Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Profile still plays best against righties (0.266 vs 0.225 xwOBA split).
Hitter projection / TOR · 2026
Smith, Josh
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team TOR
Archetype Ground-ball contact
Age 29
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
22
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.319 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.277 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.297 |
| Observed weight | 54% |
xwOBA
0.273
0.284
0.297
0.309
0.320
wOBA
0.274
0.291
0.311
0.330
0.348
ISO
0.104
0.117
0.132
0.147
0.161
K%
19.7%
21.0%
22.4%
23.9%
25.2%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.9%
34
Exit velocity84.4
15
Hard-hit%31.5%
21
xBA0.277
12
xSLG0.436
26
xwOBA0.277
24
-45 vs proj
BB%10.9%
78
+24 vs proj
Bat speed66.1
12
K%23.6%
47
-23 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.4 · 2B
87
Arm Strength83.7 · 2B
23
Outs Above Avg0.0 · 2B
47
Range Runs-1.6 · 2B
38
Baserunning · percentile strip
SB Success Rate80.0% · 2B
48
Sprint Speed27.9 · 2B
61
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.5% · rebadged research
56
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.8% · rebadged research
65
Correct Decisions66.7% · rebadged research
55
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.301 · borderline
26
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.297 · insufficient sample
15
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.258 · validated thin sample
91
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.339 · insufficient sample
20
Resists FastballwOBA 0.320 · validated
83
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.335 · validated
87
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
63
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
125 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.043 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.010 |
| Sample | 258 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 553 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 12 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.321 | 0.298 to 0.357 | +/- 0.029 |
| ISO | 0.127 | 0.108 to 0.218 | +/- 0.055 |
| Barrel% | 3.4% | 2.4% to 6.0% | +/- 1.8% |
| Hard-Hit% | 35.1% | 32.2% to 43.1% | +/- 5.5% |
| K% | 19.5% | 17.1% to 26.1% | +/- 4.5% |
| BB% | 8.8% | 7.1% to 11.6% | +/- 2.3% |
| BABIP | 0.286 | 0.271 to 0.338 | +/- 0.034 |
vs LHP
358 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.225 |
| K% | 21.4% |
| BB% | 6.2% |
| Barrel | 2.3% |
vs RHP
1365 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.266 |
| K% | 15.4% |
| BB% | 7.8% |
| Barrel | 3.6% |