Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 1 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TOR · 2026

Rogers, Tyler

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
15.1% K%
Range
10.9% to 24.3%
Live Δ
yes
Team TOR Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 36 Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-01
ERA preseason3.91
ERA current pace2.52
ERA rolling p503.48
Observed weight31%
ERA
1.99 2.69 3.48 4.26 4.96
FIP
2.16 2.80 3.51 4.22 4.86
K%
10.4% 12.6% 15.2% 17.7% 19.9%
BB%
3.2% 4.5% 5.9% 7.4% 8.7%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-01
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%8.3%
59 -38 vs proj
Barrel allowed0.0%
100 +24 vs proj
Fastball velo83.0
1
Hard-hit allowed21.7%
100
K%14.7%
6
Whiff%14.2%
2
xwOBA allowed0.242
95 +41 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-01
Mithrandir Stuff+107
86
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

2Pitches 2026Season 79%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Rogers, Tyler · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 2026-05-17: 0.2412026-05-19: 0.2422026-05-21: 0.2422026-05-23: 0.2402026-05-24: 0.2402026-05-25: 0.2402026-05-26: 0.2492026-05-28: 0.2442026-05-29: 0.2442026-05-30: 0.2462026-05-31: 0.2462026-06-01: 0.242 2026-05-17 2026-06-01 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Rogers, Tyler · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 41%41%Zone: 53%53%Whiff: 14%14%Called strike: 19%19%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 22%22% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rogers, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 78.5%Slider: 21.5% MIX SI 79%SL 21% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Rogers, Tyler · 2026 arsenal snapshot SI: HB -0.0, IVB 4.4SISL: HB -0.4, IVB 3.1SL horizontal break IVB MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 77.5% 268 104 qualified
SL 22.5% 78 101 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
2
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
3
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 74%, Slider 26%.
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.65
K% Δ-0.004
Sample26.3 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings43.0----
Batters Faced174----
K%15.1%10.9% to 24.3%+/- 6.7%
BB%4.0%0.8% to 8.2%+/- 3.7%
Whiff%16.6%12.4% to 24.3%+/- 5.9%
HR/91.290.53 to 2.31+/- 0.89
xwOBA Against0.3100.252 to 0.382+/- 0.065
Barrel% Allowed5.6%0.8% to 9.1%+/- 4.2%
ERA4.171.37 to 5.31+/- 1.97
FIP3.762.25 to 5.83+/- 1.79
WHIP1.2330.872 to 1.551+/- 0.340
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

828 career BF

xwOBA0.256
K%14.9%
BB%3.1%
Barrel2.6%
vs RHH

1020 career BF

xwOBA0.248
K%17.4%
BB%2.7%
Barrel3.2%