Mithrandir Metrics
Pitcher projection 2026 Refreshed Jul 16 06:00 AM ET
Pitcher projection / TOR · 2026

Yesavage, Trey

Run-prevention profile built on workable command

Primary
30.0% K%
Range
25.9% to 38.2%
Live Δ
yes
Team TOR Archetype Offspeed mix artist Age 23 Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
54
Pitching
percentile
Pitching9 metrics
61
Arsenal3 metrics
49
Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-16
ERA preseason3.92
ERA current pace3.72
ERA rolling p503.81
Observed weight56%
ERA
2.77 3.26 3.81 4.35 4.84
FIP
3.23 3.61 4.03 4.45 4.83
K%
22.8% 24.3% 26.0% 27.7% 29.2%
BB%
9.2% 10.1% 11.1% 12.1% 13.0%
Current percentile strip

Actual percentile with projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-16
Pitching · percentile strip
WHIP1.16
73
ERA3.72
57
BB%12.5%
15 -16 vs proj
K%22.2%
47 -46 vs proj
xwOBA allowed0.284
78
Barrel allowed5.5%
80 +34 vs proj
Fastball velo94.4
48
Hard-hit allowed35.3%
74
Whiff%27.5%
81 -18 vs proj
Mithrandir+

Stuff+ and arsenal context

Stuff+ appears when the current pitch-event scoring artifact includes this pitcher; Arsenal Decomposition remains descriptive support under Stuff+.

2026-07-16
Fastball Stuff+104
68
Mithrandir Stuff+101
45
Slider Stuff+100
36
Optimization map

Arsenal optimization map

Pitch-shape context from this pitcher’s current arsenal snapshot. Hover a pitch to inspect usage, movement, and bat-missing context.

3Pitches 2026Season 46%Top usage
ride armside gloveside +Arsenal gap +Shape contrast
Rolling form chart

xwOBA allowed snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots
Mithrandir Metrics ROLLING XWOBA LINE Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Rolling xwOBA allowed Yesavage, Trey · Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs LG AVG 0.314 0.284 2026-07-05: 0.2792026-07-06: 0.2792026-07-07: 0.2752026-07-08: 0.2752026-07-09: 0.2752026-07-10: 0.2752026-07-11: 0.2752026-07-12: 0.2752026-07-13: 0.2842026-07-14: 0.2842026-07-15: 0.2842026-07-16: 0.284 2026-07-05 2026-07-16 xwOBA allowed MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Mithrandir Metrics ZONE HEATMAP Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. season=2026 Pitch Zone Profile Yesavage, Trey · Aggregate zone metrics; not pitch-by-pitch locations Edge: 38%38%Zone: 43%43%Whiff: 28%28%Called strike: 14%14%First pitch strike: 47%47%Hard hit allowed: 35%35% Dashed border = aggregate mixed-batter zone proxy MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Pitch arsenal

Usage mix, movement map, and Stuff+ composition

2026 pitch-level arsenal aggregates; current season takes over after 100 tracked pitches across at least 2 pitch types. Descriptive pitch-type Stuff+ composition. Not a promoted predictive metric.

2026
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH ARSENAL DONUT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Yesavage, Trey · 2026 arsenal snapshot 4-Seam Fastball: 45.8%Split-Finger: 29.5%Slider: 24.7% FF46% · 94 mphprimary pitch FF 46%FS 30%SL 25% MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
Mithrandir Metrics PITCH MOVEMENT Parameterized Mithrandir chart rendered as SVG for templates and exports. Pitch Arsenal Yesavage, Trey · 2026 arsenal snapshot 9″18″27″36″ 4-Seam Fastball: 46% usage, 1″ horizontal break, 11″ drop, 94.4 mphFF94 mphSplit-Finger: 30% usage, 6″ horizontal break, 33″ drop, 82.9 mphFS83 mphSlider: 25% usage, 2″ horizontal break, 30″ drop, 87.8 mphSL88 mph less drop ↑ more drop ↓ · horizontal break ↔ · dot size = usage · break incl. gravity MITHRANDIR · CHARTS
PitchUsagePitchesStuff+Status
FB 63.3% 354 104 qualified
SL 36.7% 205 100 qualified
Method note

Renamed from the attempted Kirby Index after audit; true Kirby requires release-angle trajectory data.

Model read

Projection notes

1
templated note
Home park slightly inflates the home-run risk band.
pitcher
2
templated note
Primary mix entering the season: 4-Seam Fastball 40%, Slider 33%, Split-Finger 27%.
pitcher
Live context

Current-season signal

ERA Δ-0.05
K% Δ-0.078
Sample75.0 IP

positive regression

Projection table

Point projection and range

MetricPointRangeHalf-width
Innings65.2----
Batters Faced273----
K%30.0%25.9% to 38.2%+/- 6.1%
BB%10.2%6.8% to 12.7%+/- 3.0%
Whiff%34.5%29.1% to 39.3%+/- 5.1%
HR/91.360.58 to 1.71+/- 0.57
xwOBA Against0.2770.234 to 0.338+/- 0.052
Barrel% Allowed7.8%5.2% to 10.8%+/- 2.8%
ERA3.772.45 to 5.36+/- 1.46
FIP3.692.30 to 4.54+/- 1.12
WHIP1.2240.903 to 1.555+/- 0.326
Platoon / Shape
vs LHH

90 career BF

xwOBA0.235
K%28.9%
BB%9.8%
Barrel6.9%
vs RHH

81 career BF

xwOBA0.238
K%28.1%
BB%7.9%
Barrel6.9%