Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jun 12 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / LAA · 2026

Soriano, José

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.7% K%
Range
18.1% to 29.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team LAA Archetype Volatile contact Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-06-12
52
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
59
Arsenal5 metrics
57
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-06-12
ERA preseason3.85
ERA current pace2.72
ERA rolling p503.18
Observed weight60%
ERA
2.12 2.62 3.18 3.74 4.24
FIP
3.28 3.56 3.87 4.17 4.45
K%
22.0% 23.3% 24.8% 26.3% 27.7%
BB%
9.3% 10.0% 10.9% 11.8% 12.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-06-12
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.27
53
ERA2.72
75
BB%12.2%
16 -25 vs proj
K%25.5%
71
xwOBA allowed0.321
45
Barrel allowed9.3%
30 -23 vs proj
Fastball velo97.1
89
Hard-hit allowed37.2%
64
Whiff%30.1%
90
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-06-12
Curveball Stuff+104
81
Fastball Stuff+102
49
Mithrandir Stuff+104
64
Sinker Stuff+104
61
Slider Stuff+98
31
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 26%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Soriano, José · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.321 2026-06-01: 0.3082026-06-02: 0.3182026-06-03: 0.3182026-06-04: 0.3182026-06-05: 0.3182026-06-06: 0.3182026-06-07: 0.3182026-06-08: 0.3212026-06-09: 0.3212026-06-10: 0.3212026-06-11: 0.3212026-06-12: 0.321 2026-06-01 2026-06-12 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Soriano, José · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 44%44%Whiff: 30%30%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 37%37% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Soriano, José · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 26.4%Knuckle Curve: 24.7%4-Seam Fastball: 24.1%Split-Finger: 19.1%Slider: 5.8% SI26% · 97 mphprimary pitch SI 26%KC 25%FF 24%FS 19%SL 6% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Soriano, José · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 26% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 27″ drop, 96.7 mphSI97 mphKnuckle Curve: 25% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 85.5 mphKC85 mph4-Seam Fastball: 24% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 97.6 mphFF98 mphSplit-Finger: 19% usage, 8″ horizontal break, 32″ drop, 92.5 mphFS92 mphSlider: 6% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 90.3 mphSL90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 32.1% 337 104 qualified
CB 32.0% 336 104 qualified
FB 28.9% 303 102 qualified
SL 7.0% 73 98 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 50%, Knuckle Curve 26%, Split-Finger 9%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-1.17
K% Δ+0.018
Sample83.3 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings142.9----
Batters Faced615----
K%23.7%18.1% to 29.1%+/- 5.5%
BB%9.4%7.0% to 12.0%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%26.6%22.1% to 32.0%+/- 5.0%
HR/91.110.43 to 1.64+/- 0.60
xwOBA Against0.3080.266 to 0.335+/- 0.035
Barrel% Allowed7.3%5.0% to 10.1%+/- 2.6%
ERA3.892.53 to 5.47+/- 1.47
FIP4.032.71 to 4.33+/- 0.81
WHIP1.2881.060 to 1.558+/- 0.249
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

779 career BF

xwOBA0.290
K%19.7%
BB%10.3%
Barrel6.2%
vs RHH

682 career BF

xwOBA0.288
K%22.4%
BB%8.7%
Barrel6.9%