{ "date": "2026-07-11", "generated_at": "2026-07-11T08:05:23.527043", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "projection_date": "2026-07-11", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 219, "matched_count": 129, "unmatched_count": 90 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 129, "grouped_pitcher_count": 19, "sportsbook_count": 3 }, "edge_count": 129, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "pitcher_id": 657746, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-11T11:57:46.000Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -140, "under_odds": 105, "expected_strikeouts": 6.41, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.04, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.41, "skill_score": 65.6, "opportunity_score": 61.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 47.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3259, "model_under_probability": 0.6741, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5446, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4554, "edge_over": -0.2574, "edge_under": 0.1863, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1863, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.072, "aggregate_matchup_score": 80.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29998.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 91.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "pitcher_id": 657746, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -125, "under_odds": -102, "expected_strikeouts": 6.41, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.04, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.41, "skill_score": 65.6, "opportunity_score": 61.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 47.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3259, "model_under_probability": 0.6741, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5239, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4761, "edge_over": -0.2297, "edge_under": 0.1691, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1691, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.072, "aggregate_matchup_score": 80.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29998.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 91.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "pitcher_id": 657746, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-11T11:58:26.957Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -125, "under_odds": -102, "expected_strikeouts": 6.41, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.04, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.41, "skill_score": 65.6, "opportunity_score": 61.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 47.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3259, "model_under_probability": 0.6741, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5239, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4761, "edge_over": -0.2297, "edge_under": 0.1691, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1691, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.072, "aggregate_matchup_score": 80.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29998.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 91.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "pitcher_id": 669461, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-11T11:57:58.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -126, "under_odds": -101, "expected_strikeouts": 3.79, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.79, "skill_score": 40.3, "opportunity_score": 46.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.2, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 53.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3335, "model_under_probability": 0.6665, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5575, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5025, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5259, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4741, "edge_over": -0.224, "edge_under": 0.164, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.164, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 19.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.98, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "pitcher_id": 657746, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-11T11:57:58.000Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -106, "expected_strikeouts": 6.41, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.04, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.41, "skill_score": 65.6, "opportunity_score": 61.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 47.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3259, "model_under_probability": 0.6741, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5146, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5146, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4854, "edge_over": -0.2196, "edge_under": 0.1595, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1595, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.072, "aggregate_matchup_score": 80.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29998.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 91.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "pitcher_id": 669461, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -113, "under_odds": -113, "expected_strikeouts": 3.79, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.79, "skill_score": 40.3, "opportunity_score": 46.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.2, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 53.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3335, "model_under_probability": 0.6665, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5305, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5305, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.197, "edge_under": 0.136, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.136, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 19.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.98, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "pitcher_id": 669461, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-11T11:58:26.957Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -113, "under_odds": -113, "expected_strikeouts": 3.79, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.79, "skill_score": 40.3, "opportunity_score": 46.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.2, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 53.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3335, "model_under_probability": 0.6665, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5305, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5305, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.197, "edge_under": 0.136, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.136, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 19.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.98, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "pitcher_id": 702070, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 112, "under_odds": -142, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.0, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 16.0, "opportunity_score": 39.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 57.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2785, "model_under_probability": 0.7215, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4717, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5868, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4456, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5544, "edge_over": -0.1932, "edge_under": 0.1347, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1347, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.08, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10820.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "pitcher_id": 702070, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-11T11:58:26.957Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 112, "under_odds": -142, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.0, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 16.0, "opportunity_score": 39.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 57.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2785, "model_under_probability": 0.7215, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4717, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5868, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4456, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5544, "edge_over": -0.1932, "edge_under": 0.1347, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1347, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.08, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10820.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "pitcher_id": 650911, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-11T11:58:39.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -140, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 5.98, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.84, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.98, "skill_score": 66.9, "opportunity_score": 63.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.6, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 20.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3896, "model_under_probability": 0.6104, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5505, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4495, "edge_over": -0.1937, "edge_under": 0.1342, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1342, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.024, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30021.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.04, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 74.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "pitcher_id": 650911, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-11T11:58:26.957Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -138, "under_odds": 108, "expected_strikeouts": 5.98, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.84, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.98, "skill_score": 66.9, "opportunity_score": 63.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.6, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 20.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3896, "model_under_probability": 0.6104, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5798, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5467, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4533, "edge_over": -0.1902, "edge_under": 0.1296, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1296, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.024, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30021.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.04, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 74.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "pitcher_id": 702070, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-11T11:58:23.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 116, "under_odds": -149, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.0, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 16.0, "opportunity_score": 39.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 57.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2785, "model_under_probability": 0.7215, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5984, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4362, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5638, "edge_over": -0.1845, "edge_under": 0.1231, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1231, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.08, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10820.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "pitcher_id": 607536, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-11T11:57:57.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 108, "under_odds": -137, "expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.7, "skill_score": 21.9, "opportunity_score": 31.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 64.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3177, "model_under_probability": 0.6823, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5781, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4541, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5459, "edge_over": -0.1631, "edge_under": 0.1042, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1042, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.008, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26728.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.95, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 12.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "pitcher_id": 607536, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 108, "under_odds": -138, "expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.7, "skill_score": 21.9, "opportunity_score": 31.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 64.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3177, "model_under_probability": 0.6823, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5798, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4533, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5467, "edge_over": -0.1631, "edge_under": 0.1025, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1025, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.008, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26728.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.95, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 12.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "pitcher_id": 607536, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-11T11:58:26.957Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 108, "under_odds": -138, "expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.7, "skill_score": 21.9, "opportunity_score": 31.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 64.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3177, "model_under_probability": 0.6823, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5798, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4533, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5467, "edge_over": -0.1631, "edge_under": 0.1025, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1025, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.008, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26728.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.95, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 12.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "pitcher_id": 702070, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-11T11:57:45.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 125, "under_odds": -165, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.0, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 16.0, "opportunity_score": 39.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 57.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2785, "model_under_probability": 0.7215, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4444, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6226, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4165, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5835, "edge_over": -0.1659, "edge_under": 0.0989, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0989, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.08, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10820.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "pitcher_id": 650911, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-11T11:57:00.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -125, "under_odds": -105, "expected_strikeouts": 5.98, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.84, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.98, "skill_score": 66.9, "opportunity_score": 63.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.6, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 20.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3896, "model_under_probability": 0.6104, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5203, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4797, "edge_over": -0.166, "edge_under": 0.0982, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0982, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.024, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30021.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.04, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 74.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "pitcher_id": 669461, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-11T11:57:00.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -135, "expected_strikeouts": 3.79, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.79, "skill_score": 40.3, "opportunity_score": 46.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.2, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 53.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3335, "model_under_probability": 0.6665, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4653, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5347, "edge_over": -0.1665, "edge_under": 0.092, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.092, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 19.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.98, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "pitcher_id": 607536, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-11T11:57:58.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.7, "skill_score": 21.9, "opportunity_score": 31.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 64.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3177, "model_under_probability": 0.6823, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4425, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5575, "edge_over": -0.1585, "edge_under": 0.0823, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0823, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.008, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26728.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.95, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 12.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Pfaadt", "pitcher_id": 694297, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-11T11:57:41.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -105, "under_odds": -121, "expected_strikeouts": 4.29, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.08, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.29, "skill_score": 16.0, "opportunity_score": 34.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 58.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5939, "model_under_probability": 0.4061, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5475, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4833, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5167, "edge_over": 0.0817, "edge_under": -0.1414, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0817, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.053, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30360.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.86, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "pitcher_id": 680694, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.78, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.86, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.78, "skill_score": 15.2, "opportunity_score": 62.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2482, "model_under_probability": 0.7518, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1667, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0815, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0815, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.987, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13080.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.45, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Pfaadt", "pitcher_id": 694297, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-11T11:58:26.957Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -106, "under_odds": -120, "expected_strikeouts": 4.29, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.08, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.29, "skill_score": 16.0, "opportunity_score": 34.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 58.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5939, "model_under_probability": 0.4061, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5146, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4854, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5146, "edge_over": 0.0793, "edge_under": -0.1394, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0793, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.053, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30360.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.86, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Mahle", "pitcher_id": 641816, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 118, "under_odds": -148, "expected_strikeouts": 4.64, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.4, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.64, "skill_score": 14.6, "opportunity_score": 32.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 75.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3276, "model_under_probability": 0.6724, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5968, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4346, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5654, "edge_over": -0.1311, "edge_under": 0.0756, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0756, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.056, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9084.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 12.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Javier Assad", "pitcher_id": 665871, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -146, "under_odds": 114, "expected_strikeouts": 3.53, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.19, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.53, "skill_score": 5.2, "opportunity_score": 32.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 69.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4584, "model_under_probability": 0.5416, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5935, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5595, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4405, "edge_over": -0.1351, "edge_under": 0.0743, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0743, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.108, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15298.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.93, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "pitcher_id": 621111, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-11T11:58:12.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -143, "under_odds": 112, "expected_strikeouts": 3.51, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.51, "skill_score": 16.6, "opportunity_score": 23.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 78.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4546, "model_under_probability": 0.5454, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5885, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4717, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5551, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4449, "edge_over": -0.1339, "edge_under": 0.0737, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0737, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.008, "aggregate_matchup_score": 24.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15814.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.77, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "pitcher_id": 680694, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 240, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.78, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.86, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.78, "skill_score": 15.2, "opportunity_score": 62.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3621, "model_under_probability": 0.6379, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2941, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.068, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.068, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.987, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13080.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.45, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "pitcher_id": 808967, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-11T11:57:41.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -153, "under_odds": 119, "expected_strikeouts": 5.62, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.87, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.62, "skill_score": 39.2, "opportunity_score": 78.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 10.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4757, "model_under_probability": 0.5243, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6047, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4566, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5698, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4302, "edge_over": -0.129, "edge_under": 0.0677, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0677, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.958, "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "pitcher_id": 808967, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-11T11:58:26.957Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 118, "expected_strikeouts": 5.62, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.87, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.62, "skill_score": 39.2, "opportunity_score": 78.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 10.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4757, "model_under_probability": 0.5243, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5667, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4333, "edge_over": -0.1243, "edge_under": 0.0656, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0656, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.958, "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "pitcher_id": 693645, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-11T11:58:13.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 122, "under_odds": -156, "expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.61, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "skill_score": 42.3, "opportunity_score": 53.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3262, "model_under_probability": 0.6738, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4505, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6094, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.425, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.575, "edge_over": -0.1243, "edge_under": 0.0644, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0644, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.985, "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "pitcher_id": 693645, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-11T11:58:31.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 120, "under_odds": -160, "expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.61, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "skill_score": 42.3, "opportunity_score": 53.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3262, "model_under_probability": 0.6738, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4248, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5752, "edge_over": -0.1283, "edge_under": 0.0584, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0584, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.985, "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "pitcher_id": 642547, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 680, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.02, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.02, "skill_score": 24.4, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 34.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1849, "model_under_probability": 0.8151, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1282, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0567, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0567, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.99, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "pitcher_id": 676440, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 390, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.59, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.04, "skill_score": 15.6, "opportunity_score": 41.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 60.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2607, "model_under_probability": 0.7393, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2041, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0566, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0566, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.099, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.75, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "pitcher_id": 666157, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 680, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.22, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.22, "skill_score": 17.8, "opportunity_score": 47.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1835, "model_under_probability": 0.8165, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1282, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0553, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0553, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.009, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "pitcher_id": 621111, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-11T11:58:26.957Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -132, "under_odds": 104, "expected_strikeouts": 3.51, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.51, "skill_score": 16.6, "opportunity_score": 23.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 78.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4546, "model_under_probability": 0.5454, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5372, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4628, "edge_over": -0.1144, "edge_under": 0.0552, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0552, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.008, "aggregate_matchup_score": 24.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15814.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.77, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "pitcher_id": 677958, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-11T11:58:31.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 4.24, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.24, "skill_score": 11.3, "opportunity_score": 21.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 89.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.412, "model_under_probability": 0.588, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.1229, "edge_under": 0.0531, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0531, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.005, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.43, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 86.0, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "pitcher_id": 666157, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 330, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.22, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.22, "skill_score": 17.8, "opportunity_score": 47.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2851, "model_under_probability": 0.7149, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2326, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0525, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0525, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.009, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "pitcher_id": 642547, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 340, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.02, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.02, "skill_score": 24.4, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 34.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2774, "model_under_probability": 0.7226, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2273, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0501, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0501, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.99, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "pitcher_id": 693645, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -132, "under_odds": 104, "expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.61, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "skill_score": 42.3, "opportunity_score": 53.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4611, "model_under_probability": 0.5389, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5372, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4628, "edge_over": -0.1079, "edge_under": 0.0487, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0487, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.985, "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "pitcher_id": 693645, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-11T11:58:26.957Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -132, "under_odds": 104, "expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.61, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "skill_score": 42.3, "opportunity_score": 53.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4611, "model_under_probability": 0.5389, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5372, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4628, "edge_over": -0.1079, "edge_under": 0.0487, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0487, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.985, "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "pitcher_id": 621111, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-11T11:57:35.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -135, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 3.51, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.51, "skill_score": 16.6, "opportunity_score": 23.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 78.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4546, "model_under_probability": 0.5454, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5347, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4653, "edge_over": -0.1199, "edge_under": 0.0454, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0454, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.008, "aggregate_matchup_score": 24.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15814.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.77, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Casey Mize", "pitcher_id": 663554, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 108, "under_odds": -138, "expected_strikeouts": 4.98, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.14, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.98, "skill_score": 55.3, "opportunity_score": 47.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 53.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3799, "model_under_probability": 0.6201, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5798, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4533, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5467, "edge_over": -0.1009, "edge_under": 0.0403, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0403, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.969, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18609.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.79, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 74.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "pitcher_id": 676440, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 180, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.59, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.04, "skill_score": 15.6, "opportunity_score": 41.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 60.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3891, "model_under_probability": 0.6109, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3571, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.032, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.032, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.099, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.75, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "pitcher_id": 680694, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 112, "under_odds": -142, "expected_strikeouts": 5.78, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.86, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.78, "skill_score": 15.2, "opportunity_score": 62.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", 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"sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-11T11:58:26.957Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 112, "under_odds": -142, "expected_strikeouts": 5.78, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.86, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.78, "skill_score": 15.2, "opportunity_score": 62.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context 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path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.412, "model_under_probability": 0.588, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4495, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5505, "edge_over": -0.0642, "edge_under": 0.0047, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0047, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.005, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.43, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 86.0, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-11T11:57:54.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -146, "under_odds": 114, "expected_strikeouts": 6.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.12, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.0, "skill_score": 52.6, "opportunity_score": 66.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.2, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 30.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.5293, "model_under_probability": 0.4707, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5935, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5595, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4405, "edge_over": -0.0642, "edge_under": 0.0034, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0034, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.98, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.51, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Miles Mikolas", "pitcher_id": 571945, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -111, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 3.56, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.56, "skill_score": 10.3, "opportunity_score": 30.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 67.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4642, "model_under_probability": 0.5358, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4959, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5041, "edge_over": -0.0619, "edge_under": 0.0009, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0009, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.054, "aggregate_matchup_score": 20.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 32803.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.14, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Miles Mikolas", "pitcher_id": 571945, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-11T11:58:26.957Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -111, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 3.56, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.56, "skill_score": 10.3, "opportunity_score": 30.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 67.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4642, "model_under_probability": 0.5358, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4959, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5041, "edge_over": -0.0619, "edge_under": 0.0009, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0009, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.054, "aggregate_matchup_score": 20.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 32803.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.14, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "pitcher_id": 693645, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 630, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.61, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "skill_score": 42.3, "opportunity_score": 53.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1373, "model_under_probability": 0.8627, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.137, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0003, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0003, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.985, "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "pitcher_id": 677958, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 520, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.24, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.24, "skill_score": 11.3, "opportunity_score": 21.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 89.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1596, "model_under_probability": 0.8404, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1613, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0017, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0017, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.005, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.43, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 86.0, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Casey Mize", "pitcher_id": 663554, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.98, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.14, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.98, "skill_score": 55.3, "opportunity_score": 47.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 53.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1578, "model_under_probability": 0.8422, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1667, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0089, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0089, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.969, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18609.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.79, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 74.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "pitcher_id": 666157, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-11T11:58:12.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -163, "under_odds": 127, "expected_strikeouts": 5.22, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.22, "skill_score": 17.8, "opportunity_score": 47.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5691, "model_under_probability": 0.4309, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6198, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4405, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5846, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4154, "edge_over": -0.0507, "edge_under": -0.0096, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0096, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.009, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 250, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.12, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.0, "skill_score": 52.6, "opportunity_score": 66.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.2, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 30.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.275, "model_under_probability": 0.725, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2857, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0107, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0107, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.98, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.51, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Miles Mikolas", "pitcher_id": 571945, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 450, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.56, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.56, "skill_score": 10.3, "opportunity_score": 30.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 67.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1687, "model_under_probability": 0.8313, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1818, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0131, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0131, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.054, "aggregate_matchup_score": 20.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 32803.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.14, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "pitcher_id": 676440, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -125, "under_odds": -102, "expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.59, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.04, "skill_score": 15.6, "opportunity_score": 41.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 60.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5422, "model_under_probability": 0.4578, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5239, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4761, "edge_over": -0.0134, "edge_under": -0.0472, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0134, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.099, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.75, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "pitcher_id": 676440, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-11T11:58:26.957Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -125, "under_odds": -102, "expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.59, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.04, "skill_score": 15.6, "opportunity_score": 41.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 60.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5422, "model_under_probability": 0.4578, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5239, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4761, "edge_over": -0.0134, "edge_under": -0.0472, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0134, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.099, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.75, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-11T11:57:59.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 125, "under_odds": -165, "expected_strikeouts": 6.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.12, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.0, "skill_score": 52.6, "opportunity_score": 66.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.2, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 30.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3924, "model_under_probability": 0.6076, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4444, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6226, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4165, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5835, "edge_over": -0.052, "edge_under": -0.015, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.015, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.98, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.51, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "pitcher_id": 666157, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-11T11:58:17.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 5.22, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.22, "skill_score": 17.8, "opportunity_score": 47.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4165, "model_under_probability": 0.5835, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4425, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5575, "edge_over": -0.0597, "edge_under": -0.0165, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0165, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.009, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "pitcher_id": 676440, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-11T11:57:22.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -127, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.59, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.04, "skill_score": 15.6, "opportunity_score": 41.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 60.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5422, "model_under_probability": 0.4578, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5595, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5281, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4719, "edge_over": -0.0173, "edge_under": -0.0422, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0173, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.099, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.75, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "pitcher_id": 693645, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 320, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.61, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "skill_score": 42.3, "opportunity_score": 53.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2175, "model_under_probability": 0.7825, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2381, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0206, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0206, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.985, "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 132, "under_odds": -170, "expected_strikeouts": 6.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.12, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.0, "skill_score": 52.6, "opportunity_score": 66.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.2, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 30.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3924, "model_under_probability": 0.6076, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.431, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6296, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4064, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5936, "edge_over": -0.0386, "edge_under": -0.022, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.022, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.98, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.51, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-11T11:58:26.957Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 132, "under_odds": -170, "expected_strikeouts": 6.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.12, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.0, "skill_score": 52.6, "opportunity_score": 66.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.2, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 30.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3924, "model_under_probability": 0.6076, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.431, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6296, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4064, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5936, "edge_over": -0.0386, "edge_under": -0.022, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.022, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.98, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.51, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "pitcher_id": 642547, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-11T11:58:04.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -133, "under_odds": 104, "expected_strikeouts": 6.02, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.02, "skill_score": 24.4, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 34.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5321, "model_under_probability": 0.4679, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5708, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.538, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.462, "edge_over": -0.0387, "edge_under": -0.0223, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0223, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.99, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "pitcher_id": 680694, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -205, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.78, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.86, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.78, "skill_score": 15.2, "opportunity_score": 62.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6456, "model_under_probability": 0.3544, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6721, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0265, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0265, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.987, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13080.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.45, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "pitcher_id": 642547, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -130, "under_odds": 102, "expected_strikeouts": 6.02, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.02, "skill_score": 24.4, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 34.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5321, "model_under_probability": 0.4679, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5331, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4669, "edge_over": -0.0331, "edge_under": -0.0271, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0271, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.99, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "pitcher_id": 642547, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-11T11:58:26.957Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -130, "under_odds": 102, "expected_strikeouts": 6.02, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.02, "skill_score": 24.4, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 34.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5321, "model_under_probability": 0.4679, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5331, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4669, "edge_over": -0.0331, "edge_under": -0.0271, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0271, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.99, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "pitcher_id": 666157, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -148, "under_odds": 116, "expected_strikeouts": 5.22, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.22, "skill_score": 17.8, "opportunity_score": 47.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5691, "model_under_probability": 0.4309, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5968, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5631, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4369, "edge_over": -0.0277, "edge_under": -0.0321, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0277, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.009, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "pitcher_id": 666157, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-11T11:58:26.957Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -148, "under_odds": 116, "expected_strikeouts": 5.22, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.22, "skill_score": 17.8, "opportunity_score": 47.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5691, "model_under_probability": 0.4309, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5968, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5631, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4369, "edge_over": -0.0277, "edge_under": -0.0321, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0277, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.009, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "pitcher_id": 677958, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 240, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.24, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.24, "skill_score": 11.3, "opportunity_score": 21.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 89.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2664, "model_under_probability": 0.7336, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2941, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0277, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0277, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.005, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.43, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 86.0, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "pitcher_id": 642547, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-11T11:57:58.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -135, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 6.02, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.02, "skill_score": 24.4, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 34.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5321, "model_under_probability": 0.4679, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5347, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4653, "edge_over": -0.0424, "edge_under": -0.0321, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0321, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.99, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Miles Mikolas", "pitcher_id": 571945, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-11T11:58:31.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -135, "expected_strikeouts": 3.56, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.56, "skill_score": 10.3, "opportunity_score": 30.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 67.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4642, "model_under_probability": 0.5358, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4653, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5347, "edge_over": -0.0358, "edge_under": -0.0387, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0358, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.054, "aggregate_matchup_score": 20.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 32803.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.14, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Mahle", "pitcher_id": 641816, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 520, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.64, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.4, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.64, "skill_score": 14.6, "opportunity_score": 32.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 75.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1241, "model_under_probability": 0.8759, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1613, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0372, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0372, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.056, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9084.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 12.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Javier Assad", "pitcher_id": 665871, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 390, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.53, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.19, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.53, "skill_score": 5.2, "opportunity_score": 32.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 69.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1647, "model_under_probability": 0.8353, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2041, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0394, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0394, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.108, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15298.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.93, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Miles Mikolas", "pitcher_id": 571945, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 200, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.56, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.56, "skill_score": 10.3, "opportunity_score": 30.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 67.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2932, "model_under_probability": 0.7068, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0401, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0401, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.054, "aggregate_matchup_score": 20.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 32803.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.14, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Casey Mize", "pitcher_id": 663554, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 240, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.98, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.14, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.98, "skill_score": 55.3, "opportunity_score": 47.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 53.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2527, "model_under_probability": 0.7473, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2941, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0414, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0414, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.969, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18609.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.79, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 74.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "pitcher_id": 676440, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -310, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.59, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.04, "skill_score": 15.6, "opportunity_score": 41.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 60.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.702, "model_under_probability": 0.298, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7561, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0541, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0541, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.099, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.75, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "pitcher_id": 680694, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -520, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.78, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.86, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.78, "skill_score": 15.2, "opportunity_score": 62.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.784, "model_under_probability": 0.216, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8387, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0547, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0547, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.987, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13080.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.45, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "pitcher_id": 607536, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 520, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.7, "skill_score": 21.9, "opportunity_score": 31.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 64.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1023, "model_under_probability": 0.8977, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1613, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.059, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.059, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.008, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26728.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.95, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 12.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "pitcher_id": 680694, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -2200, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.78, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.86, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.78, "skill_score": 15.2, "opportunity_score": 62.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8937, "model_under_probability": 0.1063, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9565, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0628, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0628, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.987, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13080.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.45, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "pitcher_id": 642547, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -3500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.02, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.02, "skill_score": 24.4, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 34.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.9065, "model_under_probability": 0.0935, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9722, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0657, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0657, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.99, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "pitcher_id": 676440, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1000, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.59, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.04, "skill_score": 15.6, "opportunity_score": 41.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 60.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.8423, "model_under_probability": 0.1577, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9091, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0668, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0668, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.099, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.75, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "pitcher_id": 642547, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -295, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.02, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.02, "skill_score": 24.4, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 34.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6752, "model_under_probability": 0.3248, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7468, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0716, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0716, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.99, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "pitcher_id": 666157, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -390, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.22, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.22, "skill_score": 17.8, "opportunity_score": 47.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7241, "model_under_probability": 0.2759, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7959, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0718, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0718, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.009, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "pitcher_id": 693645, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 150, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.61, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "skill_score": 42.3, "opportunity_score": 53.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3262, "model_under_probability": 0.6738, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0738, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0738, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.985, "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "pitcher_id": 666157, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1400, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.22, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.22, "skill_score": 17.8, "opportunity_score": 47.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8566, "model_under_probability": 0.1434, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0767, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0767, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.009, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Mahle", "pitcher_id": 641816, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 250, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.64, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.4, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.64, "skill_score": 14.6, "opportunity_score": 32.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 75.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2083, "model_under_probability": 0.7917, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2857, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0774, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0774, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.056, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9084.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 12.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "pitcher_id": 669461, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 430, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.79, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.79, "skill_score": 40.3, "opportunity_score": 46.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.2, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 53.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1111, "model_under_probability": 0.8889, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1887, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0776, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0776, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 19.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.98, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "pitcher_id": 642547, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -770, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.02, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.02, "skill_score": 24.4, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 34.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8059, "model_under_probability": 0.1941, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8851, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0792, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0792, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.99, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "pitcher_id": 702070, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 460, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.0, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 16.0, "opportunity_score": 39.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 57.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.0959, "model_under_probability": 0.9041, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1786, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0827, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0827, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.08, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10820.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Javier Assad", "pitcher_id": 665871, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 164, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.53, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.19, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.53, "skill_score": 5.2, "opportunity_score": 32.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 69.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2879, "model_under_probability": 0.7121, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3788, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0909, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0909, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.108, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15298.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.93, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "pitcher_id": 693645, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -4000, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.61, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "skill_score": 42.3, "opportunity_score": 53.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8778, "model_under_probability": 0.1222, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9756, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0978, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0978, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.985, "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Miles Mikolas", "pitcher_id": 571945, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -330, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.56, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.56, "skill_score": 10.3, "opportunity_score": 30.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 67.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.662, "model_under_probability": 0.338, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7674, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1054, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1054, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.054, "aggregate_matchup_score": 20.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 32803.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.14, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "pitcher_id": 607536, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 240, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.7, "skill_score": 21.9, "opportunity_score": 31.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 64.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1877, "model_under_probability": 0.8123, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2941, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1064, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1064, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.008, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26728.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.95, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 12.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "pitcher_id": 677958, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -670, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.24, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.24, "skill_score": 11.3, "opportunity_score": 21.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 89.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.7603, "model_under_probability": 0.2397, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8701, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1098, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1098, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.005, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.43, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 86.0, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "pitcher_id": 677958, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -235, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.24, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.24, "skill_score": 11.3, "opportunity_score": 21.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 89.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5857, "model_under_probability": 0.4143, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7015, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1158, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1158, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.005, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.43, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 86.0, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -184, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.12, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.0, "skill_score": 52.6, "opportunity_score": 66.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.2, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 30.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.5293, "model_under_probability": 0.4707, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6479, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1186, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1186, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.98, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.51, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Casey Mize", "pitcher_id": 663554, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -2500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.98, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.14, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.98, "skill_score": 55.3, "opportunity_score": 47.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 53.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8372, "model_under_probability": 0.1628, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9615, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1243, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1243, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.969, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18609.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.79, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 74.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1400, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.12, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.0, "skill_score": 52.6, "opportunity_score": 66.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.2, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 30.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.8042, "model_under_probability": 0.1958, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1291, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1291, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.98, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.51, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "pitcher_id": 669461, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 200, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.79, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.79, "skill_score": 40.3, "opportunity_score": 46.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.2, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 53.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2003, "model_under_probability": 0.7997, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.133, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.133, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 19.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.98, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "pitcher_id": 702070, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 230, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.0, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 16.0, "opportunity_score": 39.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 57.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.169, "model_under_probability": 0.831, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.303, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.134, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.134, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.08, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10820.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -430, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.12, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.0, "skill_score": 52.6, "opportunity_score": 66.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.2, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 30.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.6728, "model_under_probability": 0.3272, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8113, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1385, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1385, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.98, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.51, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Javier Assad", "pitcher_id": 665871, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -390, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.53, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.19, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.53, "skill_score": 5.2, "opportunity_score": 32.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 69.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.657, "model_under_probability": 0.343, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7959, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1389, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1389, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.108, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15298.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.93, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Casey Mize", "pitcher_id": 663554, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -210, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.98, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.14, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.98, "skill_score": 55.3, "opportunity_score": 47.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 53.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5331, "model_under_probability": 0.4669, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6774, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1443, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1443, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.969, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18609.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.79, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 74.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "pitcher_id": 693645, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -950, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.61, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "skill_score": 42.3, "opportunity_score": 53.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7578, "model_under_probability": 0.2422, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9048, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.147, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.147, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.985, "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Casey Mize", "pitcher_id": 663554, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -530, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.98, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.14, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.98, "skill_score": 55.3, "opportunity_score": 47.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 53.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6943, "model_under_probability": 0.3057, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8413, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.147, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.147, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.969, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18609.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.79, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 74.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Mahle", "pitcher_id": 641816, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -2000, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.64, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.4, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.64, "skill_score": 14.6, "opportunity_score": 32.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 75.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.8053, "model_under_probability": 0.1947, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9524, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1471, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1471, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.056, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9084.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 12.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "pitcher_id": 693645, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -340, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.61, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "skill_score": 42.3, "opportunity_score": 53.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6114, "model_under_probability": 0.3886, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7727, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1613, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1613, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.985, "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "pitcher_id": 657746, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 152, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.41, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.04, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.41, "skill_score": 65.6, "opportunity_score": 61.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 47.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2256, "model_under_probability": 0.7744, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3968, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1712, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1712, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.072, "aggregate_matchup_score": 80.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29998.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 91.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "pitcher_id": 702070, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1800, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.0, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 16.0, "opportunity_score": 39.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 57.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.77, "model_under_probability": 0.23, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9474, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1774, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1774, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.08, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10820.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Mahle", "pitcher_id": 641816, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -194, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.64, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.4, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.64, "skill_score": 14.6, "opportunity_score": 32.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 75.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4791, "model_under_probability": 0.5209, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6599, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1808, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1808, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.056, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9084.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 12.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "pitcher_id": 607536, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -670, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.7, "skill_score": 21.9, "opportunity_score": 31.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 64.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6847, "model_under_probability": 0.3153, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8701, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1854, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1854, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.008, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26728.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.95, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 12.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Mahle", "pitcher_id": 641816, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.64, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.4, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.64, "skill_score": 14.6, "opportunity_score": 32.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 75.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6476, "model_under_probability": 0.3524, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1857, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1857, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.056, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9084.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 12.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "pitcher_id": 669461, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -770, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.79, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.79, "skill_score": 40.3, "opportunity_score": 46.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.2, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 53.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6986, "model_under_probability": 0.3014, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8851, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1865, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1865, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 19.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.98, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "pitcher_id": 607536, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -225, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.7, "skill_score": 21.9, "opportunity_score": 31.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 64.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4908, "model_under_probability": 0.5092, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6923, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2015, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2015, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.008, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26728.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.95, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 12.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "pitcher_id": 669461, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -265, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.79, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.79, "skill_score": 40.3, "opportunity_score": 46.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.2, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 53.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5075, "model_under_probability": 0.4925, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.726, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2185, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2185, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 19.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.98, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "pitcher_id": 657746, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1800, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.41, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.04, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.41, "skill_score": 65.6, "opportunity_score": 61.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 47.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.7189, "model_under_probability": 0.2811, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9474, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2285, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2285, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.072, "aggregate_matchup_score": 80.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29998.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 91.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "pitcher_id": 702070, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.0, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 16.0, "opportunity_score": 39.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 57.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5987, "model_under_probability": 0.4013, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2346, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2346, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.08, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10820.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "pitcher_id": 702070, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -205, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.0, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 16.0, "opportunity_score": 39.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 57.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4257, "model_under_probability": 0.5743, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6721, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2464, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2464, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.08, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10820.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "pitcher_id": 657746, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -620, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.41, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.04, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.41, "skill_score": 65.6, "opportunity_score": 61.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 47.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.5835, "model_under_probability": 0.4165, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8611, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2776, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2776, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.072, "aggregate_matchup_score": 80.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29998.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 91.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "pitcher_id": 657746, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -280, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.41, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.04, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.41, "skill_score": 65.6, "opportunity_score": 61.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 54.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 47.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4478, "model_under_probability": 0.5522, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7368, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.289, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.289, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.072, "aggregate_matchup_score": 80.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29998.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 91.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [ { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Sproat", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Sproat", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Sproat", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Sproat", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Sproat", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Sproat", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Sproat", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Sproat", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 8.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Bubba Chandler", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Bubba Chandler", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Bubba Chandler", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Bubba Chandler", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Bubba Chandler", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Bubba Chandler", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Bubba Chandler", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristopher Sanchez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristopher Sanchez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristopher Sanchez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristopher Sanchez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristopher Sanchez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristopher Sanchez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 8.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristopher Sanchez 10+ Strikeouts", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 9.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Erick Fedde", "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "OAK", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Erick Fedde", "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "OAK", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Eury Perez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Eury Perez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Eury Perez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Eury Perez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Eury Perez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Eury Perez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 8.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gage Jump", "team_abbr": "OAK", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gage Jump", "team_abbr": "OAK", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gage Jump", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gage Jump", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gage Jump", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gage Jump", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gage Jump", "team_abbr": "OAK", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gage Jump", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gage Jump", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Griffin Jax", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Griffin Jax", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Griffin Jax", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Griffin Jax", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Griffin Jax", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Griffin Jax", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Griffin Jax", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Griffin Jax", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Griffin Jax", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan 10+ Strikeouts", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 9.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan 11+ Strikeouts", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 10.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Reynaldo Lopez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Reynaldo Lopez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Reynaldo Lopez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Reynaldo Lopez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Reynaldo L\u00f3pez", "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Reynaldo L\u00f3pez", "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Reynaldo L\u00f3pez", "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Johnson", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Johnson", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Johnson", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Johnson", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Johnson", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Drohan", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Drohan", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Drohan", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Drohan", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Drohan", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Drohan", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Drohan", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Drohan", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trey Yesavage", "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trey Yesavage", "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trey Yesavage", "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." } ] }