{ "date": "2026-07-02", "generated_at": "2026-07-02T08:04:02.676956", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "projection_date": "2026-07-02", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 110, "matched_count": 70, "unmatched_count": 40 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 70, "grouped_pitcher_count": 12, "sportsbook_count": 3 }, "edge_count": 70, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Bryce Miller", "pitcher_id": 682243, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-02T11:58:42.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -155, "under_odds": 115, "expected_strikeouts": 4.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.43, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.91, "skill_score": 59.6, "opportunity_score": 39.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 76.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2434, "model_under_probability": 0.7566, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5665, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4335, "edge_over": -0.3644, "edge_under": 0.2915, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2915, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.48, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.108, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24988.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.71, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 58.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "pitcher_id": 694819, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 9.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 108, "under_odds": -138, "expected_strikeouts": 6.23, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.36, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.23, "skill_score": 84.8, "opportunity_score": 54.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.3, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 41.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.1341, "model_under_probability": 0.8659, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5798, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4533, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5467, "edge_over": -0.3467, "edge_under": 0.2861, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2861, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.0, "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.95, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 94.3, "wind_speed_mph": 14.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "pitcher_id": 694819, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-02T11:58:51.045Z", "line": 9.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 108, "under_odds": -138, "expected_strikeouts": 6.23, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.36, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.23, "skill_score": 84.8, "opportunity_score": 54.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.3, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 41.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.1341, "model_under_probability": 0.8659, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5798, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4533, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5467, "edge_over": -0.3467, "edge_under": 0.2861, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2861, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.0, "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.95, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 94.3, "wind_speed_mph": 14.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "pitcher_id": 694819, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-02T11:58:10.000Z", "line": 9.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 109, "under_odds": -139, "expected_strikeouts": 6.23, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.36, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.23, "skill_score": 84.8, "opportunity_score": 54.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.3, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 41.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.1341, "model_under_probability": 0.8659, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4785, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5816, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4514, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5486, "edge_over": -0.3444, "edge_under": 0.2843, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2843, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.0, "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.95, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 94.3, "wind_speed_mph": 14.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "pitcher_id": 694819, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-02T11:58:10.000Z", "line": 9.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 105, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 6.23, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.36, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.23, "skill_score": 84.8, "opportunity_score": 54.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.3, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 41.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.1341, "model_under_probability": 0.8659, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4554, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5446, "edge_over": -0.3537, "edge_under": 0.2826, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2826, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.0, "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.95, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 94.3, "wind_speed_mph": 14.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryce Miller", "pitcher_id": 682243, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-02T11:58:51.045Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -132, "under_odds": 104, "expected_strikeouts": 4.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.43, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.91, "skill_score": 59.6, "opportunity_score": 39.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 76.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2434, "model_under_probability": 0.7566, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5372, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4628, "edge_over": -0.3256, "edge_under": 0.2664, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2664, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.48, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.108, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24988.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.71, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 58.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryce Miller", "pitcher_id": 682243, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-02T11:57:54.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -123, "under_odds": -104, "expected_strikeouts": 4.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.43, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.91, "skill_score": 59.6, "opportunity_score": 39.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 76.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2434, "model_under_probability": 0.7566, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5516, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5197, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4803, "edge_over": -0.3082, "edge_under": 0.2468, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2468, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.48, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.108, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24988.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.71, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 58.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Hurston Waldrep", "pitcher_id": 694462, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 240, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.82, "skill_score": 31.8, "opportunity_score": 52.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 47.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5081, "model_under_probability": 0.4919, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2941, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.214, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.214, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.052, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4587.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.24, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Hurston Waldrep", "pitcher_id": 694462, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 4.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.82, "skill_score": 31.8, "opportunity_score": 52.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 47.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.673, "model_under_probability": 0.327, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4495, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5505, "edge_over": 0.1968, "edge_under": -0.2563, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1968, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.052, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4587.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.24, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Hurston Waldrep", "pitcher_id": 694462, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 520, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.82, "skill_score": 31.8, "opportunity_score": 52.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 47.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3553, "model_under_probability": 0.6447, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1613, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.194, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.194, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.052, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4587.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.24, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "pitcher_id": 663436, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-02T11:59:02.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -155, "under_odds": 115, "expected_strikeouts": 3.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.91, "skill_score": 43.5, "opportunity_score": 54.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 31.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3546, "model_under_probability": 0.6454, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5665, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4335, "edge_over": -0.2532, "edge_under": 0.1803, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1803, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.982, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.91, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "pitcher_id": 663436, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-02T11:58:16.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -137, "under_odds": 107, "expected_strikeouts": 3.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.91, "skill_score": 43.5, "opportunity_score": 54.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 31.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3546, "model_under_probability": 0.6454, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5781, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4831, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5448, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4552, "edge_over": -0.2235, "edge_under": 0.1623, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1623, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.982, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.91, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "pitcher_id": 663436, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -136, "under_odds": 106, "expected_strikeouts": 3.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.91, "skill_score": 43.5, "opportunity_score": 54.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 31.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3546, "model_under_probability": 0.6454, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5428, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4572, "edge_over": -0.2217, "edge_under": 0.16, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.16, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.982, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.91, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "pitcher_id": 663436, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-02T11:58:51.045Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -136, "under_odds": 106, "expected_strikeouts": 3.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.91, "skill_score": 43.5, "opportunity_score": 54.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 31.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3546, "model_under_probability": 0.6454, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5428, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4572, "edge_over": -0.2217, "edge_under": 0.16, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.16, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.982, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.91, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "pitcher_id": 543135, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-02T11:59:10.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -140, "under_odds": 105, "expected_strikeouts": 5.73, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.75, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.73, "skill_score": 70.1, "opportunity_score": 80.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 12.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3552, "model_under_probability": 0.6448, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5446, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4554, "edge_over": -0.2281, "edge_under": 0.157, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.157, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.996, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26779.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.59, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Hurston Waldrep", "pitcher_id": 694462, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -215, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.82, "skill_score": 31.8, "opportunity_score": 52.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 47.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8228, "model_under_probability": 0.1772, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6825, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.1403, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1403, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.052, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4587.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.24, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Stephen Kolek", "pitcher_id": 663568, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 320, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.03, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.03, "skill_score": 1.7, "opportunity_score": 48.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 49.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3756, "model_under_probability": 0.6244, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2381, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.1375, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1375, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.982, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8445.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.04, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Stephen Kolek", "pitcher_id": 663568, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-02T11:58:31.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 139, "under_odds": -178, "expected_strikeouts": 4.03, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.03, "skill_score": 1.7, "opportunity_score": 48.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 49.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5503, "model_under_probability": 0.4497, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4184, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6403, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.3952, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.6048, "edge_over": 0.1319, "edge_under": -0.1906, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1319, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.982, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8445.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.04, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Stephen Kolek", "pitcher_id": 663568, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 136, "under_odds": -174, "expected_strikeouts": 4.03, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.03, "skill_score": 1.7, "opportunity_score": 48.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 49.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5503, "model_under_probability": 0.4497, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4237, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.635, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4002, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5998, "edge_over": 0.1266, "edge_under": -0.1853, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1266, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.982, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8445.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.04, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Stephen Kolek", "pitcher_id": 663568, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-02T11:58:51.045Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 136, "under_odds": -174, "expected_strikeouts": 4.03, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.03, "skill_score": 1.7, "opportunity_score": 48.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 49.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5503, "model_under_probability": 0.4497, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4237, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.635, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4002, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5998, "edge_over": 0.1266, "edge_under": -0.1853, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1266, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.982, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8445.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.04, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "pitcher_id": 543135, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-02T11:59:06.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -111, "expected_strikeouts": 5.73, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.75, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.73, "skill_score": 70.1, "opportunity_score": 80.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 12.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3552, "model_under_probability": 0.6448, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5041, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4959, "edge_over": -0.1797, "edge_under": 0.1187, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1187, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.996, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26779.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.59, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Stephen Kolek", "pitcher_id": 663568, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 750, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.03, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.03, "skill_score": 1.7, "opportunity_score": 48.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 49.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.235, "model_under_probability": 0.765, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1176, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.1174, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1174, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.982, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8445.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.04, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "pitcher_id": 543135, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-02T11:58:51.045Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -111, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 5.73, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.75, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.73, "skill_score": 70.1, "opportunity_score": 80.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 12.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3552, "model_under_probability": 0.6448, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4959, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5041, "edge_over": -0.1709, "edge_under": 0.1099, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1099, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.996, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26779.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.59, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Stephen Kolek", "pitcher_id": 663568, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-02T11:58:53.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 125, "under_odds": -165, "expected_strikeouts": 4.03, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.03, "skill_score": 1.7, "opportunity_score": 48.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 49.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5503, "model_under_probability": 0.4497, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4444, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6226, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4165, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5835, "edge_over": 0.1059, "edge_under": -0.1729, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1059, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.982, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8445.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.04, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "pitcher_id": 669160, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-02T11:58:08.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 4.09, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.09, "skill_score": 31.2, "opportunity_score": 43.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 57.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3861, "model_under_probability": 0.6139, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5101, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4899, "edge_over": -0.1594, "edge_under": 0.0901, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0901, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.068, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Gusto", "pitcher_id": 687473, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 750, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.48, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.48, "skill_score": 15.0, "opportunity_score": 11.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 97.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1883, "model_under_probability": 0.8117, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1176, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0707, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0707, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.5, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.126, "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7135.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.67, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 89.4, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Gusto", "pitcher_id": 687473, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 330, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.48, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.48, "skill_score": 15.0, "opportunity_score": 11.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 97.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3029, "model_under_probability": 0.6971, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2326, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0703, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0703, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.5, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.126, "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7135.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.67, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 89.4, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "pitcher_id": 669160, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -104, "under_odds": -122, "expected_strikeouts": 4.09, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.09, "skill_score": 31.2, "opportunity_score": 43.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 57.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3861, "model_under_probability": 0.6139, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4813, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5187, "edge_over": -0.1237, "edge_under": 0.0644, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0644, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.068, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "pitcher_id": 669160, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-02T11:58:51.045Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -104, "under_odds": -122, "expected_strikeouts": 4.09, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.09, "skill_score": 31.2, "opportunity_score": 43.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 57.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3861, "model_under_probability": 0.6139, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4813, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5187, "edge_over": -0.1237, "edge_under": 0.0644, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0644, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.068, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Stephen Kolek", "pitcher_id": 663568, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -205, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.03, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.03, "skill_score": 1.7, "opportunity_score": 48.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 49.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7331, "model_under_probability": 0.2669, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6721, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.061, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.061, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.982, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8445.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.04, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "pitcher_id": 669160, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-02T11:58:57.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -101, "under_odds": -126, "expected_strikeouts": 4.09, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.09, "skill_score": 31.2, "opportunity_score": 43.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 57.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3861, "model_under_probability": 0.6139, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5025, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5575, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4741, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5259, "edge_over": -0.1164, "edge_under": 0.0564, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0564, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.068, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Gusto", "pitcher_id": 687473, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 148, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.48, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.48, "skill_score": 15.0, "opportunity_score": 11.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 97.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4527, "model_under_probability": 0.5473, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4032, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0495, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0495, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.5, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.126, "aggregate_matchup_score": 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"suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2709, "model_under_probability": 0.7291, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2273, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0436, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0436, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "aggregate_matchup_score": 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conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3999, "model_under_probability": 0.6001, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4333, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5667, "edge_over": -0.0588, "edge_under": 0.0001, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0001, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.998, "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15077.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.22, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Randy V\u00e1squez", "pitcher_id": 681190, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-02T11:58:40.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 130, "under_odds": -175, "expected_strikeouts": 3.06, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.1, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.06, "skill_score": 7.5, "opportunity_score": 51.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 47.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3645, "model_under_probability": 0.6355, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6364, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4059, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5941, "edge_over": -0.0703, "edge_under": -0.0009, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0009, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.987, "aggregate_matchup_score": 9.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18198.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.28, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 59.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Slade Cecconi", "pitcher_id": 677944, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 540, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.17, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.18, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.17, "skill_score": 7.3, "opportunity_score": 44.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1516, "model_under_probability": 0.8484, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1562, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0046, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0046, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.998, "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15077.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.22, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Slade Cecconi", "pitcher_id": 677944, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 120, "under_odds": -154, "expected_strikeouts": 4.17, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.18, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.17, "skill_score": 7.3, "opportunity_score": 44.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3999, "model_under_probability": 0.6001, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4285, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5715, "edge_over": -0.0546, "edge_under": -0.0062, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0062, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.998, "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15077.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.22, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Lorenzen", "pitcher_id": 547179, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-02T11:58:49.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 4.27, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.13, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "skill_score": 12.1, "opportunity_score": 45.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 47.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5906, "model_under_probability": 0.4094, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5575, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4425, "edge_over": -0.0094, "edge_under": -0.0668, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0094, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26336.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 89.4, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Slade Cecconi", "pitcher_id": 677944, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-02T11:58:16.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 127, "under_odds": -163, "expected_strikeouts": 4.17, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.18, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.17, "skill_score": 7.3, "opportunity_score": 44.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3999, "model_under_probability": 0.6001, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4405, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6198, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4154, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5846, "edge_over": -0.0406, "edge_under": -0.0197, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0197, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.998, "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15077.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.22, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "pitcher_id": 664285, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-02T11:59:10.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -155, "under_odds": 115, "expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.57, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.13, "skill_score": 13.1, "opportunity_score": 43.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 49.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5558, "model_under_probability": 0.4442, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5665, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4335, "edge_over": -0.052, "edge_under": -0.0209, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0209, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.56, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.122, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33697.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Lorenzen", "pitcher_id": 547179, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-02T11:58:15.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -167, "under_odds": 131, "expected_strikeouts": 4.27, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.13, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "skill_score": 12.1, "opportunity_score": 45.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 47.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5906, "model_under_probability": 0.4094, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6255, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4329, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.591, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.409, "edge_over": -0.0349, "edge_under": -0.0235, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0235, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26336.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 89.4, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Slade Cecconi", "pitcher_id": 677944, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 255, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.17, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.18, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.17, "skill_score": 7.3, "opportunity_score": 44.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2558, "model_under_probability": 0.7442, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2817, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0259, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0259, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.998, "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15077.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.22, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Lorenzen", "pitcher_id": 547179, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -162, "under_odds": 126, "expected_strikeouts": 4.27, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.13, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "skill_score": 12.1, "opportunity_score": 45.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 47.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5906, "model_under_probability": 0.4094, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6183, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4425, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5829, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4171, "edge_over": -0.0277, "edge_under": -0.0331, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0277, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26336.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 89.4, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Lorenzen", "pitcher_id": 547179, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-02T11:58:51.045Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -162, "under_odds": 126, "expected_strikeouts": 4.27, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.13, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "skill_score": 12.1, "opportunity_score": 45.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 47.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5906, "model_under_probability": 0.4094, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6183, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4425, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5829, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4171, "edge_over": -0.0277, "edge_under": -0.0331, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0277, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26336.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 89.4, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Gusto", "pitcher_id": 687473, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -460, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.48, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.48, "skill_score": 15.0, "opportunity_score": 11.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 97.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.7883, "model_under_probability": 0.2117, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8214, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0331, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0331, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.5, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.126, "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7135.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.67, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 89.4, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "pitcher_id": 669160, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 450, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.09, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.09, "skill_score": 31.2, "opportunity_score": 43.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 57.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1426, "model_under_probability": 0.8574, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1818, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0392, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0392, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.068, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Lorenzen", "pitcher_id": 547179, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -440, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.27, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.13, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "skill_score": 12.1, "opportunity_score": 45.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 47.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.764, "model_under_probability": 0.236, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8148, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0508, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0508, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26336.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 89.4, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "pitcher_id": 669160, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 215, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.09, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.09, "skill_score": 31.2, "opportunity_score": 43.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 57.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2439, "model_under_probability": 0.7561, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3175, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0736, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0736, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.068, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "pitcher_id": 663436, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 350, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.91, "skill_score": 43.5, "opportunity_score": 54.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 31.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1232, "model_under_probability": 0.8768, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2222, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.099, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.099, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.982, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.91, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Slade Cecconi", "pitcher_id": 677944, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -215, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.17, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.18, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.17, "skill_score": 7.3, "opportunity_score": 44.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5742, "model_under_probability": 0.4258, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6825, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1083, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1083, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.998, "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15077.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.22, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Slade Cecconi", "pitcher_id": 677944, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -650, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.17, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.18, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.17, "skill_score": 7.3, "opportunity_score": 44.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7515, "model_under_probability": 0.2485, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8667, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1152, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1152, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.998, "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15077.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.22, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "pitcher_id": 669160, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -770, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.09, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.09, "skill_score": 31.2, "opportunity_score": 43.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 57.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7411, "model_under_probability": 0.2589, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8851, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.144, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.144, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.068, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "pitcher_id": 663436, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 164, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.91, "skill_score": 43.5, "opportunity_score": 54.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 31.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2175, "model_under_probability": 0.7825, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3788, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1613, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1613, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.982, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.91, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "pitcher_id": 669160, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -260, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.09, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.09, "skill_score": 31.2, "opportunity_score": 43.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 57.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5606, "model_under_probability": 0.4394, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7222, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1616, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1616, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.068, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "pitcher_id": 663436, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1100, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.91, "skill_score": 43.5, "opportunity_score": 54.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 31.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7163, "model_under_probability": 0.2837, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9167, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2004, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2004, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.982, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.91, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "pitcher_id": 663436, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -350, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.91, "skill_score": 43.5, "opportunity_score": 54.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 31.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5292, "model_under_probability": 0.4708, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7778, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2486, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2486, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.982, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.91, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "pitcher_id": 694819, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -3500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.23, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.36, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.23, "skill_score": 84.8, "opportunity_score": 54.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.3, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 41.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.5602, "model_under_probability": 0.4398, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9722, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.412, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.412, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.0, "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.95, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 94.3, "wind_speed_mph": 14.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "pitcher_id": 694819, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -186, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.23, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.36, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.23, "skill_score": 84.8, "opportunity_score": 54.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.3, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 41.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2065, "model_under_probability": 0.7935, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6503, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.4438, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.4438, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.0, "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.95, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 94.3, "wind_speed_mph": 14.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "pitcher_id": 694819, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1000, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.23, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.36, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.23, "skill_score": 84.8, "opportunity_score": 54.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.3, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 41.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4237, "model_under_probability": 0.5763, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9091, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.4854, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.4854, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.0, "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.95, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 94.3, "wind_speed_mph": 14.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "pitcher_id": 694819, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -430, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.23, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.36, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.23, "skill_score": 84.8, "opportunity_score": 54.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.3, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 41.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3034, "model_under_probability": 0.6966, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8113, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.5079, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.5079, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.0, "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.95, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 94.3, "wind_speed_mph": 14.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [ { "pitcher_name": "Alan Rangel", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Alan Rangel", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Alan Rangel", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Alan Rangel", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Alan Rangel", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Chase Burns", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Chase Burns", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Chase Burns", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Chase Burns", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Chase Burns", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Chase Burns", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Chase Burns", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Chase Burns", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 8.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Chase Burns 10+ Strikeouts", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 9.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ian Seymour", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ian Seymour", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ian Seymour", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ian Seymour", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ian Seymour", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ian Seymour", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ian Seymour", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ian Seymour", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski 10+ Strikeouts", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 9.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski 11+ Strikeouts", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 10.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski 12+ Strikeouts", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 11.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Roki Sasaki", "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Roki Sasaki", "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Roki Sasaki", "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Walbert Ure\u00f1a", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Walbert Ure\u00f1a", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Walbert Ure\u00f1a", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." } ] }