Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TOR · 2026

Little, Brendon

Late-inning arm with usable miss-bat shape

Primary
24.4% K%
Range
17.5% to 31.4%
Live Δ
yes
Team TOR Archetype Balanced reliever 2 Age 30 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
36
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
48
Arsenal5 metrics
12
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-09-26
ERA preseason3.33
ERA current pace6.83
ERA rolling p504.59
Observed weight36%
ERA
2.92 3.71 4.59 5.47 6.25
FIP
3.10 3.61 4.19 4.76 5.28
K%
24.0% 26.3% 28.8% 31.4% 33.7%
BB%
10.8% 12.3% 14.0% 15.8% 17.3%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-09-26
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP2.06
0
ERA6.83
4
BB%18.5%
0 -20 vs proj
K%34.1%
98 +31 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.286
79 +20 vs proj
Barrel allowed6.5%
67
Fastball velo95.1
61
Hard-hit allowed41.9%
25
Whiff%38.8%
100
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-09-26
Curveball Stuff+98
7
Fastball Stuff+98
23
Mithrandir Stuff+95
12
Sinker Stuff+95
12
Slider Stuff+92
4
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

5Pitches 2026Season 29%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Little, Brendon · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.313 0.286 2026-09-12: 0.2932026-09-13: 0.2932026-09-14: 0.2932026-09-18: 0.2952026-09-19: 0.2942026-09-20: 0.2942026-09-21: 0.2942026-09-22: 0.2942026-09-23: 0.2942026-09-24: 0.2862026-09-25: 0.2862026-09-26: 0.286 2026-09-12 2026-09-26 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Little, Brendon · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 33%33%Zone: 35%35%Whiff: 39%39%Called strike: 15%15%First pitch strike: 44%44%Hard hit allowed: 42%42% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Little, Brendon · 2026 arsenal snapshot Knuckle Curve: 28.5%Slider: 27.6%Sinker: 26.4%4-Seam Fastball: 17.1%Cutter: 0.4% KC29% · 87 mphprimary pitch KC 29%SL 28%SI 26%FF 17%FC 0% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Little, Brendon · 2026 arsenal snapshot 12″24″36″48″ Knuckle Curve: 29% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 48″ drop, 86.6 mphKC87 mphSlider: 28% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 35″ drop, 88.9 mphSL89 mphSinker: 26% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 94.5 mphSI95 mph4-Seam Fastball: 17% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 16″ drop, 96.0 mphFF96 mphCutter: 0% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 28″ drop, 92.4 mphFC92 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
SI 29.9% 102 95 limited sample
CB 29.0% 99 98 limited sample
SL 22.3% 76 92 limited sample
FB 17.9% 61 98 limited sample
FC 0.9% 3 116 limited sample
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Volume stays relief-shaped even when the bat-miss traits are strong.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: Sinker 46%, Knuckle Curve 45%, Cutter 10%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ+3.39
K% Δ+0.096
Sample26.7 IP
Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings37.3----
Batters Faced167----
K%24.4%17.5% to 31.4%+/- 6.9%
BB%11.7%8.3% to 17.4%+/- 4.5%
Whiff%32.5%28.7% to 41.6%+/- 6.5%
HR/91.000.25 to 1.71+/- 0.73
xwOBA Against0.3060.243 to 0.357+/- 0.057
Barrel% Allowed7.0%3.1% to 11.0%+/- 3.9%
ERA3.441.26 to 5.79+/- 2.27
FIP3.822.75 to 5.72+/- 1.48
WHIP1.3911.084 to 1.821+/- 0.369
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

263 career BF

xwOBA0.285
K%23.3%
BB%12.2%
Barrel7.1%
vs RHH

301 career BF

xwOBA0.303
K%21.1%
BB%13.3%
Barrel6.3%