{ "date": "2026-05-31", "generated_at": "2026-05-31T09:03:39.232621", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "projection_date": "2026-05-31", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 257, "matched_count": 190, "unmatched_count": 67 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 190, "grouped_pitcher_count": 23, "sportsbook_count": 3 }, "edge_count": 190, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "pitcher_id": 694819, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -118, "under_odds": -112, "expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.82, "skill_score": 86.5, "opportunity_score": 53.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.3, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 42.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.1652, "model_under_probability": 0.8348, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5413, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5283, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5061, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4939, "edge_over": -0.3761, "edge_under": 0.3065, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.3065, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.973, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.27, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "pitcher_id": 694819, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:36.000Z", "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -118, "under_odds": -112, "expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.82, "skill_score": 86.5, "opportunity_score": 53.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.3, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 42.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.1652, "model_under_probability": 0.8348, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5413, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5283, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5061, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4939, "edge_over": -0.3761, "edge_under": 0.3065, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.3065, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.973, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.27, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "pitcher_id": 694819, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:17.000Z", "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -106, "under_odds": -121, "expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.82, "skill_score": 86.5, "opportunity_score": 53.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.3, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 42.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.1652, "model_under_probability": 0.8348, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5146, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5475, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4845, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5155, "edge_over": -0.3494, "edge_under": 0.2873, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2873, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.973, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.27, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "pitcher_id": 694819, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:18.000Z", "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -105, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.82, "skill_score": 86.5, "opportunity_score": 53.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.3, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 42.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.1652, "model_under_probability": 0.8348, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4797, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5203, "edge_over": -0.347, "edge_under": 0.2792, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2792, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.973, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.27, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Spencer Strider", "pitcher_id": 675911, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:55:52.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -155, "under_odds": 115, "expected_strikeouts": 5.55, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.84, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.55, "skill_score": 56.7, "opportunity_score": 40.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 56.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 54.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3304, "model_under_probability": 0.6696, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5665, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4335, "edge_over": -0.2774, "edge_under": 0.2045, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2045, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.71, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.147, "aggregate_matchup_score": 80.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20559.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.37, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:42.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -110, "under_odds": -120, "expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.21, "skill_score": 20.7, "opportunity_score": 44.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 46.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2618, "model_under_probability": 0.7382, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4899, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5101, "edge_over": -0.262, "edge_under": 0.1927, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1927, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.041, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.1, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Spencer Strider", "pitcher_id": 675911, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:00.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -132, "under_odds": 104, "expected_strikeouts": 5.55, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.84, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.55, "skill_score": 56.7, "opportunity_score": 40.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 56.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 54.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3304, "model_under_probability": 0.6696, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5372, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4628, "edge_over": -0.2386, "edge_under": 0.1794, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1794, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.71, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.147, "aggregate_matchup_score": 80.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20559.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.37, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:37.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 103, "under_odds": -132, "expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.21, "skill_score": 20.7, "opportunity_score": 44.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 46.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2618, "model_under_probability": 0.7382, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4926, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.464, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.536, "edge_over": -0.2308, "edge_under": 0.1692, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1692, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.041, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.1, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -134, "expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.21, "skill_score": 20.7, "opportunity_score": 44.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 46.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2618, "model_under_probability": 0.7382, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5726, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.454, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.546, "edge_over": -0.2144, "edge_under": 0.1656, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1656, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.041, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.1, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:35.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -134, "expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.21, "skill_score": 20.7, "opportunity_score": 44.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 46.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2618, "model_under_probability": 0.7382, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5726, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.454, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.546, "edge_over": -0.2144, "edge_under": 0.1656, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1656, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.041, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.1, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "pitcher_id": 669461, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:43.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -117, "under_odds": -109, "expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.7, "skill_score": 38.7, "opportunity_score": 38.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 63.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3177, "model_under_probability": 0.6823, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5392, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5215, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5083, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4917, "edge_over": -0.2215, "edge_under": 0.1608, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1608, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.967, "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "pitcher_id": 669461, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -110, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.7, "skill_score": 38.7, "opportunity_score": 38.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 63.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3177, "model_under_probability": 0.6823, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.2061, "edge_under": 0.1585, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1585, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.967, "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "pitcher_id": 669461, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:37.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -110, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.7, "skill_score": 38.7, "opportunity_score": 38.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 63.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3177, "model_under_probability": 0.6823, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.2061, "edge_under": 0.1585, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1585, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.967, "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Lopez", "pitcher_id": 682052, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 320, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.59, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "skill_score": 2.4, "opportunity_score": 46.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 54.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3937, "model_under_probability": 0.6063, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2381, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.1556, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1556, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.48, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.105, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7962.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.92, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Spencer Strider", "pitcher_id": 675911, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -122, "under_odds": -108, "expected_strikeouts": 5.55, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.84, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.55, "skill_score": 56.7, "opportunity_score": 40.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 56.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 54.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3304, "model_under_probability": 0.6696, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5192, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5142, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4858, "edge_over": -0.2191, "edge_under": 0.1504, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1504, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.71, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.147, "aggregate_matchup_score": 80.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20559.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.37, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Spencer Strider", "pitcher_id": 675911, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:35.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -122, "under_odds": -108, "expected_strikeouts": 5.55, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.84, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.55, "skill_score": 56.7, "opportunity_score": 40.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 56.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 54.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3304, "model_under_probability": 0.6696, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5192, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5142, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4858, "edge_over": -0.2191, "edge_under": 0.1504, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1504, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.71, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.147, "aggregate_matchup_score": 80.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20559.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.37, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Lopez", "pitcher_id": 682052, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 148, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.59, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "skill_score": 2.4, "opportunity_score": 46.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 54.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5468, "model_under_probability": 0.4532, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4032, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.1436, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1436, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.48, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.105, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7962.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.92, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Lopez", "pitcher_id": 682052, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 680, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.59, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "skill_score": 2.4, "opportunity_score": 46.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 54.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2647, "model_under_probability": 0.7353, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1282, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.1365, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1365, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.48, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.105, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7962.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.92, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Lopez", "pitcher_id": 682052, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:17.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -144, "under_odds": 113, "expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.59, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "skill_score": 2.4, "opportunity_score": 46.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 54.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7058, "model_under_probability": 0.2942, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4695, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.557, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.443, "edge_over": 0.1156, "edge_under": -0.1753, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1156, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.48, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.105, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7962.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.92, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Lopez", "pitcher_id": 682052, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:17.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -144, "under_odds": 118, "expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.59, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "skill_score": 2.4, "opportunity_score": 46.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 54.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7058, "model_under_probability": 0.2942, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5627, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4373, "edge_over": 0.1156, "edge_under": -0.1645, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1156, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.48, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.105, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7962.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.92, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "pitcher_id": 518876, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -172, "under_odds": 128, "expected_strikeouts": 4.44, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "skill_score": 18.4, "opportunity_score": 66.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 22.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.446, "model_under_probability": 0.554, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6324, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4386, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5905, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4095, "edge_over": -0.1864, "edge_under": 0.1154, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1154, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.46, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.115, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27142.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "pitcher_id": 518876, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:34.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -172, "under_odds": 128, "expected_strikeouts": 4.44, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "skill_score": 18.4, "opportunity_score": 66.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 22.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.446, "model_under_probability": 0.554, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6324, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4386, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5905, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4095, "edge_over": -0.1864, "edge_under": 0.1154, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1154, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.46, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.115, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27142.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "pitcher_id": 518876, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:14.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -159, "under_odds": 124, "expected_strikeouts": 4.44, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "skill_score": 18.4, "opportunity_score": 66.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 22.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.446, "model_under_probability": 0.554, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6139, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.579, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.421, "edge_over": -0.1679, "edge_under": 0.1076, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1076, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.46, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.115, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27142.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "pitcher_id": 672456, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:42.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -140, "under_odds": 105, "expected_strikeouts": 3.29, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.1, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.29, "skill_score": 4.3, "opportunity_score": 41.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 52.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4112, "model_under_probability": 0.5888, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5446, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4554, "edge_over": -0.1721, "edge_under": 0.101, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.101, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9948.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.75, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.1, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Janson Junk", "pitcher_id": 676083, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:05.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -135, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 3.23, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.19, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.23, "skill_score": 2.4, "opportunity_score": 49.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 47.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3991, "model_under_probability": 0.6009, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5347, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4653, "edge_over": -0.1754, "edge_under": 0.1009, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1009, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "aggregate_matchup_score": 20.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6842.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 12.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Griffin Canning", "pitcher_id": 656288, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:39.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -101, "under_odds": -127, "expected_strikeouts": 3.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "skill_score": 41.6, "opportunity_score": 23.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 89.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3406, "model_under_probability": 0.6594, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5025, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5595, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4732, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5268, "edge_over": -0.1619, "edge_under": 0.0999, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0999, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23781.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Lopez", "pitcher_id": 682052, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -154, "under_odds": 118, "expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.59, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "skill_score": 2.4, "opportunity_score": 46.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 54.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7058, "model_under_probability": 0.2942, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5693, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4307, "edge_over": 0.0995, "edge_under": -0.1645, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0995, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.48, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.105, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7962.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.92, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "pitcher_id": 669461, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:01.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 105, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.7, "skill_score": 38.7, "opportunity_score": 38.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 63.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3177, "model_under_probability": 0.6823, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4554, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5446, "edge_over": -0.1701, "edge_under": 0.099, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.099, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.967, "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Griffin Canning", "pitcher_id": 656288, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -102, "under_odds": -130, "expected_strikeouts": 3.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "skill_score": 41.6, "opportunity_score": 23.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 89.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3406, "model_under_probability": 0.6594, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4719, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5281, "edge_over": -0.1644, "edge_under": 0.0942, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0942, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23781.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Griffin Canning", "pitcher_id": 656288, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:13.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -102, "under_odds": -130, "expected_strikeouts": 3.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "skill_score": 41.6, "opportunity_score": 23.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 89.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3406, "model_under_probability": 0.6594, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4719, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5281, "edge_over": -0.1644, "edge_under": 0.0942, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0942, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23781.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Lopez", "pitcher_id": 682052, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:56:48.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 120, "under_odds": -160, "expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.59, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "skill_score": 2.4, "opportunity_score": 46.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 54.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5468, "model_under_probability": 0.4532, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4248, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5752, "edge_over": 0.0923, "edge_under": -0.1622, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0923, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.48, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.105, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7962.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.92, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Leiter", "pitcher_id": 683004, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:40.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -110, "under_odds": -120, "expected_strikeouts": 4.87, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.24, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.87, "skill_score": 33.1, "opportunity_score": 54.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.363, "model_under_probability": 0.637, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4899, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5101, "edge_over": -0.1608, "edge_under": 0.0915, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0915, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.94, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14747.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.51, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 93.0, "wind_speed_mph": 10.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "pitcher_id": 666157, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -138, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 5.35, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "skill_score": 40.1, "opportunity_score": 53.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.436, "model_under_probability": 0.564, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5798, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5491, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4509, "edge_over": -0.1438, "edge_under": 0.0878, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0878, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.69, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "pitcher_id": 666157, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:35.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -134, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 5.35, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "skill_score": 40.1, "opportunity_score": 53.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.436, "model_under_probability": 0.564, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5726, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.546, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.454, "edge_over": -0.1366, "edge_under": 0.0878, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0878, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.69, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Littell", "pitcher_id": 641793, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 580, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.02, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.96, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.02, "skill_score": 10.3, "opportunity_score": 34.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 70.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2335, "model_under_probability": 0.7665, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1471, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0864, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0864, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26904.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.26, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "pitcher_id": 680694, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 490, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.8, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.86, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.8, "skill_score": 19.1, "opportunity_score": 55.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2506, "model_under_probability": 0.7494, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1695, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0811, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0811, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.99, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13080.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Wacha", "pitcher_id": 608379, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -162, "under_odds": 122, "expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "skill_score": 18.8, "opportunity_score": 75.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 12.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4693, "model_under_probability": 0.5307, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6183, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5785, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4215, "edge_over": -0.149, "edge_under": 0.0802, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0802, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30396.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 93.0, "wind_speed_mph": 10.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Littell", "pitcher_id": 641793, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 240, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.02, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.96, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.02, "skill_score": 10.3, "opportunity_score": 34.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 70.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3739, "model_under_probability": 0.6261, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2941, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0798, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0798, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26904.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.26, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Wacha", "pitcher_id": 608379, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:43.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -160, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "skill_score": 18.8, "opportunity_score": 75.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 12.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4693, "model_under_probability": 0.5307, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5752, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4248, "edge_over": -0.1461, "edge_under": 0.0762, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0762, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30396.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 93.0, "wind_speed_mph": 10.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Griffin Canning", "pitcher_id": 656288, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:04.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 105, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 3.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "skill_score": 41.6, "opportunity_score": 23.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 89.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3406, "model_under_probability": 0.6594, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4554, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5446, "edge_over": -0.1472, "edge_under": 0.0761, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0761, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23781.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "pitcher_id": 694819, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -470, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.82, "skill_score": 86.5, "opportunity_score": 53.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.3, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 42.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.8959, "model_under_probability": 0.1041, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8246, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0713, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0713, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.973, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.27, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "pitcher_id": 592662, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 520, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.64, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.64, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 42.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2315, "model_under_probability": 0.7685, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1613, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0702, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0702, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.44, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.086, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.28, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 78.3, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Wacha", "pitcher_id": 608379, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:22.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -148, "under_odds": 116, "expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "skill_score": 18.8, "opportunity_score": 75.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 12.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4693, "model_under_probability": 0.5307, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5968, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5631, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4369, "edge_over": -0.1275, "edge_under": 0.0677, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0677, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30396.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 93.0, "wind_speed_mph": 10.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Janson Junk", "pitcher_id": 676083, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:07.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -111, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 3.23, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.19, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.23, "skill_score": 2.4, "opportunity_score": 49.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 47.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3991, "model_under_probability": 0.6009, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4959, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5041, "edge_over": -0.127, "edge_under": 0.066, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.066, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "aggregate_matchup_score": 20.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6842.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 12.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "pitcher_id": 672456, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:37.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -116, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 3.29, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.1, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.29, "skill_score": 4.3, "opportunity_score": 41.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 52.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4112, "model_under_probability": 0.5888, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.537, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5062, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4938, "edge_over": -0.1258, "edge_under": 0.065, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.065, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9948.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.75, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.1, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "pitcher_id": 672456, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -122, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 3.29, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.1, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.29, "skill_score": 4.3, "opportunity_score": 41.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 52.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4112, "model_under_probability": 0.5888, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.512, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.488, "edge_over": -0.1383, "edge_under": 0.065, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.065, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9948.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.75, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.1, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "pitcher_id": 672456, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:35.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -122, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 3.29, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.1, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.29, "skill_score": 4.3, "opportunity_score": 41.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 52.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4112, "model_under_probability": 0.5888, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.512, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.488, "edge_over": -0.1383, "edge_under": 0.065, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.065, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9948.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.75, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.1, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Leiter", "pitcher_id": 683004, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:43.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -134, "expected_strikeouts": 4.87, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.24, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.87, "skill_score": 33.1, "opportunity_score": 54.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.363, "model_under_probability": 0.637, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5726, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.454, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.546, "edge_over": -0.1132, "edge_under": 0.0644, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0644, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.94, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14747.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.51, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 93.0, "wind_speed_mph": 10.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ranger Suarez", "pitcher_id": 624133, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -158, "under_odds": 116, "expected_strikeouts": 4.6, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "skill_score": 22.1, "opportunity_score": 32.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 63.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4726, "model_under_probability": 0.5274, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5695, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4305, "edge_over": -0.1398, "edge_under": 0.0644, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0644, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.083, "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27635.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.15, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "pitcher_id": 666157, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:00.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -125, "under_odds": -102, "expected_strikeouts": 5.35, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "skill_score": 40.1, "opportunity_score": 53.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.436, "model_under_probability": 0.564, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5239, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4761, "edge_over": -0.1196, "edge_under": 0.059, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.059, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.69, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "pitcher_id": 680694, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 225, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.8, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.86, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.8, "skill_score": 19.1, "opportunity_score": 55.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3649, "model_under_probability": 0.6351, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3077, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0572, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0572, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.99, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13080.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Leiter", "pitcher_id": 683004, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 108, "under_odds": -138, "expected_strikeouts": 4.87, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.24, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.87, "skill_score": 33.1, "opportunity_score": 54.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.363, "model_under_probability": 0.637, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5798, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4533, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5467, "edge_over": -0.1178, "edge_under": 0.0572, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0572, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.94, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14747.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.51, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 93.0, "wind_speed_mph": 10.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "pitcher_id": 518876, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:29.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -135, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 4.44, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "skill_score": 18.4, "opportunity_score": 66.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 22.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.446, "model_under_probability": 0.554, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5347, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4653, "edge_over": -0.1285, "edge_under": 0.054, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.054, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.46, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.115, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27142.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Littell", "pitcher_id": 641793, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 102, "under_odds": -128, "expected_strikeouts": 4.02, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.96, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.02, "skill_score": 10.3, "opportunity_score": 34.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 70.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5486, "model_under_probability": 0.4514, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4686, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5314, "edge_over": 0.0536, "edge_under": -0.11, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0536, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26904.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.26, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Janson Junk", "pitcher_id": 676083, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -108, "under_odds": -122, "expected_strikeouts": 3.23, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.19, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.23, "skill_score": 2.4, "opportunity_score": 49.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 47.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3991, "model_under_probability": 0.6009, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5192, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4858, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5142, "edge_over": -0.1201, "edge_under": 0.0514, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0514, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "aggregate_matchup_score": 20.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6842.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 12.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Janson Junk", "pitcher_id": 676083, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:20.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -108, "under_odds": -122, "expected_strikeouts": 3.23, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.19, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.23, "skill_score": 2.4, "opportunity_score": 49.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 47.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3991, "model_under_probability": 0.6009, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5192, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4858, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5142, "edge_over": -0.1201, "edge_under": 0.0514, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0514, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "aggregate_matchup_score": 20.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6842.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 12.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "pitcher_id": 592662, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 240, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.64, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.64, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 42.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3428, "model_under_probability": 0.6572, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2941, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0487, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0487, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.44, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.086, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.28, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 78.3, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "pitcher_id": 676440, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 640, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.19, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.19, "skill_score": 43.8, "opportunity_score": 40.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 57.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1802, "model_under_probability": 0.8198, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1351, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0451, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0451, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.045, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "pitcher_id": 676440, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 320, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.19, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.19, "skill_score": 43.8, "opportunity_score": 40.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 57.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.281, "model_under_probability": 0.719, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2381, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0429, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0429, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.045, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zebby Matthews", "pitcher_id": 805673, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:20.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 117, "under_odds": -149, "expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.85, "skill_score": 32.4, "opportunity_score": 56.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 40.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3599, "model_under_probability": 0.6401, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4608, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5984, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.435, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.565, "edge_over": -0.1009, "edge_under": 0.0417, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0417, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9633.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.21, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Gordon", "pitcher_id": 685299, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 470, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.89, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.89, "skill_score": 5.9, "opportunity_score": 32.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 72.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2146, "model_under_probability": 0.7854, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1754, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0392, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0392, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.978, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8648.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.87, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 78.3, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Gordon", "pitcher_id": 685299, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 220, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.89, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.89, "skill_score": 5.9, "opportunity_score": 32.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 72.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3511, "model_under_probability": 0.6489, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3125, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0386, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0386, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.978, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8648.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.87, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 78.3, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Leiter", "pitcher_id": 683004, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:22.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 118, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 4.87, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.24, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.87, "skill_score": 33.1, "opportunity_score": 54.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.363, "model_under_probability": 0.637, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4333, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5667, "edge_over": -0.0957, "edge_under": 0.037, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.037, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.94, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14747.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.51, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 93.0, "wind_speed_mph": 10.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zebby Matthews", "pitcher_id": 805673, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 114, "under_odds": -152, "expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.85, "skill_score": 32.4, "opportunity_score": 56.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 40.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3599, "model_under_probability": 0.6401, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6032, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4365, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5635, "edge_over": -0.1074, "edge_under": 0.0369, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0369, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9633.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.21, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zebby Matthews", "pitcher_id": 805673, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:20.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 114, "under_odds": -152, "expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.85, "skill_score": 32.4, "opportunity_score": 56.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 40.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", 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"sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:56:31.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 114, "under_odds": -145, "expected_strikeouts": 5.8, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.86, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.8, "skill_score": 19.1, "opportunity_score": 55.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context 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watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.188, "model_under_probability": 0.812, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1695, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0185, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0185, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.031, "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.08, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryce Miller", "pitcher_id": 682243, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 550, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.43, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.33, "skill_score": 46.9, "opportunity_score": 35.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 89.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1702, "model_under_probability": 0.8298, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1538, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0164, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0164, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.977, "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24988.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.26, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "pitcher_id": 592662, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 116, "under_odds": -154, "expected_strikeouts": 5.64, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.64, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 42.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4786, "model_under_probability": 0.5214, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.433, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.567, "edge_over": 0.0156, "edge_under": -0.0849, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0156, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.44, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.086, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.28, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 78.3, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "pitcher_id": 592662, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:16.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 116, "under_odds": -154, "expected_strikeouts": 5.64, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.64, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 42.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4786, "model_under_probability": 0.5214, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.433, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.567, "edge_over": 0.0156, "edge_under": -0.0849, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0156, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.44, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.086, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.28, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 78.3, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "pitcher_id": 808967, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:31.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -158, "under_odds": 123, "expected_strikeouts": 6.05, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.87, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.05, "skill_score": 39.4, "opportunity_score": 74.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 14.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.5361, "model_under_probability": 0.4639, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4484, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5773, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4227, "edge_over": -0.0763, "edge_under": 0.0155, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0155, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.031, "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.08, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "pitcher_id": 676440, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 152, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.19, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.19, "skill_score": 43.8, "opportunity_score": 40.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 57.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4119, "model_under_probability": 0.5881, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3968, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0151, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0151, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.045, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "pitcher_id": 808967, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 116, "under_odds": -142, "expected_strikeouts": 6.05, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.87, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.05, "skill_score": 39.4, "opportunity_score": 74.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 14.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3992, "model_under_probability": 0.6008, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5868, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.441, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.559, "edge_over": -0.0638, "edge_under": 0.014, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.014, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.031, "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.08, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "pitcher_id": 808967, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:29.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 116, "under_odds": -142, "expected_strikeouts": 6.05, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.87, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.05, "skill_score": 39.4, "opportunity_score": 74.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 14.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3992, "model_under_probability": 0.6008, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5868, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.441, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.559, "edge_over": -0.0638, "edge_under": 0.014, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.014, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.031, "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.08, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "pitcher_id": 680694, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:21.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 105, "under_odds": -145, "expected_strikeouts": 5.8, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.86, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.8, "skill_score": 19.1, "opportunity_score": 55.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5015, "model_under_probability": 0.4985, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5918, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4518, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5482, "edge_over": 0.0137, "edge_under": -0.0933, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0137, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.99, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13080.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Gordon", "pitcher_id": 685299, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:16.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -105, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 3.89, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.89, "skill_score": 5.9, "opportunity_score": 32.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 72.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5256, "model_under_probability": 0.4744, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4892, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5108, "edge_over": 0.0134, "edge_under": -0.0605, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0134, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.978, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8648.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.87, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 78.3, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "pitcher_id": 701542, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:17.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 114, "under_odds": -146, "expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "skill_score": 38.2, "opportunity_score": 50.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 45.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3937, "model_under_probability": 0.6063, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5935, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4405, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5595, "edge_over": -0.0736, "edge_under": 0.0128, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0128, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.069, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15754.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.66, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "pitcher_id": 694819, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -350, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.82, "skill_score": 86.5, "opportunity_score": 53.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.3, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 42.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.7878, "model_under_probability": 0.2122, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7778, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.01, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.01, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.973, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.27, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Kochanowicz", "pitcher_id": 686799, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 265, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.49, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.54, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.49, "skill_score": 11.8, "opportunity_score": 49.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 38.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.281, "model_under_probability": 0.719, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.274, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.007, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.007, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.996, "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12726.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.73, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 87.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Gordon", "pitcher_id": 685299, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -108, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 3.89, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.89, "skill_score": 5.9, "opportunity_score": 32.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 72.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5256, "model_under_probability": 0.4744, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5192, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4926, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5074, "edge_over": 0.0064, "edge_under": -0.0605, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0064, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.978, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8648.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.87, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 78.3, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "pitcher_id": 701542, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 520, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "skill_score": 38.2, "opportunity_score": 50.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 45.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1673, "model_under_probability": 0.8327, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1613, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.006, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.006, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.069, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15754.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.66, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryce Miller", "pitcher_id": 682243, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -192, "under_odds": 154, "expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.43, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.33, "skill_score": 46.9, "opportunity_score": 35.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 89.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6003, "model_under_probability": 0.3997, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6575, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.3937, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.6255, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.3745, "edge_over": -0.0572, "edge_under": 0.006, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.006, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.977, "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24988.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.26, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryce Miller", "pitcher_id": 682243, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:34.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -192, "under_odds": 154, "expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.43, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.33, "skill_score": 46.9, "opportunity_score": 35.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 89.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6003, "model_under_probability": 0.3997, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6575, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.3937, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.6255, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.3745, "edge_over": -0.0572, "edge_under": 0.006, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.006, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.977, "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24988.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.26, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryce Miller", "pitcher_id": 682243, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 260, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.43, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.33, "skill_score": 46.9, "opportunity_score": 35.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 89.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.28, "model_under_probability": 0.72, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2778, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0022, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0022, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.977, "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24988.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.26, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Littell", "pitcher_id": 641793, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -275, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.02, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.96, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.02, "skill_score": 10.3, "opportunity_score": 34.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 70.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.7317, "model_under_probability": 0.2683, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0016, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0016, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26904.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.26, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryce Miller", "pitcher_id": 682243, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:14.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 133, "under_odds": -170, "expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.43, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.33, "skill_score": 46.9, "opportunity_score": 35.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 89.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4274, "model_under_probability": 0.5726, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4292, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6296, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4054, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5946, "edge_over": -0.0018, "edge_under": -0.057, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0018, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.977, "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24988.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.26, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "pitcher_id": 808967, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:14.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 115, "under_odds": -155, "expected_strikeouts": 6.05, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.87, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.05, "skill_score": 39.4, "opportunity_score": 74.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 14.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3992, "model_under_probability": 0.6008, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4335, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5665, "edge_over": -0.0659, "edge_under": -0.007, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.007, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.031, "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.08, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ranger Suarez", "pitcher_id": 624133, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 680, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.6, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "skill_score": 22.1, "opportunity_score": 32.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 63.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1204, "model_under_probability": 0.8796, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1282, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0078, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0078, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.083, "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27635.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.15, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "pitcher_id": 666157, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 640, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.35, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "skill_score": 40.1, "opportunity_score": 53.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1225, "model_under_probability": 0.8775, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1351, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0126, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0126, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.69, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Kochanowicz", "pitcher_id": 686799, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:10.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 115, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.49, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.54, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.49, "skill_score": 11.8, "opportunity_score": 49.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 38.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4507, "model_under_probability": 0.5493, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0144, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0144, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.996, "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12726.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.73, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 87.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "pitcher_id": 701542, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 124, "under_odds": -166, "expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "skill_score": 38.2, "opportunity_score": 50.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 45.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3937, "model_under_probability": 0.6063, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6241, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.417, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.583, "edge_over": -0.0527, "edge_under": -0.0178, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0178, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.069, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15754.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.66, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "pitcher_id": 701542, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:17.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 124, "under_odds": -166, "expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "skill_score": 38.2, "opportunity_score": 50.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 45.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3937, "model_under_probability": 0.6063, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6241, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.417, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.583, "edge_over": -0.0527, "edge_under": -0.0178, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0178, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.069, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15754.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.66, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Wacha", "pitcher_id": 608379, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 630, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "skill_score": 18.8, "opportunity_score": 75.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 12.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1186, "model_under_probability": 0.8814, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.137, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0184, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0184, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30396.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 93.0, "wind_speed_mph": 10.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Gordon", "pitcher_id": 685299, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:38.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 170, "under_odds": -235, "expected_strikeouts": 3.89, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.89, "skill_score": 5.9, "opportunity_score": 32.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 72.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3511, "model_under_probability": 0.6489, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3704, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7015, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.3456, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.6544, "edge_over": -0.0193, "edge_under": -0.0526, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0193, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.978, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8648.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.87, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 78.3, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Gordon", "pitcher_id": 685299, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -275, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.89, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.89, "skill_score": 5.9, "opportunity_score": 32.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 72.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.7134, "model_under_probability": 0.2866, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0199, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0199, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.978, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8648.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.87, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 78.3, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Leiter", "pitcher_id": 683004, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 490, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.87, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.24, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.87, "skill_score": 33.1, "opportunity_score": 54.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1465, "model_under_probability": 0.8535, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1695, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.023, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.023, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.94, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14747.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.51, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 93.0, "wind_speed_mph": 10.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "pitcher_id": 676440, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -154, "under_odds": 118, "expected_strikeouts": 5.19, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.19, "skill_score": 43.8, "opportunity_score": 40.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 57.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5647, "model_under_probability": 0.4353, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5693, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4307, "edge_over": -0.0416, "edge_under": -0.0234, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0234, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.045, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "pitcher_id": 676440, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:35.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -144, "under_odds": 118, "expected_strikeouts": 5.19, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.19, "skill_score": 43.8, "opportunity_score": 40.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 57.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5647, "model_under_probability": 0.4353, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5627, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4373, "edge_over": -0.0255, "edge_under": -0.0234, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0234, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.045, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Gordon", "pitcher_id": 685299, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:25.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -122, "under_odds": -104, "expected_strikeouts": 3.89, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.89, "skill_score": 5.9, "opportunity_score": 32.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 72.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5256, "model_under_probability": 0.4744, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5187, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4813, "edge_over": -0.0239, "edge_under": -0.0354, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0239, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.978, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8648.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.87, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 78.3, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zebby Matthews", "pitcher_id": 805673, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 490, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.85, "skill_score": 32.4, "opportunity_score": 56.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 40.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1445, "model_under_probability": 0.8555, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1695, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.025, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.025, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9633.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.21, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Kochanowicz", "pitcher_id": 686799, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -146, "expected_strikeouts": 3.49, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.54, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.49, "skill_score": 11.8, "opportunity_score": 49.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 38.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4507, "model_under_probability": 0.5493, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5935, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4452, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5548, "edge_over": -0.0255, "edge_under": -0.0442, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0255, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.996, "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12726.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.73, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 87.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Kochanowicz", "pitcher_id": 686799, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:24.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -146, "expected_strikeouts": 3.49, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.54, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.49, "skill_score": 11.8, "opportunity_score": 49.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 38.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4507, "model_under_probability": 0.5493, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5935, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4452, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5548, "edge_over": -0.0255, "edge_under": -0.0442, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0255, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.996, "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12726.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.73, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 87.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "pitcher_id": 808967, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 225, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.05, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.87, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.05, "skill_score": 39.4, "opportunity_score": 74.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 14.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2811, "model_under_probability": 0.7189, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3077, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0266, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0266, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.031, "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.08, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "pitcher_id": 676440, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:56:58.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 128, "under_odds": -164, "expected_strikeouts": 5.19, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.19, "skill_score": 43.8, "opportunity_score": 40.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 57.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4119, "model_under_probability": 0.5881, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4386, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6212, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4139, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5861, "edge_over": -0.0267, "edge_under": -0.0331, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0267, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.045, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Kochanowicz", "pitcher_id": 686799, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:01.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 107, "under_odds": -136, "expected_strikeouts": 3.49, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.54, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.49, "skill_score": 11.8, "opportunity_score": 49.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 38.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4507, "model_under_probability": 0.5493, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4831, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.456, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.544, "edge_over": -0.0324, "edge_under": -0.027, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.027, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.996, "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12726.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.73, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 87.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryce Miller", "pitcher_id": 682243, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:29.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.43, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.33, "skill_score": 46.9, "opportunity_score": 35.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 89.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4274, "model_under_probability": 0.5726, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4425, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5575, "edge_over": -0.0488, "edge_under": -0.0274, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0274, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.977, "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24988.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.26, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "pitcher_id": 518876, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 640, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.44, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "skill_score": 18.4, "opportunity_score": 66.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 22.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1061, "model_under_probability": 0.8939, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1351, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.029, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.029, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.46, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.115, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27142.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryce Miller", "pitcher_id": 682243, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 118, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.43, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.33, "skill_score": 46.9, "opportunity_score": 35.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 89.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4274, "model_under_probability": 0.5726, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0313, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0313, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.977, "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24988.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.26, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "pitcher_id": 592662, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:38.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -105, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 5.64, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.64, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 42.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4786, "model_under_probability": 0.5214, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4797, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5203, "edge_over": -0.0336, "edge_under": -0.0342, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0336, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.44, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.086, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.28, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 78.3, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "pitcher_id": 701542, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 235, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "skill_score": 38.2, "opportunity_score": 50.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 45.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2647, "model_under_probability": 0.7353, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2985, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0338, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0338, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.069, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15754.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.66, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ranger Suarez", "pitcher_id": 624133, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 320, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.6, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "skill_score": 22.1, "opportunity_score": 32.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 63.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2033, "model_under_probability": 0.7967, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2381, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0348, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0348, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.083, "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27635.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.15, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "pitcher_id": 676440, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-31T12:57:02.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 5.19, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.19, "skill_score": 43.8, "opportunity_score": 40.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 57.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5647, "model_under_probability": 0.4353, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5575, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4425, "edge_over": -0.0353, "edge_under": -0.0409, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0353, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.045, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "pitcher_id": 666157, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 320, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.35, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "skill_score": 40.1, "opportunity_score": 53.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.198, "model_under_probability": 0.802, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2381, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0401, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0401, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.69, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Janson Junk", "pitcher_id": 676083, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 490, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.23, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.19, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.23, "skill_score": 2.4, "opportunity_score": 49.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 47.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1268, "model_under_probability": 0.8732, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1695, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0427, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0427, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "aggregate_matchup_score": 20.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6842.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 12.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "pitcher_id": 680694, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -225, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.8, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.86, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.8, "skill_score": 19.1, "opportunity_score": 55.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6482, "model_under_probability": 0.3518, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6923, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0441, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0441, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.99, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13080.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "pitcher_id": 592662, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -205, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.64, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.64, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 42.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6275, "model_under_probability": 0.3725, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6721, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0446, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0446, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.44, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.086, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.28, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 78.3, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Wacha", "pitcher_id": 608379, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 300, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "skill_score": 18.8, "opportunity_score": 75.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 12.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2008, "model_under_probability": 0.7992, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.25, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0492, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0492, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30396.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 93.0, "wind_speed_mph": 10.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "pitcher_id": 672456, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 430, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.29, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.1, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.29, "skill_score": 4.3, "opportunity_score": 41.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 52.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1341, "model_under_probability": 0.8659, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1887, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0546, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0546, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9948.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.75, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.1, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Griffin Canning", "pitcher_id": 656288, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 470, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "skill_score": 41.6, "opportunity_score": 23.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 89.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1151, "model_under_probability": 0.8849, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1754, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0603, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0603, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23781.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "pitcher_id": 680694, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -2200, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.8, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.86, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.8, "skill_score": 19.1, "opportunity_score": 55.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8948, "model_under_probability": 0.1052, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9565, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0617, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0617, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.99, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13080.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zebby Matthews", "pitcher_id": 805673, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 235, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.85, "skill_score": 32.4, "opportunity_score": 56.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 40.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2355, "model_under_probability": 0.7645, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2985, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.063, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.063, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9633.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.21, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "pitcher_id": 592662, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.64, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.64, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 42.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7702, "model_under_probability": 0.2298, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0631, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0631, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.44, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.086, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.28, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 78.3, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Kochanowicz", "pitcher_id": 686799, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -250, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.49, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.54, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.49, "skill_score": 11.8, "opportunity_score": 49.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 38.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6502, "model_under_probability": 0.3498, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7143, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0641, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0641, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.996, "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12726.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.73, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 87.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "pitcher_id": 518876, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 300, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.44, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "skill_score": 18.4, "opportunity_score": 66.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 22.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1834, "model_under_probability": 0.8166, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.25, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0666, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0666, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.46, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.115, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27142.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "pitcher_id": 680694, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -580, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.8, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.86, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.8, "skill_score": 19.1, "opportunity_score": 55.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7859, "model_under_probability": 0.2141, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8529, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.067, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.067, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.99, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13080.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "pitcher_id": 592662, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -2000, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.64, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.64, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 42.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8854, "model_under_probability": 0.1146, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9524, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.067, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.067, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.44, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.086, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.28, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 78.3, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Leiter", "pitcher_id": 683004, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 225, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.87, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.24, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.87, "skill_score": 33.1, "opportunity_score": 54.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2381, "model_under_probability": 0.7619, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3077, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0696, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0696, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.94, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14747.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.51, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 93.0, "wind_speed_mph": 10.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Janson Junk", "pitcher_id": 676083, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 225, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.23, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.19, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.23, "skill_score": 2.4, "opportunity_score": 49.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 47.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2362, "model_under_probability": 0.7638, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3077, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0715, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0715, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "aggregate_matchup_score": 20.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6842.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 12.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ranger Suarez", "pitcher_id": 624133, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 154, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.6, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "skill_score": 22.1, "opportunity_score": 32.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 63.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3214, "model_under_probability": 0.6786, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3937, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0723, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0723, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.083, "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27635.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.15, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryce Miller", "pitcher_id": 682243, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -550, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.43, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.33, "skill_score": 46.9, "opportunity_score": 35.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 89.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.7712, "model_under_probability": 0.2288, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8462, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.075, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.075, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.977, "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24988.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.26, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "pitcher_id": 676440, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1400, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.19, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.19, "skill_score": 43.8, "opportunity_score": 40.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 57.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8543, "model_under_probability": 0.1457, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.079, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.079, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.045, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "pitcher_id": 676440, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -400, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.19, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.19, "skill_score": 43.8, "opportunity_score": 40.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 57.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7205, "model_under_probability": 0.2795, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0795, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0795, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.045, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "pitcher_id": 669461, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 640, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.7, "skill_score": 38.7, "opportunity_score": 38.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 63.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.0519, "model_under_probability": 0.9481, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1351, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0832, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0832, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.967, "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "pitcher_id": 666157, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 158, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.35, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "skill_score": 40.1, "opportunity_score": 53.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3028, "model_under_probability": 0.6972, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3876, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0848, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0848, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.69, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "pitcher_id": 672456, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 198, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.29, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.1, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.29, "skill_score": 4.3, "opportunity_score": 41.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 52.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2464, "model_under_probability": 0.7536, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3356, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0892, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0892, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9948.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.75, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.1, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 450, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.21, "skill_score": 20.7, "opportunity_score": 44.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 46.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.087, "model_under_probability": 0.913, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1818, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0948, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0948, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.041, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.1, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Wacha", "pitcher_id": 608379, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 142, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "skill_score": 18.8, "opportunity_score": 75.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 12.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3183, "model_under_probability": 0.6817, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4132, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0949, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0949, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30396.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 93.0, "wind_speed_mph": 10.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Spencer Strider", "pitcher_id": 675911, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 320, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.55, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.84, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.55, "skill_score": 56.7, "opportunity_score": 40.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 56.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 54.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.14, "model_under_probability": 0.86, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2381, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0981, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0981, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.71, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.147, "aggregate_matchup_score": 80.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20559.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.37, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Griffin Canning", "pitcher_id": 656288, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 220, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "skill_score": 41.6, "opportunity_score": 23.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 89.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.206, "model_under_probability": 0.794, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3125, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1065, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1065, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23781.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "pitcher_id": 701542, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -2000, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "skill_score": 38.2, "opportunity_score": 50.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 45.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8448, "model_under_probability": 0.1552, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9524, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1076, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1076, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.069, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15754.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.66, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "pitcher_id": 694819, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -320, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.82, "skill_score": 86.5, "opportunity_score": 53.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.3, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 42.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.6507, "model_under_probability": 0.3493, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7619, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1112, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1112, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.973, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.27, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "pitcher_id": 666157, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -4500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.35, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "skill_score": 40.1, "opportunity_score": 53.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8662, "model_under_probability": 0.1338, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9783, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1121, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1121, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.69, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "pitcher_id": 518876, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 140, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.44, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "skill_score": 18.4, "opportunity_score": 66.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 22.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2968, "model_under_probability": 0.7032, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4167, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1199, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1199, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.46, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.115, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27142.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "pitcher_id": 669461, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 350, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.7, "skill_score": 38.7, "opportunity_score": 38.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 63.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1023, "model_under_probability": 0.8977, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2222, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1199, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1199, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.967, "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Leiter", "pitcher_id": 683004, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -2000, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.87, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.24, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.87, "skill_score": 33.1, "opportunity_score": 54.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8274, "model_under_probability": 0.1726, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9524, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.125, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.125, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.94, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14747.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.51, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 93.0, "wind_speed_mph": 10.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "pitcher_id": 701542, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -205, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "skill_score": 38.2, "opportunity_score": 50.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 45.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5468, "model_under_probability": 0.4532, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6721, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1253, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1253, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.069, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15754.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.66, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zebby Matthews", "pitcher_id": 805673, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -2000, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.85, "skill_score": 32.4, "opportunity_score": 56.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 40.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8256, "model_under_probability": 0.1744, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9524, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1268, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1268, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9633.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.21, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "pitcher_id": 808967, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1450, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.05, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.87, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.05, "skill_score": 39.4, "opportunity_score": 74.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 14.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.8085, "model_under_probability": 0.1915, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9355, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.127, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.127, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.031, "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.08, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "pitcher_id": 701542, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "skill_score": 38.2, "opportunity_score": 50.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 45.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7058, "model_under_probability": 0.2942, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1275, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1275, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.069, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15754.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.66, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ranger Suarez", "pitcher_id": 624133, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1450, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.6, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "skill_score": 22.1, "opportunity_score": 32.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 63.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.8012, "model_under_probability": 0.1988, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9355, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1343, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1343, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.083, "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27635.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.15, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "pitcher_id": 808967, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -205, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.05, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.87, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.05, "skill_score": 39.4, "opportunity_score": 74.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 14.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.5361, "model_under_probability": 0.4639, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6721, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.136, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.136, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.031, "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.08, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Wacha", "pitcher_id": 608379, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1450, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "skill_score": 18.8, "opportunity_score": 75.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 12.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7991, "model_under_probability": 0.2009, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9355, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1364, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1364, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30396.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 93.0, "wind_speed_mph": 10.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "pitcher_id": 808967, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -450, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.05, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.87, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.05, "skill_score": 39.4, "opportunity_score": 74.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 14.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.6787, "model_under_probability": 0.3213, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8182, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1395, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1395, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.031, "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.08, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 3.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Janson Junk", "pitcher_id": 676083, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -300, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.23, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.19, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.23, "skill_score": 2.4, "opportunity_score": 49.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 47.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6033, "model_under_probability": 0.3967, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.75, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1467, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1467, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "aggregate_matchup_score": 20.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6842.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 12.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "pitcher_id": 672456, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -320, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.29, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.1, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.29, "skill_score": 4.3, "opportunity_score": 41.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 52.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6145, "model_under_probability": 0.3855, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7619, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1474, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1474, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9948.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.75, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.1, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zebby Matthews", "pitcher_id": 805673, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -198, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.85, "skill_score": 32.4, "opportunity_score": 56.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 40.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5128, "model_under_probability": 0.4872, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6644, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1516, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1516, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9633.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.21, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "pitcher_id": 518876, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1450, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.44, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "skill_score": 18.4, "opportunity_score": 66.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 22.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7839, "model_under_probability": 0.2161, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9355, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1516, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1516, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.46, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.115, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27142.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 225, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.21, "skill_score": 20.7, "opportunity_score": 44.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 46.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1561, "model_under_probability": 0.8439, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3077, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1516, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1516, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.041, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.1, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zebby Matthews", "pitcher_id": 805673, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -490, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.85, "skill_score": 32.4, "opportunity_score": 56.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 40.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6771, "model_under_probability": 0.3229, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8305, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1534, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1534, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9633.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.21, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Spencer Strider", "pitcher_id": 675911, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 164, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.55, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.84, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.55, "skill_score": 56.7, "opportunity_score": 40.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 56.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 54.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.221, "model_under_probability": 0.779, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3788, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1578, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1578, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.71, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.147, "aggregate_matchup_score": 80.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20559.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.37, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ranger Suarez", "pitcher_id": 624133, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -400, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.6, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "skill_score": 22.1, "opportunity_score": 32.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 63.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6417, "model_under_probability": 0.3583, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1583, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1583, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.083, "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27635.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.15, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Wacha", "pitcher_id": 608379, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -400, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "skill_score": 18.8, "opportunity_score": 75.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 12.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6388, "model_under_probability": 0.3612, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1612, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1612, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30396.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 93.0, "wind_speed_mph": 10.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Leiter", "pitcher_id": 683004, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -550, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.87, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.24, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.87, "skill_score": 33.1, "opportunity_score": 54.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6798, "model_under_probability": 0.3202, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8462, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1664, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1664, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.94, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14747.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.51, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 93.0, "wind_speed_mph": 10.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Leiter", "pitcher_id": 683004, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -215, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.87, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.24, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.87, "skill_score": 33.1, "opportunity_score": 54.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.516, "model_under_probability": 0.484, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6825, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1665, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1665, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.94, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14747.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.51, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 93.0, "wind_speed_mph": 10.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "pitcher_id": 666157, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1000, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.35, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "skill_score": 40.1, "opportunity_score": 53.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7392, "model_under_probability": 0.2608, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9091, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1699, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1699, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.69, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Griffin Canning", "pitcher_id": 656288, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -700, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "skill_score": 41.6, "opportunity_score": 23.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 89.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.7046, "model_under_probability": 0.2954, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.875, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1704, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1704, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23781.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "pitcher_id": 666157, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -330, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.35, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "skill_score": 40.1, "opportunity_score": 53.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5878, "model_under_probability": 0.4122, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7674, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1796, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1796, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.69, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "pitcher_id": 669461, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 172, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.7, "skill_score": 38.7, "opportunity_score": 38.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 63.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1877, "model_under_probability": 0.8123, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3676, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1799, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1799, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.967, "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Spencer Strider", "pitcher_id": 675911, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1800, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.55, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.84, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.55, "skill_score": 56.7, "opportunity_score": 40.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 56.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 54.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7609, "model_under_probability": 0.2391, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9474, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1865, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1865, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.71, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.147, "aggregate_matchup_score": 80.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20559.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.37, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "pitcher_id": 518876, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -420, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.44, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "skill_score": 18.4, "opportunity_score": 66.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 22.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6176, "model_under_probability": 0.3824, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8077, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1901, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1901, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.46, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.115, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27142.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Griffin Canning", "pitcher_id": 656288, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -245, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "skill_score": 41.6, "opportunity_score": 23.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 89.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5148, "model_under_probability": 0.4852, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7101, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1953, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1953, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23781.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -3000, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.21, "skill_score": 20.7, "opportunity_score": 44.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 46.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7566, "model_under_probability": 0.2434, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9677, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2111, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2111, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.041, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.1, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "pitcher_id": 669461, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1000, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.7, "skill_score": 38.7, "opportunity_score": 38.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 63.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6847, "model_under_probability": 0.3153, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9091, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2244, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2244, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.967, "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Spencer Strider", "pitcher_id": 675911, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -580, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.55, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.84, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.55, "skill_score": 56.7, "opportunity_score": 40.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 56.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 54.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6155, "model_under_probability": 0.3845, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8529, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2374, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2374, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.71, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.147, "aggregate_matchup_score": 80.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20559.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.37, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "pitcher_id": 694819, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -290, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.82, "skill_score": 86.5, "opportunity_score": 53.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.3, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 42.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.5043, "model_under_probability": 0.4957, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7436, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2393, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2393, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.973, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.27, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Spencer Strider", "pitcher_id": 675911, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -260, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.55, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.84, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.55, "skill_score": 56.7, "opportunity_score": 40.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 56.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 54.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4655, "model_under_probability": 0.5345, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7222, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2567, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2567, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.71, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.147, "aggregate_matchup_score": 80.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20559.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.37, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "pitcher_id": 669461, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -320, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.7, "skill_score": 38.7, "opportunity_score": 38.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 63.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4908, "model_under_probability": 0.5092, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7619, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2711, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2711, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.967, "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -600, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.21, "skill_score": 20.7, "opportunity_score": 44.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 46.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5808, "model_under_probability": 0.4192, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8571, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2763, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2763, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.041, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.1, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -230, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.21, "skill_score": 20.7, "opportunity_score": 44.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 46.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4068, "model_under_probability": 0.5932, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.697, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2902, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2902, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.041, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.1, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "pitcher_id": 694819, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -250, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.82, "skill_score": 86.5, "opportunity_score": 53.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.3, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 42.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3676, "model_under_probability": 0.6324, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7143, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.3467, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.3467, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.973, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.27, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "pitcher_id": 694819, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -192, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.82, "skill_score": 86.5, "opportunity_score": 53.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.3, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 42.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.253, "model_under_probability": 0.747, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6575, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.4045, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.4045, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.973, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.27, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [ { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Painter", "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Painter", "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Painter", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Painter", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Painter", "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Painter", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Painter", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 8.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski 10+ Strikeouts", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 9.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski 11+ Strikeouts", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 10.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski 12+ Strikeouts", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 11.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jordan Wicks", "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jordan Wicks", "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jordan Wicks", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jordan Wicks", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jordan Wicks", "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jordan Wicks", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jordan Wicks", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Nolan McLean", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Nolan McLean", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Nolan McLean", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Nolan McLean", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Nolan McLean", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Nolan McLean", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Nolan McLean", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Nolan McLean", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Nolan McLean", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 8.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ranger Su\u00e1rez", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ranger Su\u00e1rez", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ranger Su\u00e1rez", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane McClanahan", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane McClanahan", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane McClanahan", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane McClanahan", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane McClanahan", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane McClanahan", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane McClanahan", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane McClanahan", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane McClanahan", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane McClanahan", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 8.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Spencer Miles", "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Spencer Miles", "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Spencer Miles", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Spencer Miles", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Spencer Miles", "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Spencer Miles", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Spencer Miles", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Spencer Miles", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Spencer Strider 10+ Strikeouts", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 9.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tatsuya Imai", "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tatsuya Imai", "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tatsuya Imai", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tatsuya Imai", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tatsuya Imai", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tatsuya Imai", "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tatsuya Imai", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tatsuya Imai", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tatsuya Imai", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." } ] }