Mithrandir Metrics
TOR American League East Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Club dossier / American League / American League East

Toronto Blue Jays

83.2-78.8 with P10-P90 wins 74-93. 81.4 avg opponent projected wins.

Projected W
83.2-78.8
Live pace
75.9
Delta
-7.3
Record 45-51 Run diff -35 Generated 2026-07-17T11:44:53.145921+00:00
Rolling projection

Preseason / pace / Bayesian update

Preseason83.0
Current pace75.9
Rolling p5078.7
Observed weight62%
Rolling wins
69.0 73.6 78.7 83.7 88.3
MOVE -4.3 wins PACE behind BULLPEN FIP 4.37
October path

Projection odds

Division9.2%
Playoffs46.1%
Pennant5.7%
World Series2.6%
Run environment

Team talent

wOBA0.271
Rotation FIP4.33
Bullpen FIP4.37
Run diff27.6
Depth chart

Projected lineup

SlotPlayerPAValue
CKirk, Alejandro5424.18
1BGuerrero Jr.., Vladimir66614.72
2BUrías, Luis384-0.84
SSGiménez, Andrés502-0.17
LFClase, Jonatan264-0.62
CFVarsho, Daulton437-0.51
RFBarger, Addison5141.59
DHSpringer, George6054.37