Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TOR · 2026

Soriano, José

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
23.7% K%
Range
18.1% to 29.1%
Live Δ
yes
Team TOR Archetype Volatile contact Age 28 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
50
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
57
Arsenal5 metrics
56
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.85
ERA current pace3.56
ERA rolling p503.63
Observed weight76%
ERA
2.46 3.01 3.63 4.24 4.80
FIP
3.18 3.48 3.82 4.16 4.47
K%
21.0% 21.9% 23.0% 24.0% 25.0%
BB%
8.6% 9.2% 9.8% 10.4% 11.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.31
54
ERA3.56
67
BB%10.0%
37
K%22.7%
55
xwOBA allowed0.323
37 -20 vs proj
Barrel allowed7.6%
46
Fastball velo96.7
83
Hard-hit allowed37.6%
56
Whiff%26.2%
77
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Curveball Stuff+104
80
Fastball Stuff+105
69
Mithrandir Stuff+103
64
Sinker Stuff+102
50
Slider Stuff+97
19
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 30%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Soriano, José · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.323 2026-09-12: 0.3242026-09-13: 0.3242026-09-14: 0.3242026-09-18: 0.3222026-09-19: 0.3222026-09-20: 0.3222026-09-21: 0.3212026-09-22: 0.3212026-09-23: 0.3212026-09-24: 0.3212026-09-25: 0.3212026-09-26: 0.323 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Soriano, José · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 45%45%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 49%49%Hard hit allowed: 38%38% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Soriano, José · 2026 arsenal snapshot Sinker: 29.8%Knuckle Curve: 25.4%4-Seam Fastball: 21.2%Split-Finger: 18.6%Slider: 5.0% SI30% · 96 mphprimary pitch SI 30%KC 25%FF 21%FS 19%SL 5% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Soriano, José · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Sinker: 30% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 26″ drop, 96.3 mphSI96 mphKnuckle Curve: 25% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 85.3 mphKC85 mph4-Seam Fastball: 21% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 97.1 mphFF97 mphSplit-Finger: 19% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 92.3 mphFS92 mphSlider: 5% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 31″ drop, 90.2 mphSL90 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 36.1% 583 102 qualified
CB 32.2% 519 104 qualified
FB 24.6% 397 105 qualified
SL 7.1% 114 97 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 50%, Knuckle Curve 26%, Split-Finger 9%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.32
K% Δ-0.010
Sample176.7 IP

negative regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings142.1----
Batters Faced612----
K%23.7%18.1% to 29.1%+/- 5.5%
BB%9.4%7.0% to 12.0%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%26.6%22.1% to 32.0%+/- 5.0%
HR/91.110.43 to 1.65+/- 0.61
xwOBA Against0.3090.265 to 0.335+/- 0.035
Barrel% Allowed7.3%5.0% to 10.1%+/- 2.6%
ERA3.882.52 to 5.46+/- 1.47
FIP4.032.71 to 4.33+/- 0.81
WHIP1.2741.048 to 1.540+/- 0.246
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

779 career BF

xwOBA0.290
K%19.7%
BB%10.3%
Barrel6.2%
vs RHH

682 career BF

xwOBA0.288
K%22.4%
BB%8.7%
Barrel6.9%