Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / TOR · 2026
Kirk, Alejandro
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team TOR
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 28
Status IL-60
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.346 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.298 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.339 |
| Observed weight | 14% |
xwOBA
0.309
0.324
0.339
0.355
0.369
wOBA
0.398
0.448
0.505
0.561
0.611
ISO
0.111
0.133
0.157
0.182
0.204
K%
10.1%
11.7%
13.6%
15.4%
17.1%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Defense · percentile strip
Pop Time2.0 · C
40
Blocking Runs0.3 · C
Limited
Catcher Throwing0.1 · C
Limited
Framing Runs1.5 · C
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed22.8 · C
Limited
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 52.3% · rebadged research
5
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 32.4% · rebadged research
8
Correct Decisions56.8% · rebadged research
4
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.293 · borderline
31
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · insufficient sample
33
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.272 · validated thin sample
63
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · insufficient sample
75
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.347 · validated
74
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline84
5
Rolling form chart
xwOBA allowed snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
No chart yet
No Live State xwOBA snapshots are available for this player.
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
26 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
No Live State delta is available for this player yet.
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 542 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 14 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.343 | 0.316 to 0.378 | +/- 0.031 |
| ISO | 0.138 | 0.097 to 0.201 | +/- 0.052 |
| Barrel% | 6.0% | 4.4% to 8.4% | +/- 2.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 43.8% | 40.5% to 51.4% | +/- 5.4% |
| K% | 12.9% | 10.4% to 18.1% | +/- 3.9% |
| BB% | 8.9% | 7.6% to 12.7% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.281 | 0.251 to 0.322 | +/- 0.036 |
vs LHP
603 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.279 |
| K% | 11.6% |
| BB% | 8.9% |
| Barrel | 5.2% |
vs RHP
1667 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.289 |
| K% | 9.7% |
| BB% | 7.7% |
| Barrel | 5.4% |