Model read
Projection notes
1
templated note
Home park adds a small power tailwind to the HR projection.
Hitter projection / TOR · 2026
Kirk, Alejandro
Everyday offensive profile with usable floor
Team TOR
Archetype Balanced regular
Age 28
Status Healthy / active roster
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
19
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.346 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.263 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.318 |
| Observed weight | 34% |
xwOBA
0.291
0.304
0.318
0.332
0.345
wOBA
0.264
0.290
0.320
0.349
0.376
ISO
0.104
0.121
0.141
0.161
0.178
K%
10.8%
12.2%
13.7%
15.3%
16.7%
Current percentile strip
Actual percentile with projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.8%
10
-55 vs proj
Exit velocity87.0
35
Hard-hit%37.6%
45
-26 vs proj
xBA0.257
7
xSLG0.359
5
xwOBA0.263
12
-68 vs proj
BB%9.7%
64
Bat speed68.9
39
K%15.0%
86
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs1.8 · C
96
Catcher Throwing-0.4 · C
38
Framing Runs2.6 · C
77
Pop Time2.0 · C
10
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed22.9 · C
0
Mithrandir+
SEAGER+ and decision components
SEAGER+ is the promoted plate-discipline index; component rows marked rebadged research are visible diagnostic context, not standalone promoted metrics.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.0% · rebadged research
37
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.5% · rebadged research
28
Correct Decisions63.2% · rebadged research
22
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.279 · borderline
71
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.287 · insufficient sample
25
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.282 · validated thin sample
44
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.318 · insufficient sample
85
Resists FastballwOBA 0.350 · validated
28
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.357 · validated
56
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
28
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
41 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
All BIP
Singles
Doubles
Triples
HR
vs LHP
vs RHP
Home / Away
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
No bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
No bat tracking
No Savant bat-tracking aggregate is available for this hitter.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live context
Current-season signal
| xwOBA Δ | -0.080 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.023 |
| Sample | 113 PA |
negative regression
Projection table
Point projection and range
| Metric | Point | Range | Half-width |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plate Appearances | 542 | -- | -- |
| Home Runs | 14 | -- | -- |
| Stolen Bases | 0 | -- | -- |
| xwOBA | 0.343 | 0.316 to 0.378 | +/- 0.031 |
| ISO | 0.138 | 0.097 to 0.201 | +/- 0.052 |
| Barrel% | 6.0% | 4.4% to 8.4% | +/- 2.0% |
| Hard-Hit% | 43.8% | 40.5% to 51.4% | +/- 5.4% |
| K% | 12.9% | 10.4% to 18.1% | +/- 3.9% |
| BB% | 8.9% | 7.6% to 12.7% | +/- 2.6% |
| BABIP | 0.281 | 0.251 to 0.322 | +/- 0.036 |
vs LHP
603 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.279 |
| K% | 11.6% |
| BB% | 8.9% |
| Barrel | 5.2% |
vs RHP
1667 career PA
| xwOBA | 0.289 |
| K% | 9.7% |
| BB% | 7.7% |
| Barrel | 5.4% |