Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TOR · 2026

Varland, Louis

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
24.5% K%
Range
18.9% to 30.6%
Live Δ
yes
Team TOR Archetype Balanced reliever Age 29 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
94
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
89
Arsenal6 metrics
73
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17
ERA preseason4.11
ERA current pace1.10
ERA rolling p502.74
Observed weight45%
ERA
1.45 2.06 2.74 3.42 4.04
FIP
2.04 2.50 3.01 3.51 3.97
K%
25.5% 27.3% 29.3% 31.3% 33.1%
BB%
5.2% 6.0% 6.9% 7.8% 8.6%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP0.96
93
ERA1.10
99
BB%6.5%
82
K%35.7%
98 +35 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.223
99 +40 vs proj
Barrel allowed3.5%
95 +64 vs proj
Fastball velo98.4
95
Hard-hit allowed36.0%
69
Whiff%25.8%
72
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-17
Fastball Stuff+107
86
Mithrandir Stuff+106
86
Changeup Stuff+111
97
Curveball Stuff+103
62
Sinker Stuff+93
8
Slider Stuff+113
99
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 41%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Varland, Louis · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.223 2026-07-06: 0.2202026-07-07: 0.2202026-07-08: 0.2202026-07-09: 0.2172026-07-10: 0.2172026-07-11: 0.2172026-07-12: 0.2232026-07-13: 0.2232026-07-14: 0.2232026-07-15: 0.2232026-07-16: 0.2232026-07-17: 0.223 2026-07-06 2026-07-17 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Varland, Louis · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 39%39%Zone: 46%46%Whiff: 26%26%Called strike: 16%16%First pitch strike: 57%57%Hard hit allowed: 36%36% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Varland, Louis · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 41.2%Knuckle Curve: 30.3%Changeup: 17.0%Slider: 8.8%Sinker: 2.7% FF41% · 99 mphprimary pitch FF 41%KC 30%CH 17%SL 9%SI 3% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Varland, Louis · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ 4-Seam Fastball: 41% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 12″ drop, 98.5 mphFF99 mphKnuckle Curve: 30% usage, 0″ horizontal break, 44″ drop, 87.3 mphKC87 mphChangeup: 17% usage, 10″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 92.9 mphCH93 mphSlider: 9% usage, 5″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 91.6 mphSL92 mphSinker: 3% usage, 17″ horizontal break, 19″ drop, 96.7 mphSI97 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 42.2% 241 107 qualified
CB 29.6% 169 103 limited sample
CH 15.6% 89 111 limited sample
SL 8.9% 51 113 limited sample
SI 3.7% 21 93 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 44%, Knuckle Curve 37%, Slider 7%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-2.92
K% Δ+0.112
Sample51.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings69.0----
Batters Faced299----
K%24.5%18.9% to 30.6%+/- 5.9%
BB%7.3%5.3% to 10.3%+/- 2.5%
Whiff%25.5%20.9% to 30.8%+/- 4.9%
HR/91.370.90 to 2.53+/- 0.82
xwOBA Against0.3050.269 to 0.358+/- 0.044
Barrel% Allowed9.0%5.9% to 13.7%+/- 3.9%
ERA4.022.52 to 6.17+/- 1.82
FIP3.933.08 to 5.79+/- 1.36
WHIP1.2451.044 to 1.659+/- 0.307
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

466 career BF

xwOBA0.327
K%21.0%
BB%6.5%
Barrel11.5%
vs RHH

588 career BF

xwOBA0.314
K%22.7%
BB%7.5%
Barrel10.1%