{ "date": "2026-03-26", "generated_at": "2026-03-26T19:06:53.531750", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "projection_date": "2026-03-26", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 54, "matched_count": 54, "unmatched_count": 0 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "edge_count": 54, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T02:04:57.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -145, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.35, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.72, "model_over_probability": 0.3212, "model_under_probability": 0.6788, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5918, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4459, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5541, "edge_over": -0.155, "edge_under": 0.087, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.087, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.121, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 380.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.82, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.8, "wind_speed_mph": 11.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "pitcher_id": 657746, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T02:05:30.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 104, "under_odds": -138, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.62, "model_over_probability": 0.34, "model_under_probability": 0.66, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5798, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4581, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5419, "edge_over": -0.1502, "edge_under": 0.0802, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0802, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.082, "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 819.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.39, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 77.5, "wind_speed_mph": 14.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "pitcher_id": 657746, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T02:05:37.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 105, "under_odds": -140, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.62, "model_over_probability": 0.34, "model_under_probability": 0.66, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4554, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5446, "edge_over": -0.1478, "edge_under": 0.0767, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0767, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.082, "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 819.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.39, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 77.5, "wind_speed_mph": 14.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T02:05:30.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 119, "under_odds": -152, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.35, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.72, "model_over_probability": 0.3212, "model_under_probability": 0.6788, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4566, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6032, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4308, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5692, "edge_over": -0.1354, "edge_under": 0.0756, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0756, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.121, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 380.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.82, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.8, "wind_speed_mph": 11.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "pitcher_id": 669432, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T02:05:23.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -163, "under_odds": 127, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.54, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "model_over_probability": 0.4856, "model_under_probability": 0.5144, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6198, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4405, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5846, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4154, "edge_over": -0.1342, "edge_under": 0.0739, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0739, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.042, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 475.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.22, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 77.5, "wind_speed_mph": 14.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "pitcher_id": 686613, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T02:05:44.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -172, "under_odds": 128, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.91, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.72, "model_over_probability": 0.4885, "model_under_probability": 0.5115, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6324, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4386, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5905, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4095, "edge_over": -0.1439, "edge_under": 0.0729, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0729, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.81, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.138, "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 465.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.81, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.0, "wind_speed_mph": 9.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "pitcher_id": 669432, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-03-25T23:03:07.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -160, "under_odds": 125, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.54, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "model_over_probability": 0.4856, "model_under_probability": 0.5144, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4444, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5807, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4193, "edge_over": -0.1298, "edge_under": 0.07, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.07, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.042, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 475.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.22, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 77.5, "wind_speed_mph": 14.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "pitcher_id": 676917, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T02:04:48.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -166, "under_odds": 130, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.49, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.76, "model_over_probability": 0.5019, "model_under_probability": 0.4981, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6241, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5894, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4106, "edge_over": -0.1222, "edge_under": 0.0633, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0633, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.066, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 0.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.35, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 41.2, "wind_speed_mph": 16.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "pitcher_id": 686613, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T02:05:46.000Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 106, "under_odds": -135, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.91, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.72, "model_over_probability": 0.3647, "model_under_probability": 0.6353, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.458, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.542, "edge_over": -0.1207, "edge_under": 0.0608, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0608, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.81, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.138, "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 465.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.81, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.0, "wind_speed_mph": 9.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "pitcher_id": 650911, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T02:05:32.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -158, "under_odds": 124, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.74, "model_over_probability": 0.493, "model_under_probability": 0.507, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5784, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4216, "edge_over": -0.1194, "edge_under": 0.0606, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0606, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.016, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 405.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.92, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 71.6, "wind_speed_mph": 13.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "pitcher_id": 694819, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T02:05:29.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -158, "under_odds": 124, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.78, "model_over_probability": 0.4987, "model_under_probability": 0.5013, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5784, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4216, "edge_over": -0.1137, "edge_under": 0.0549, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0549, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "aggregate_matchup_score": 68.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 0.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.78, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 38.3, "wind_speed_mph": 16.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T02:05:26.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 124, "under_odds": -166, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.35, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.72, "model_over_probability": 0.3212, "model_under_probability": 0.6788, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6241, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.417, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.583, "edge_over": -0.1252, "edge_under": 0.0547, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0547, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.121, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 380.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.82, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.8, "wind_speed_mph": 11.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "pitcher_id": 642547, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T02:05:25.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -174, "under_odds": 130, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.75, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.9, "model_over_probability": 0.5155, "model_under_probability": 0.4845, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.635, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5936, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4064, "edge_over": -0.1195, "edge_under": 0.0497, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0497, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 465.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.14, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 14.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "pitcher_id": 571510, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T02:04:48.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -154, "under_odds": 121, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.77, "model_over_probability": 0.5001, "model_under_probability": 0.4999, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4525, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5726, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4274, "edge_over": -0.1062, "edge_under": 0.0474, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0474, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 390.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.86, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 41.2, "wind_speed_mph": 16.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "pitcher_id": 686613, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-03-26T02:05:41.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -155, "under_odds": 115, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.91, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.72, "model_over_probability": 0.4885, "model_under_probability": 0.5115, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5665, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4335, "edge_over": -0.1193, "edge_under": 0.0464, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0464, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.81, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.138, "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 465.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.81, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.0, "wind_speed_mph": 9.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "pitcher_id": 694819, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", 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