2.14%
Model O 51.5% | U 48.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 65.7
Matthew Boyd headshot

Matthew Boyd
CHC vs WSH | 3 books
Play
Adj K 4.77
Strongest Gap Under +4.74%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -154 / U +121
Over gap -10.62% / Under gap +4.74%
Under +4.74%
BetMGM
4.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap -11.53% / Under gap +4.54%
Under +4.54%
FanDuel
4.5
O -154 / U +116
Over gap -10.62% / Under gap +3.69%
Under +3.69%
Model O 50.0% | U 50.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 47.6
Paul Skenes headshot

Paul Skenes
PIT vs NYM | 3 books
Play
Adj K 6.20
Strongest Gap Under +3.91%
Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
6.5
O -110 / U -118
Over gap -10.42% / Under gap +3.91%
Under +3.91%
DraftKings
6.5
O +102 / U -131
Over gap -7.54% / Under gap +1.33%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +102 / U -136
Over gap -7.54% / Under gap +0.41%
No Play
Model O 42.0% | U 58.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 69.1
Garrett Crochet headshot

Garrett Crochet
BOS vs CIN | 3 books
Play
Adj K 7.37
Strongest Gap Under +3.79%
Best Line 7.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
7.5
O -119 / U -107
Over gap -9.82% / Under gap +3.79%
Under +3.79%
BetMGM
7.5
O -110 / U -118
Over gap -7.86% / Under gap +1.35%
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O -110 / U -120
Over gap -7.86% / Under gap +0.93%
No Play
Model O 44.5% | U 55.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 76.5
Tarik Skubal headshot

Tarik Skubal
DET vs SD | 3 books
Play
Adj K 6.88
Strongest Gap Under +3.55%
Best Line 7.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
7.5
O +108 / U -138
Over gap -9.61% / Under gap +3.55%
Under +3.55%
BetMGM
7.5
O +110 / U -140
Over gap -9.15% / Under gap +3.20%
Under +3.20%
FanDuel
7.5
O +128 / U -172
Over gap -5.39% / Under gap -1.71%
No Play
Model O 38.5% | U 61.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 81.9
Nick Pivetta headshot

Nick Pivetta
SD vs DET | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 5.91
Strongest Gap Under +2.01%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O -148 / U +116
Over gap -7.99% / Under gap +2.01%
Under +2.01%
BetMGM
5.5
O -150 / U +115
Over gap -8.31% / Under gap +1.80%
Under +1.80%
FanDuel
5.5
O -152 / U +114
Over gap -8.63% / Under gap +1.58%
Under +1.58%
Model O 51.7% | U 48.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 69.9
Nathan Eovaldi headshot

Nathan Eovaldi
TEX vs PHI | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 5.59
Strongest Gap No Play +1.48%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O +119 / U -152
Over gap +1.48% / Under gap -7.46%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O +115 / U -150
Over gap +0.63% / Under gap -7.14%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +112 / U -148
Over gap -0.03% / Under gap -6.82%
No Play
Model O 47.1% | U 52.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 58.6
Shane Smith headshot

Shane Smith
CWS vs MIL | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 4.99
Strongest Gap No Play +0.19%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -114 / U -114
Over gap +0.19% / Under gap -6.73%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -117 / U -109
Over gap -0.46% / Under gap -5.61%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -125 / U -105
Over gap -2.10% / Under gap -4.68%
No Play
Model O 53.5% | U 46.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 59.1
Matthew Liberatore headshot

Matthew Liberatore
STL vs TB | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 4.23
Strongest Gap No Play +0.08%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -140 / U +106
Over gap +0.08% / Under gap -6.95%
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O -151 / U +118
Over gap -1.75% / Under gap -4.28%
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O -155 / U +120
Over gap -2.37% / Under gap -3.86%
No Play
Model O 58.4% | U 41.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 41.1
Andrew Abbott headshot

Andrew Abbott
CIN vs BOS | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 5.10
Strongest Gap No Play -0.58%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap -6.41% / Under gap -0.58%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -150 / U +115
Over gap -4.87% / Under gap -1.64%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -134 / U +105
Over gap -2.13% / Under gap -3.91%
No Play
Model O 55.1% | U 44.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.9
José Soriano headshot

José Soriano
LAA vs HOU | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 4.36
Strongest Gap No Play -1.93%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O +111 / U -142
Over gap -4.14% / Under gap -1.93%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O +120 / U -160
Over gap -2.20% / Under gap -4.79%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +108 / U -144
Over gap -4.83% / Under gap -2.27%
No Play
Model O 43.2% | U 56.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 38.7

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.