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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-07-09 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-07-09
121 matched props 26 unmatched
Newer: 2026-07-10 Older: 2026-07-08

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 121
Grouped Pitchers 19
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 26
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-07-17 2026-07-16 2026-07-15 2026-07-14 2026-07-13 2026-07-12 2026-07-11 2026-07-10

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-07-09 | Raw sportsbook rows: 121 | Grouped pitcher entries: 19 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-07-09/strikeout_edges_2026-07-09.json
Bryce Miller headshot

Bryce Miller
SEA vs MIA | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.40
Strongest Gap Under +26.68%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -162 / U +126
Over gap -32.76% / Under gap +26.68%
Under +26.68%
FanDuel
5.5
O -162 / U +126
Over gap -32.76% / Under gap +26.68%
Under +26.68%
DraftKings
5.5
O -159 / U +124
Over gap -32.32% / Under gap +26.29%
Under +26.29%
BetMGM
5.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -31.71% / Under gap +24.42%
Under +24.42%
FanDuel
8.5
O +560 / U --
Over gap -9.60% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +280 / U --
Over gap -16.06% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +132 / U --
Over gap -25.24% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1200 / U --
Over gap -31.17% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -400 / U --
Over gap -36.08% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 29.1% | U 70.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.4
Drew Rasmussen headshot

Drew Rasmussen
TB vs NYY | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.40
Strongest Gap Under +22.14%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O +117 / U -150
Over gap -28.22% / Under gap +22.14%
Under +22.14%
BetMGM
6.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap -28.65% / Under gap +21.36%
Under +21.36%
FanDuel
6.5
O +124 / U -158
Over gap -26.78% / Under gap +20.90%
Under +20.90%
FanDuel
6.5
O +124 / U -158
Over gap -26.78% / Under gap +20.90%
Under +20.90%
FanDuel
8.5
O +500 / U --
Over gap -11.12% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +255 / U --
Over gap -17.91% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1400 / U --
Over gap -32.19% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -186 / U --
Over gap -35.96% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -430 / U --
Over gap -37.21% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 17.9% | U 82.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 47.4
Nathan Eovaldi headshot

Nathan Eovaldi
TEX vs LAA | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 5.92
Strongest Gap Under +17.22%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O -160 / U +124
Over gap -23.40% / Under gap +17.22%
Under +17.22%
DraftKings
6.5
O -153 / U +119
Over gap -22.33% / Under gap +16.20%
Under +16.20%
BetMGM
7.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap -19.99% / Under gap +12.70%
Under +12.70%
Model O 38.1% | U 61.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 66.4
Jesús Luzardo headshot

Jesús Luzardo
PHI vs CIN | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 6.32
Strongest Gap Under +13.99%
Best Line 7.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
7.5
O -110 / U -120
Over gap -20.92% / Under gap +13.99%
Under +13.99%
DraftKings
7.5
O -103 / U -123
Over gap -19.28% / Under gap +13.38%
Under +13.38%
FanDuel
7.5
O -102 / U -125
Over gap -19.04% / Under gap +12.98%
Under +12.98%
Model O 31.5% | U 68.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 75.5
Mitch Keller headshot

Mitch Keller
PIT vs ATL | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 4.59
Strongest Gap Over +10.25%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +360 / U --
Over gap +10.25% / Under gap --
Over +10.25%
FanDuel
4.5
O +162 / U --
Over gap +8.92% / Under gap --
Over +8.92%
BetMGM
3.5
O -130 / U -105
Over gap +7.51% / Under gap -15.25%
Over +7.51%
FanDuel
3.5
O -150 / U +118
Over gap +4.03% / Under gap -9.90%
Over +4.03%
FanDuel
3.5
O -150 / U +118
Over gap +4.03% / Under gap -9.90%
Over +4.03%
DraftKings
3.5
O -154 / U +121
Over gap +3.40% / Under gap -9.28%
Over +3.40%
FanDuel
2.5
O -440 / U --
Over gap -1.47% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 32.0% | U 68.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 41.3
Gavin Williams headshot

Gavin Williams
CLE vs MIN | 10 books
Strong
Adj K 5.50
Strongest Gap Under +9.93%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -162 / U +126
Over gap -16.01% / Under gap +9.93%
Under +9.93%
FanDuel
5.5
O -162 / U +126
Over gap -16.01% / Under gap +9.93%
Under +9.93%
DraftKings
6.5
O +125 / U -160
Over gap -12.09% / Under gap +6.11%
Under +6.11%
BetMGM
5.5
O -145 / U +105
Over gap -13.36% / Under gap +5.40%
Under +5.40%
FanDuel
8.5
O +560 / U --
Over gap -1.60% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +285 / U --
Over gap -4.46% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -4500 / U --
Over gap -10.18% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +134 / U --
Over gap -10.39% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1000 / U --
Over gap -15.34% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -390 / U --
Over gap -18.72% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 45.8% | U 54.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 51.0
Brady Singer headshot

Brady Singer
CIN vs PHI | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.68
Strongest Gap Under +8.34%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -170 / U +132
Over gap -14.40% / Under gap +8.34%
Under +8.34%
FanDuel
4.5
O -166 / U +130
Over gap -13.85% / Under gap +7.96%
Under +7.96%
DraftKings
5.5
O +123 / U -157
Over gap -11.47% / Under gap +5.54%
Under +5.54%
BetMGM
5.5
O +120 / U -160
Over gap -12.08% / Under gap +5.09%
Under +5.09%
FanDuel
7.5
O +600 / U --
Over gap -1.50% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +300 / U --
Over gap -3.66% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +138 / U --
Over gap -8.65% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1400 / U --
Over gap -12.40% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -430 / U --
Over gap -15.79% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 48.6% | U 51.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 46.2
Bailey Ober headshot

Bailey Ober
MIN vs CLE | 5 books
Strong
Adj K 4.53
Strongest Gap Over +8.33%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +340 / U --
Over gap +8.33% / Under gap --
Over +8.33%
FanDuel
6.5
O +790 / U --
Over gap +8.21% / Under gap --
Over +8.21%
FanDuel
4.5
O +152 / U --
Over gap +6.42% / Under gap --
Over +6.42%
FanDuel
3.5
O -158 / U --
Over gap +1.89% / Under gap --
Over +1.89%
FanDuel
2.5
O -430 / U --
Over gap -1.75% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 31.1% | U 68.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 56.7
David Peterson headshot

David Peterson
CHC vs BAL | 5 books
Strong
Adj K 4.73
Strongest Gap Over +8.29%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +630 / U --
Over gap +8.29% / Under gap --
Over +8.29%
FanDuel
5.5
O +285 / U --
Over gap +8.17% / Under gap --
Over +8.17%
FanDuel
4.5
O +128 / U -164
Over gap +5.51% / Under gap -11.49%
Over +5.51%
FanDuel
3.5
O -194 / U --
Over gap +0.06% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -590 / U --
Over gap -4.08% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 22.0% | U 78.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 40.0
Andre Pallante headshot

Andre Pallante
STL vs MIL | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 3.48
Strongest Gap Under +7.05%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -138 / U +108
Over gap -13.11% / Under gap +7.05%
Under +7.05%
FanDuel
3.5
O -138 / U +108
Over gap -13.11% / Under gap +7.05%
Under +7.05%
DraftKings
3.5
O -135 / U +106
Over gap -12.58% / Under gap +6.59%
Under +6.59%
BetMGM
3.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -12.58% / Under gap +5.13%
Under +5.13%
FanDuel
5.5
O +400 / U --
Over gap -4.19% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +182 / U --
Over gap -7.54% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -390 / U --
Over gap -14.74% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 44.9% | U 55.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 26.8
Framber Valdez headshot

Framber Valdez
DET vs ATH | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.61
Strongest Gap Over +6.67%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +520 / U --
Over gap +6.67% / Under gap --
Over +6.67%
FanDuel
6.5
O +240 / U --
Over gap +4.45% / Under gap --
Over +4.45%
FanDuel
5.5
O +114 / U -146
Over gap +0.70% / Under gap -6.78%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +114 / U -146
Over gap +0.70% / Under gap -6.78%
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O +113 / U -144
Over gap +0.48% / Under gap -6.45%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -175 / U +130
Over gap -1.29% / Under gap -5.83%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -210 / U --
Over gap -5.39% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -530 / U --
Over gap -7.41% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2500 / U --
Over gap -7.80% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 22.8% | U 77.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 64.8
Bryce Elder headshot

Bryce Elder
ATL vs PIT | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 4.88
Strongest Gap Over +6.40%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +470 / U --
Over gap +6.40% / Under gap --
Over +6.40%
FanDuel
5.5
O +220 / U --
Over gap +5.21% / Under gap --
Over +5.21%
BetMGM
4.5
O +105 / U -140
Over gap +2.97% / Under gap -10.08%
Over +2.97%
FanDuel
4.5
O +100 / U -128
Over gap +1.75% / Under gap -7.89%
Over +1.75%
FanDuel
4.5
O +100 / U -128
Over gap +1.75% / Under gap -7.89%
Over +1.75%
DraftKings
4.5
O -105 / U -122
Over gap +0.53% / Under gap -6.70%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -245 / U --
Over gap -2.90% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -720 / U --
Over gap -4.96% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 23.9% | U 76.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 38.3
Sean Manaea headshot

Sean Manaea
NYM vs KC | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.84
Strongest Gap Under +6.14%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -172 / U +134
Over gap -12.12% / Under gap +6.14%
Under +6.14%
FanDuel
4.5
O -172 / U +134
Over gap -12.12% / Under gap +6.14%
Under +6.14%
DraftKings
4.5
O -161 / U +126
Over gap -10.57% / Under gap +4.63%
Under +4.63%
BetMGM
4.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap -10.42% / Under gap +3.43%
Under +3.43%
FanDuel
7.5
O +600 / U --
Over gap +0.06% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +285 / U --
Over gap -2.55% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +134 / U --
Over gap -6.90% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1600 / U --
Over gap -11.65% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -430 / U --
Over gap -13.56% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 51.1% | U 48.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 53.0
Michael Wacha headshot

Michael Wacha
KC vs NYM | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 4.57
Strongest Gap Under +6.07%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -143 / U +112
Over gap -12.09% / Under gap +6.07%
Under +6.07%
FanDuel
4.5
O -138 / U +108
Over gap -11.22% / Under gap +5.16%
Under +5.16%
FanDuel
4.5
O -138 / U +108
Over gap -11.22% / Under gap +5.16%
Under +5.16%
BetMGM
4.5
O -130 / U -105
Over gap -9.76% / Under gap +2.02%
Under +2.02%
FanDuel
6.5
O +360 / U --
Over gap -1.79% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +164 / U --
Over gap -6.20% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1100 / U --
Over gap -11.87% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -340 / U --
Over gap -13.54% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 46.8% | U 53.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 33.6
Ryan Feltner headshot

Ryan Feltner
COL vs SF | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 3.80
Strongest Gap Under +5.21%
Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
3.5
O -163 / U +128
Over gap -11.05% / Under gap +5.21%
Under +5.21%
BetMGM
3.5
O -165 / U +125
Over gap -11.33% / Under gap +4.63%
Under +4.63%
FanDuel
3.5
O -158 / U +124
Over gap -10.31% / Under gap +4.43%
Under +4.43%
Model O 50.9% | U 49.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 42.6
Janson Junk headshot

Janson Junk
MIA vs SEA | 4 books
Play
Adj K 3.55
Strongest Gap Under +3.27%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -125 / U -102
Over gap -9.33% / Under gap +3.27%
Under +3.27%
FanDuel
5.5
O +440 / U --
Over gap -1.79% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +200 / U --
Over gap -4.19% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -330 / U --
Over gap -10.70% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 46.2% | U 53.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 22.0
Griffin Canning headshot

Griffin Canning
SD vs AZ | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 3.96
Strongest Gap No Play +1.14%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -156 / U +122
Over gap -7.13% / Under gap +1.14%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O +132 / U -169
Over gap -6.76% / Under gap +0.83%
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap -7.73% / Under gap +0.74%
No Play
Model O 53.8% | U 46.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 23.9
Trevor Rogers headshot

Trevor Rogers
BAL vs CHC | 7 books
No Play
Adj K 4.66
Strongest Gap No Play +1.09%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +400 / U --
Over gap +1.09% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -122 / U -104
Over gap -6.71% / Under gap +0.78%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -122 / U -104
Over gap -6.71% / Under gap +0.78%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -118 / U -108
Over gap -5.89% / Under gap -0.16%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +196 / U --
Over gap -0.72% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -295 / U --
Over gap -9.63% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -950 / U --
Over gap -9.75% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 21.1% | U 78.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 36.9
Merrill Kelly headshot

Merrill Kelly
AZ vs SD | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 4.35
Strongest Gap No Play -1.19%
Best Line 3.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
3.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap -1.19% / Under gap -5.80%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O +124 / U -159
Over gap -1.56% / Under gap -4.47%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -178 / U +138
Over gap -3.68% / Under gap -2.37%
No Play
Model O 60.4% | U 39.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 44.2

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.