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Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-07-08 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-07-08
98 matched props 93 unmatched
Newer: 2026-07-09 Older: 2026-07-07

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 98
Grouped Pitchers 14
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 93
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-07-17 2026-07-16 2026-07-15 2026-07-14 2026-07-13 2026-07-12 2026-07-11 2026-07-10

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-07-08 | Raw sportsbook rows: 98 | Grouped pitcher entries: 14 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-07-08/strikeout_edges_2026-07-08.json
MacKenzie Gore headshot

MacKenzie Gore
TEX vs LAA | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 6.20
Strongest Gap Under +11.53%
Best Line 6.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
6.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -18.82% / Under gap +11.53%
Under +11.53%
DraftKings
6.5
O -138 / U +108
Over gap -16.02% / Under gap +9.96%
Under +9.96%
FanDuel
6.5
O -122 / U -104
Over gap -12.99% / Under gap +7.06%
Under +7.06%
Model O 42.0% | U 58.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 65.2
Davis Martin headshot

Davis Martin
CWS vs BOS | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 4.27
Strongest Gap Under +10.90%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -142 / U +111
Over gap -16.97% / Under gap +10.90%
Under +10.90%
BetMGM
4.5
O -140 / U +105
Over gap -16.62% / Under gap +9.51%
Under +9.51%
FanDuel
4.5
O -122 / U -104
Over gap -13.24% / Under gap +7.31%
Under +7.31%
FanDuel
4.5
O -122 / U -104
Over gap -13.24% / Under gap +7.31%
Under +7.31%
FanDuel
6.5
O +400 / U --
Over gap -3.69% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +186 / U --
Over gap -7.88% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1000 / U --
Over gap -14.51% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -310 / U --
Over gap -16.55% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 41.7% | U 58.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 26.9
Michael McGreevy headshot

Michael McGreevy
STL vs MIL | 7 books
Strong
Adj K 3.17
Strongest Gap Under +9.84%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -120 / U -106
Over gap -15.85% / Under gap +9.84%
Under +9.84%
FanDuel
3.5
O -120 / U -106
Over gap -15.85% / Under gap +9.84%
Under +9.84%
DraftKings
3.5
O -118 / U -108
Over gap -15.43% / Under gap +9.38%
Under +9.38%
BetMGM
3.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap -14.79% / Under gap +7.81%
Under +7.81%
FanDuel
5.5
O +480 / U --
Over gap -5.27% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +215 / U --
Over gap -9.14% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -320 / U --
Over gap -17.01% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 38.7% | U 61.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 24.9
Dylan Cease headshot

Dylan Cease
TOR vs SF | 6 books
Strong
Adj K 6.54
Strongest Gap Under +9.25%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O -154 / U +126
Over gap -14.13% / Under gap +9.25%
Under +9.25%
FanDuel
8.5
O +255 / U --
Over gap -4.20% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +126 / U --
Over gap -10.04% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -4000 / U --
Over gap -12.91% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -1000 / U --
Over gap -17.67% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -360 / U --
Over gap -18.28% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 46.5% | U 53.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 72.2
Logan Webb headshot

Logan Webb
SF vs TOR | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.57
Strongest Gap Over +8.63%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +630 / U --
Over gap +8.63% / Under gap --
Over +8.63%
FanDuel
6.5
O +300 / U --
Over gap +8.31% / Under gap --
Over +8.31%
FanDuel
5.5
O +138 / U --
Over gap +4.83% / Under gap --
Over +4.83%
BetMGM
4.5
O -145 / U +105
Over gap +2.64% / Under gap -10.60%
Over +2.64%
DraftKings
5.5
O +117 / U -149
Over gap +0.77% / Under gap -6.69%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -170 / U +132
Over gap -1.14% / Under gap -4.92%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -170 / U +132
Over gap -1.14% / Under gap -4.92%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -430 / U --
Over gap -4.83% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1600 / U --
Over gap -6.02% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 22.3% | U 77.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.6
Kyle Harrison headshot

Kyle Harrison
MIL vs STL | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.78
Strongest Gap Under +7.46%
Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
5.5
O +107 / U -136
Over gap -13.40% / Under gap +7.46%
Under +7.46%
FanDuel
5.5
O +110 / U -140
Over gap -12.71% / Under gap +6.76%
Under +6.76%
FanDuel
5.5
O +110 / U -140
Over gap -12.71% / Under gap +6.76%
Under +6.76%
BetMGM
4.5
O -160 / U +120
Over gap -11.37% / Under gap +4.38%
Under +4.38%
FanDuel
7.5
O +480 / U --
Over gap -3.48% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +230 / U --
Over gap -7.67% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2500 / U --
Over gap -14.24% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -530 / U --
Over gap -17.38% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -215 / U --
Over gap -18.08% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 34.9% | U 65.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 45.1
Jeffrey Springs headshot

Jeffrey Springs
ATH vs DET | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 4.37
Strongest Gap Under +6.58%
Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
4.5
O -127 / U +100
Over gap -12.53% / Under gap +6.58%
Under +6.58%
FanDuel
4.5
O -115 / U -111
Over gap -10.07% / Under gap +3.97%
Under +3.97%
FanDuel
4.5
O -115 / U -111
Over gap -10.07% / Under gap +3.97%
Under +3.97%
BetMGM
4.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -7.80% / Under gap +1.02%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +420 / U --
Over gap -1.74% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +200 / U --
Over gap -4.72% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -850 / U --
Over gap -11.88% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -290 / U --
Over gap -13.69% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 43.4% | U 56.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 37.8
Michael King headshot

Michael King
SD vs AZ | 3 books
Play
Adj K 5.08
Strongest Gap Over +4.83%
Best Line 4.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
4.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap +4.83% / Under gap -12.28%
Over +4.83%
FanDuel
4.5
O -118 / U -108
Over gap +0.70% / Under gap -6.75%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -119 / U -107
Over gap +0.49% / Under gap -6.52%
No Play
Model O 54.8% | U 45.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 53.7
George Kirby headshot

George Kirby
SEA vs MIA | 9 books
Play
Adj K 5.45
Strongest Gap Over +4.81%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +520 / U --
Over gap +4.81% / Under gap --
Over +4.81%
FanDuel
6.5
O +255 / U --
Over gap +3.49% / Under gap --
Over +3.49%
DraftKings
5.5
O +126 / U -162
Over gap +0.83% / Under gap -6.91%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +118 / U -150
Over gap -0.79% / Under gap -5.08%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +118 / U -150
Over gap -0.79% / Under gap -5.08%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap -1.43% / Under gap -5.86%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -192 / U --
Over gap -5.57% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1800 / U --
Over gap -7.42% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -500 / U --
Over gap -8.30% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 20.9% | U 79.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 66.2
Dean Kremer headshot

Dean Kremer
BAL vs CHC | 6 books
Play
Adj K 4.76
Strongest Gap Under +4.45%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +122 / U -156
Over gap -10.44% / Under gap +4.45%
Under +4.45%
FanDuel
7.5
O +500 / U --
Over gap -3.11% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +240 / U --
Over gap -7.04% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2200 / U --
Over gap -13.93% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -205 / U --
Over gap -17.36% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -520 / U --
Over gap -17.40% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 34.6% | U 65.4% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 39.2
Grant Holmes headshot

Grant Holmes
ATL vs PIT | 7 books
Play
Adj K 4.82
Strongest Gap Over +3.92%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +420 / U --
Over gap +3.92% / Under gap --
Over +3.92%
FanDuel
5.5
O +190 / U --
Over gap +1.05% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -125 / U -102
Over gap -4.75% / Under gap -1.31%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -125 / U -102
Over gap -4.75% / Under gap -1.31%
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -118 / U -106
Over gap -3.32% / Under gap -2.27%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -310 / U --
Over gap -8.31% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1000 / U --
Over gap -8.63% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 23.2% | U 76.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 50.0
Colin Rea headshot

Colin Rea
CHC vs BAL | 8 books
Play
Adj K 4.21
Strongest Gap Under +3.18%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O +100 / U -128
Over gap -9.32% / Under gap +3.18%
Under +3.18%
FanDuel
4.5
O +100 / U -128
Over gap -9.32% / Under gap +3.18%
Under +3.18%
DraftKings
4.5
O +102 / U -130
Over gap -8.82% / Under gap +2.80%
Under +2.80%
BetMGM
4.5
O +110 / U -150
Over gap -6.94% / Under gap -0.68%
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +430 / U --
Over gap -3.26% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +210 / U --
Over gap -6.08% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -800 / U --
Over gap -13.23% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -265 / U --
Over gap -14.52% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 40.7% | U 59.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 35.4
Spencer Arrighetti headshot

Spencer Arrighetti
HOU vs WSH | 8 books
Lean
Adj K 4.87
Strongest Gap Over +2.53%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +370 / U --
Over gap +2.53% / Under gap --
Over +2.53%
FanDuel
5.5
O +176 / U --
Over gap +0.07% / Under gap --
No Play
DraftKings
4.5
O -133 / U +105
Over gap -5.48% / Under gap -0.38%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -130 / U +102
Over gap -4.92% / Under gap -1.10%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -130 / U +102
Over gap -4.92% / Under gap -1.10%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -5.85% / Under gap -1.60%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1000 / U --
Over gap -8.17% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -330 / U --
Over gap -8.76% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 23.8% | U 76.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 47.8
Slade Cecconi headshot

Slade Cecconi
CLE vs MIN | 7 books
Lean
Adj K 4.03
Strongest Gap Over +1.76%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +360 / U --
Over gap +1.76% / Under gap --
Over +1.76%
DraftKings
3.5
O -166 / U +130
Over gap -7.38% / Under gap +1.49%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -162 / U +126
Over gap -6.80% / Under gap +0.72%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -162 / U +126
Over gap -6.80% / Under gap +0.72%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +158 / U --
Over gap -1.20% / Under gap --
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -5.75% / Under gap -1.54%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -430 / U --
Over gap -7.82% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 23.5% | U 76.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 37.1

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.