{ "date": "2026-09-18", "generated_at": "2026-09-18T23:45:19.388830", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder", "projection_date": "2026-09-18", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 70, "matched_count": 35, "unmatched_count": 35 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 35, "grouped_pitcher_count": 12, "sportsbook_count": 3 }, "edge_count": 35, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "pitcher_id": 676917, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-18T11:54:51.824Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -165, "under_odds": 125, "expected_strikeouts": 3.4, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.06, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.4, "skill_score": 68.8, "opportunity_score": 50.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 49.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1478, "model_under_probability": 0.8522, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6226, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4444, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5835, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4165, "edge_over": -0.4748, "edge_under": 0.4078, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.4078, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.11, "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 83.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "pitcher_id": 676917, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-18T11:53:35.452Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 103, "under_odds": -131, "expected_strikeouts": 3.4, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.06, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.4, "skill_score": 68.8, "opportunity_score": 50.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 49.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.0757, "model_under_probability": 0.9243, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4926, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5671, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4648, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5352, "edge_over": -0.4169, "edge_under": 0.3572, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.3572, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.11, "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 83.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "pitcher_id": 676917, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-18T11:53:53.080Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 114, "under_odds": -146, "expected_strikeouts": 3.4, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.06, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.4, "skill_score": 68.8, "opportunity_score": 50.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 49.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.0757, "model_under_probability": 0.9243, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5935, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4405, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5595, "edge_over": -0.3916, "edge_under": 0.3308, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.3308, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.11, "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 83.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "pitcher_id": 669160, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-18T11:53:35.452Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -101, "under_odds": -127, "expected_strikeouts": 4.23, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.84, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.23, "skill_score": 19.1, "opportunity_score": 15.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2648, "model_under_probability": 0.7352, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5025, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5595, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4732, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5268, "edge_over": -0.2377, "edge_under": 0.1757, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1757, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.39, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.101, "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.12, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "pitcher_id": 669160, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-18T11:53:53.080Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 104, "under_odds": -132, "expected_strikeouts": 4.23, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.84, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.23, "skill_score": 19.1, "opportunity_score": 15.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2648, "model_under_probability": 0.7352, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4628, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5372, "edge_over": -0.2254, "edge_under": 0.1662, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1662, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.39, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.101, "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.12, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "pitcher_id": 669160, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-18T11:54:18.830Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -135, "expected_strikeouts": 4.23, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.84, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.23, "skill_score": 19.1, "opportunity_score": 15.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2648, "model_under_probability": 0.7352, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4653, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5347, "edge_over": -0.2352, "edge_under": 0.1607, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1607, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.39, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.101, "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.12, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Clay Holmes", "pitcher_id": 605280, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-18T11:54:25.011Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -130, "under_odds": -105, "expected_strikeouts": 4.11, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "skill_score": 11.6, "opportunity_score": 58.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3895, "model_under_probability": 0.6105, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5246, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4754, "edge_over": -0.1757, "edge_under": 0.0983, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0983, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.41, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.111, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13465.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.35, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Glasnow", "pitcher_id": 607192, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-18T11:53:53.080Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 118, "expected_strikeouts": 6.41, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.27, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.41, "skill_score": 60.8, "opportunity_score": 29.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 100.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4478, "model_under_probability": 0.5522, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5667, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4333, "edge_over": -0.1522, "edge_under": 0.0935, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0935, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.022, "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21126.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.27, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Glasnow", "pitcher_id": 607192, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-18T11:53:35.452Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -148, "under_odds": 116, "expected_strikeouts": 6.41, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.27, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.41, "skill_score": 60.8, "opportunity_score": 29.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 100.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4478, "model_under_probability": 0.5522, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5968, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5631, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4369, "edge_over": -0.149, "edge_under": 0.0892, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0892, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.022, "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21126.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.27, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Clay Holmes", "pitcher_id": 605280, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-18T11:53:35.452Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -111, "expected_strikeouts": 4.11, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "skill_score": 11.6, "opportunity_score": 58.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3895, "model_under_probability": 0.6105, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5041, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4959, "edge_over": -0.1454, "edge_under": 0.0844, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0844, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.41, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.111, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13465.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.35, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Pivetta", "pitcher_id": 601713, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-18T11:54:23.349Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 135, "under_odds": -185, "expected_strikeouts": 5.79, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.72, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.79, "skill_score": 47.0, "opportunity_score": 6.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 100.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5001, "model_under_probability": 0.4999, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4255, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6491, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.396, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.604, "edge_over": 0.0746, "edge_under": -0.1492, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0746, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27855.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.71, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 64.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Mahle", "pitcher_id": 641816, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-18T11:54:54.196Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -110, "under_odds": -120, "expected_strikeouts": 4.08, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.03, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.08, "skill_score": 17.4, "opportunity_score": 59.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3843, "model_under_probability": 0.6157, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4899, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5101, "edge_over": -0.1395, "edge_under": 0.0702, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0702, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9084.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.27, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Mahle", "pitcher_id": 641816, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-18T11:53:35.452Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -104, "under_odds": -122, "expected_strikeouts": 4.08, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.03, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.08, "skill_score": 17.4, "opportunity_score": 59.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3843, "model_under_probability": 0.6157, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4813, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5187, "edge_over": -0.1255, "edge_under": 0.0662, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0662, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9084.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.27, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Glasnow", "pitcher_id": 607192, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-18T11:55:04.735Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -140, "under_odds": 105, "expected_strikeouts": 6.41, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.27, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.41, "skill_score": 60.8, "opportunity_score": 29.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 100.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4478, "model_under_probability": 0.5522, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5446, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4554, "edge_over": -0.1355, "edge_under": 0.0644, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0644, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.022, "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21126.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.27, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "pitcher_id": 656302, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-18T11:54:46.480Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 6.6, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.57, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.6, "skill_score": 57.1, "opportunity_score": 54.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.0, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 35.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3497, "model_under_probability": 0.6503, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4425, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5575, "edge_over": -0.1265, "edge_under": 0.0503, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0503, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.005, "aggregate_matchup_score": 68.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.39, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 85.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "pitcher_id": 656302, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-18T11:53:35.452Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 118, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 6.6, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.57, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.6, "skill_score": 57.1, "opportunity_score": 54.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.0, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 35.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3497, "model_under_probability": 0.6503, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4333, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5667, "edge_over": -0.109, "edge_under": 0.0503, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0503, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.005, "aggregate_matchup_score": 68.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.39, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 85.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Clay Holmes", "pitcher_id": 605280, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-18T11:53:53.080Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -128, "expected_strikeouts": 4.11, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "skill_score": 11.6, "opportunity_score": 58.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3895, "model_under_probability": 0.6105, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4711, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5289, "edge_over": -0.1105, "edge_under": 0.0491, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0491, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.41, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.111, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13465.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.35, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Mahle", "pitcher_id": 641816, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-18T11:53:53.080Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 104, "under_odds": -132, "expected_strikeouts": 4.08, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.03, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.08, "skill_score": 17.4, "opportunity_score": 59.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3843, "model_under_probability": 0.6157, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4628, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5372, "edge_over": -0.1059, "edge_under": 0.0467, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0467, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9084.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.27, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "pitcher_id": 656302, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-18T11:53:53.080Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 120, "under_odds": -154, "expected_strikeouts": 6.6, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.57, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.6, "skill_score": 57.1, "opportunity_score": 54.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.0, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 35.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3497, "model_under_probability": 0.6503, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4285, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5715, "edge_over": -0.1048, "edge_under": 0.044, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.044, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.005, "aggregate_matchup_score": 68.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.39, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 85.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez", "pitcher_id": 593958, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-18T11:53:35.452Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -157, "under_odds": 123, "expected_strikeouts": 4.86, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.47, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.86, "skill_score": 26.8, "opportunity_score": 63.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 20.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5144, "model_under_probability": 0.4856, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6109, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4484, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5767, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4233, "edge_over": -0.0965, "edge_under": 0.0372, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0372, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.39, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.087, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23520.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.67, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Pivetta", "pitcher_id": 601713, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-18T11:53:35.452Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -165, "under_odds": 129, "expected_strikeouts": 5.79, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.72, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.79, "skill_score": 47.0, "opportunity_score": 6.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 100.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6469, "model_under_probability": 0.3531, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6226, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4367, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5877, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4123, "edge_over": 0.0243, "edge_under": -0.0836, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0243, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27855.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.71, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 64.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Pivetta", "pitcher_id": 601713, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-18T11:53:53.080Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -166, "under_odds": 130, "expected_strikeouts": 5.79, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.72, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.79, "skill_score": 47.0, "opportunity_score": 6.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 100.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6469, "model_under_probability": 0.3531, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6241, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5894, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4106, "edge_over": 0.0228, "edge_under": -0.0817, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0228, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27855.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.71, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 64.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez", "pitcher_id": 593958, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-18T11:53:53.080Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -142, "under_odds": 112, "expected_strikeouts": 4.86, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.47, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.86, "skill_score": 26.8, "opportunity_score": 63.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 20.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5144, "model_under_probability": 0.4856, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5868, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4717, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5544, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4456, "edge_over": -0.0724, "edge_under": 0.0139, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0139, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.39, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.087, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23520.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.67, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "pitcher_id": 693433, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-18T11:53:35.452Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -142, "under_odds": 111, "expected_strikeouts": 5.43, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.43, "skill_score": 39.8, "opportunity_score": 54.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 55.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 40.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.599, "model_under_probability": 0.401, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5868, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4739, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5532, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4468, "edge_over": 0.0122, "edge_under": -0.0729, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0122, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.69, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.146, "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.53, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 61.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "pitcher_id": 693433, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-18T11:53:53.080Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -146, "under_odds": 114, "expected_strikeouts": 5.43, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.43, "skill_score": 39.8, "opportunity_score": 54.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 55.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 40.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.599, "model_under_probability": 0.401, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5935, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5595, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4405, "edge_over": 0.0055, "edge_under": -0.0663, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0055, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.69, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.146, "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.53, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 61.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ranger Suarez", "pitcher_id": 624133, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-18T11:53:35.452Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -107, "under_odds": -119, "expected_strikeouts": 4.53, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.53, "skill_score": 15.3, "opportunity_score": 54.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 59.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.461, "model_under_probability": 0.539, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5169, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5434, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4875, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5125, "edge_over": -0.0559, "edge_under": -0.0044, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0044, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27635.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-18T11:53:53.080Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -130, "under_odds": 102, "expected_strikeouts": 5.89, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.72, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.89, "skill_score": 22.6, "opportunity_score": 45.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 52.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5141, "model_under_probability": 0.4859, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5331, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4669, "edge_over": -0.0511, "edge_under": -0.0091, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0091, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.91, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.7, "wind_speed_mph": 1.1, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez", "pitcher_id": 593958, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-18T11:54:57.796Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -135, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 4.86, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.47, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.86, "skill_score": 26.8, "opportunity_score": 63.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 20.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5144, "model_under_probability": 0.4856, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5347, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4653, "edge_over": -0.0601, "edge_under": -0.0144, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0144, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.39, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.087, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23520.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.67, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "pitcher_id": 677958, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-18T11:53:53.080Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 134, "under_odds": -172, "expected_strikeouts": 4.24, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.23, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.24, "skill_score": 25.3, "opportunity_score": 33.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 71.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.412, "model_under_probability": 0.588, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4274, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6324, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4033, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5967, "edge_over": -0.0154, "edge_under": -0.0444, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0154, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.003, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.41, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 85.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ranger Suarez", "pitcher_id": 624133, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-18T11:53:53.080Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -102, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 4.53, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.53, "skill_score": 15.3, "opportunity_score": 54.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 59.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.461, "model_under_probability": 0.539, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4761, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5239, "edge_over": -0.044, "edge_under": -0.0166, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0166, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27635.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "pitcher_id": 677958, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-18T11:53:35.452Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 132, "under_odds": -170, "expected_strikeouts": 4.24, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.23, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.24, "skill_score": 25.3, "opportunity_score": 33.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 71.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.412, "model_under_probability": 0.588, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.431, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6296, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4064, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5936, "edge_over": -0.019, "edge_under": -0.0416, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.019, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.003, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.41, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 85.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-18T11:54:43.641Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -125, "under_odds": -105, "expected_strikeouts": 5.89, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.72, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.89, "skill_score": 22.6, "opportunity_score": 45.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 52.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5141, "model_under_probability": 0.4859, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5203, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4797, "edge_over": -0.0415, "edge_under": -0.0263, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0263, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.91, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.7, "wind_speed_mph": 1.1, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-18T11:53:35.452Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -106, "expected_strikeouts": 5.89, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.72, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.89, "skill_score": 22.6, "opportunity_score": 45.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 52.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5141, "model_under_probability": 0.4859, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5146, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5146, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4854, "edge_over": -0.0314, "edge_under": -0.0287, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0287, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.91, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.7, "wind_speed_mph": 1.1, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "pitcher_id": 677958, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-18T11:54:46.480Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -165, "under_odds": 125, "expected_strikeouts": 4.24, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.23, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.24, "skill_score": 25.3, "opportunity_score": 33.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 71.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5857, "model_under_probability": 0.4143, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6226, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4444, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5835, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4165, "edge_over": -0.0369, "edge_under": -0.0301, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0301, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.003, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.41, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 85.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ranger Suarez", "pitcher_id": 624133, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-09-18T11:54:43.988Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -135, "expected_strikeouts": 4.53, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.53, "skill_score": 15.3, "opportunity_score": 54.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 59.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.461, "model_under_probability": 0.539, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4653, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5347, "edge_over": -0.039, "edge_under": -0.0355, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0355, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27635.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [ { "pitcher_name": "Chase Burns", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Chase Burns", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Chase Burns", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Connor Prielipp", "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Connor Prielipp", "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Connor Prielipp", "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "David Sandlin", "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "David Sandlin", "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "David Sandlin", "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "ARI", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "ARI", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "ARI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Grayson Rodriguez", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Grayson Rodriguez", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Grayson Rodriguez", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ian Seymour", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ian Seymour", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ian Seymour", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Leahy", "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Leahy", "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Mason Barnett", "team_abbr": "OAK", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Mason Barnett", "team_abbr": "OAK", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Mason Barnett", "team_abbr": "OAK", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Randy Dobnak", "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Randy Dobnak", "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Randy Dobnak", "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Zac Thornton", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Zac Thornton", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Zac Thornton", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." } ] }