Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 40%, Slider 33%, Split-Finger 27%.
Pitcher projection / TOR · 2026
Yesavage, Trey
Run-prevention profile built on workable command
Team TOR
Archetype Offspeed mix artist
Age 23
Status Healthy / active roster
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| ERA preseason | 3.92 |
| ERA current pace | 2.25 |
| ERA rolling p50 | 3.28 |
| Observed weight | 38% |
ERA
2.22
2.72
3.28
3.84
4.34
FIP
2.53
2.92
3.35
3.78
4.17
K%
24.9%
26.9%
29.1%
31.3%
33.3%
BB%
7.8%
8.9%
10.0%
11.2%
12.3%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Pitching · percentile strip
BB%11.4%
20
Barrel allowed3.3%
94
+45 vs proj
Fastball velo94.3
50
Hard-hit allowed28.3%
95
K%26.2%
76
Whiff%27.7%
80
-17 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.252
93
Mithrandir+
Stuff+ and arsenal context
Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.
Mithrandir Stuff+102
53
Optimization map
Arsenal optimization map
Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.
3Pitches
2026Season
47%Top usage
ride
armside
gloveside
+Arsenal gap
+Shape contrast
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Pitch arsenal
Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition
2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.
| Pitch | Usage | Pitches | Stuff+ | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FB | 69.9% | 241 | 105 | qualified |
| SL | 30.1% | 104 | 102 | limited sample |
Method note
Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.
Live context
Current-season signal
| ERA Δ | -1.52 |
| K% Δ | -0.038 |
| Sample | 37.0 IP |
positive regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings | 65.5 | -- | -- |
| Batters Faced | 274 | -- | -- |
| K% | 30.0% | 25.9% to 38.2% | +/- 6.1% |
| BB% | 10.2% | 6.8% to 12.7% | +/- 3.0% |
| Whiff% | 34.5% | 29.1% to 39.3% | +/- 5.1% |
| HR/9 | 1.36 | 0.58 to 1.71 | +/- 0.57 |
| xwOBA Against | 0.277 | 0.234 to 0.338 | +/- 0.052 |
| Barrel% Allowed | 7.8% | 5.2% to 10.8% | +/- 2.8% |
| ERA | 3.77 | 2.45 to 5.36 | +/- 1.46 |
| FIP | 3.69 | 2.30 to 4.54 | +/- 1.12 |
| WHIP | 1.224 | 0.903 to 1.555 | +/- 0.326 |
vs LHH
90 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.235 |
| K% | 28.9% |
| BB% | 9.8% |
| Barrel | 6.9% |
vs RHH
81 career BF
| xwOBA | 0.238 |
| K% | 28.1% |
| BB% | 7.9% |
| Barrel | 6.9% |