Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dylan Cease
Probable | projected
|
TOR vs BAL
Score 67.6 | Lineup K 6.59
|
6.95 | 6.92 | -0.03 | 87.1% | 76.9% | 64.5% | 51.4% | 39.0% |
Joe Ryan
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs CLE
Score 73.2 | Lineup K 5.67
|
6.06 | 6.03 | -0.03 | 80.7% | 67.6% | 53.3% | 39.6% | 27.9% |
Freddy Peralta
Probable | projected
|
TB vs HOU
Score 68.6 | Lineup K 5.85
|
5.93 | 5.99 | +0.06 | 80.3% | 67.2% | 52.8% | 39.1% | 27.4% |
Cam Schlittler
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs NYM
Score 65.3 | Lineup K 5.72
|
6.00 | 5.97 | -0.03 | 80.2% | 66.9% | 52.5% | 38.8% | 27.1% |
Logan Webb
Probable | projected
|
SF vs SD
Score 51.5 | Lineup K 5.52
|
5.83 | 5.73 | -0.10 | 77.9% | 63.9% | 49.2% | 35.5% | 24.2% |
Nick Pivetta
Probable | projected
|
SD vs SF
Score 64.0 | Lineup K 5.63
|
5.34 | 5.50 | +0.16 | 75.6% | 60.9% | 45.8% | 32.4% | 21.5% |
Grant Holmes
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs PHI
Score 52.3 | Lineup K 5.67
|
4.72 | 5.06 | +0.34 | 70.5% | 54.5% | 39.2% | 26.3% | 16.6% |
Tanner Bibee
Probable | projected
|
CLE vs MIN
Score 60.3 | Lineup K 5.81
|
4.60 | 5.06 | +0.46 | 70.5% | 54.5% | 39.2% | 26.3% | 16.6% |
Matthew Boyd
Probable | projected
|
CHC vs PIT
Score 54.9 | Lineup K 5.11
|
4.99 | 5.05 | +0.06 | 70.3% | 54.4% | 39.1% | 26.2% | 16.5% |
Jacob Lopez
Probable | projected
|
ATH vs SEA
Score 53.1 | Lineup K 5.73
|
4.60 | 5.01 | +0.41 | 69.8% | 53.8% | 38.5% | 25.7% | 16.1% |
Emmet Sheehan
Probable | projected
|
LAD vs MIA
Score 67.0 | Lineup K 5.47
|
4.71 | 4.99 | +0.28 | 69.6% | 53.5% | 38.1% | 25.4% | 15.9% |
Eduardo Rodriguez
Probable | projected
|
AZ vs TEX
Score 44.4 | Lineup K 5.36
|
4.47 | 4.76 | +0.29 | 66.5% | 49.9% | 34.6% | 22.4% | 13.6% |
Eury Pérez
Probable | projected
|
MIA vs LAD
Score 49.7 | Lineup K 5.02
|
4.67 | 4.74 | +0.07 | 66.2% | 49.5% | 34.3% | 22.1% | 13.4% |
Bryce Miller
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs ATH
Score 53.9 | Lineup K 5.40
|
4.06 | 4.54 | +0.48 | 63.3% | 46.3% | 31.2% | 19.6% | 11.5% |
Trevor Rogers
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs TOR
Score 41.0 | Lineup K 4.82
|
4.35 | 4.48 | +0.13 | 62.4% | 45.3% | 30.3% | 18.8% | 10.9% |
Noah Cameron
Probable | projected
|
KC vs BOS
Score 38.6 | Lineup K 4.92
|
4.02 | 4.30 | +0.28 | 59.6% | 42.2% | 27.5% | 16.7% | 9.4% |
Jackson Jobe
Probable | projected
|
DET vs COL
Score 37.6 | Lineup K 5.12
|
3.91 | 4.29 | +0.38 | 59.4% | 42.0% | 27.4% | 16.5% | 9.3% |
Hayden Wesneski
Probable | projected
|
HOU vs TB
Score 42.8 | Lineup K 4.18
|
4.14 | 4.13 | -0.01 | 56.8% | 39.3% | 25.0% | 14.7% | 8.1% |
Michael McGreevy
Probable | projected
|
STL vs CWS
Score 35.7 | Lineup K 3.79
|
3.25 | 3.40 | +0.15 | 43.3% | 26.5% | 14.8% | 7.6% | 3.6% |
Cal Quantrill
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs AZ
Score 11.6 | Lineup K 3.36
|
2.85 | 2.94 | +0.09 | 34.0% | 18.8% | 9.4% | 4.3% | 1.8% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.