Home run props • Tail risk • Price discipline

Home Run Hub

Power is noisy. The board should not be.

A unified home run desk that keeps today's plays, upside tails, market gaps, and saved artifacts in one place. The model stays untouched; this page simply makes the decision surface easier to read.

2026-10-03 HR Plays JSON HR Gaps JSON

Current slate 2026-10-03

0 activated plays

Gap rows 51

Unique hitters 0

Avg gap --

Avg odds --

Older: 2026-10-01

Top Plays

Today's Home Run Plays

The production-facing HR plays stay first on the page. This section uses the same play artifact and the same card treatment as the existing standalone plays page.

No activated HR plays were found for this slate.

High-Upside Board

Asymmetric HR Upside

A separate research board built from the framing-based tail layer. This is not the main HR ranking. It highlights hitters with solid-enough baseline power plus meaningful tail uplift and appealing odds profiles.

High-Upside JSON

High-Upside board not available for this slate.

Snapshot

Daily Snapshot

A quick summary of the live HR plays board using the same saved production artifact.

Total Plays 0

Average Gap --

Unique Hitters 0

Average Odds --

2026-10-01 2026-09-30 2026-09-29 2026-09-27 2026-09-26 2026-09-25 2026-09-24

Market Signals

Today's HR Market Signals

The signal box still comes straight from the HR market-comparison artifact. The first five stay visible by default, with the rest tucked behind a lightweight toggle.

No plus-money HR market signals were found in the saved artifact for this slate.

Full Gap Board

Home Run Market Gap Board

The full board below preserves the existing filters, sorting, and table behavior from the standalone HR gaps page.

Aaron Judge

NYY vs TB | Drew Rasmussen | Slot 2

Strong

Best Gap +8.52%

Best Side Under

1+ HR 18.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +230 / U -270

+8.52%

29.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +240 / U -295

+6.81%

28.2%

BetMGM

0.5

O +235 / U --

-11.34%

29.8%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

William Contreras

MIL vs SD | Robbie Ray | Slot 3

Play

Best Gap +4.72%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +645 / U -905

+4.72%

13.0%

FanDuel

0.5

O +645 / U -960

+4.72%

12.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +640 / U --

+4.63%

13.5%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 109.9

Jake Cronenworth

SD vs MIL | Jacob Misiorowski | Slot 7

Lean

Best Gap +4.14%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 14.1%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +905 / U -1450

+4.14%

9.6%

FanDuel

0.5

O +890 / U -1535

+3.99%

9.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +890 / U --

+3.99%

10.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Giancarlo Stanton

NYY vs TB | Drew Rasmussen | Slot 4

Lean

Best Gap +3.39%

Best Side Under

1+ HR 15.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +345 / U -430

+3.39%

21.7%

FanDuel

0.5

O +360 / U -460

+2.38%

20.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +350 / U --

-6.74%

22.2%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Ozzie Albies

ATL vs LAD | Tarik Skubal | Slot 5

Lean

Best Gap +3.39%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 17.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +615 / U -850

+3.39%

13.5%

FanDuel

0.5

O +615 / U -905

+3.39%

13.5%

BetMGM

0.5

O +610 / U --

+3.30%

14.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Nick Castellanos

SD vs MIL | Jacob Misiorowski | Slot 4

Lean

Best Gap +3.24%

Best Side Over

1+ HR 18.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +575 / U -825

+3.24%

14.2%

DraftKings

0.5

O +570 / U -775

+3.12%

14.4%

BetMGM

0.5

O +570 / U --

+3.12%

14.9%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 109.7

Brice Turang

MIL vs SD | Robbie Ray | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +2.43%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 11.4%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +1010 / U -1710

+2.43%

8.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +990 / U --

+2.27%

9.2%

FanDuel

0.5

O +980 / U -1805

+2.18%

8.9%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 107.6

Jackson Merrill

SD vs MIL | Jacob Misiorowski | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +2.36%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.5%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +520 / U -725

+2.36%

15.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +515 / U -680

+2.23%

15.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +515 / U --

+2.23%

16.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Christian Yelich

MIL vs SD | Robbie Ray | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +0.92%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.1%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +520 / U -725

+0.92%

15.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +515 / U -680

+0.79%

15.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +515 / U --

+0.79%

16.3%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Cody Bellinger

NYY vs TB | Drew Rasmussen | Slot 3

No Play

Best Gap +0.86%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 18.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +470 / U -640

+0.86%

16.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +465 / U --

+0.70%

17.7%

DraftKings

0.5

O +460 / U -600

+0.54%

17.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Fernando Tatis Jr.

SD vs MIL | Jacob Misiorowski | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap +0.54%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.6%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +485 / U -670

+0.54%

16.4%

DraftKings

0.5

O +480 / U -625

+0.39%

16.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +480 / U --

+0.39%

17.2%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Matt Olson

ATL vs LAD | Tarik Skubal | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap +0.05%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.5%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +375 / U -470

+0.05%

20.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +385 / U -500

-0.82%

19.8%

BetMGM

0.5

O +380 / U --

-3.34%

20.8%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Austin Riley

ATL vs LAD | Tarik Skubal | Slot 4

No Play

Best Gap +0.02%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.4%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +475 / U -650

+0.02%

16.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +470 / U --

-0.13%

17.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +465 / U -605

-0.29%

17.1%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Manny Machado

SD vs MIL | Jacob Misiorowski | Slot 2

No Play

Best Gap -0.95%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.7%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +435 / U -580

-0.95%

18.0%

BetMGM

0.5

O +430 / U --

-1.13%

18.9%

DraftKings

0.5

O +425 / U -545

-1.31%

18.4%

Projected | Projected Same Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Jazz Chisholm Jr.

NYY vs TB | Drew Rasmussen | Slot 5

No Play

Best Gap -1.01%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 16.8%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +420 / U -535

-1.01%

18.6%

FanDuel

0.5

O +430 / U -570

-1.83%

18.1%

BetMGM

0.5

O +420 / U --

-2.47%

19.2%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Ronald Acuña Jr.

ATL vs LAD | Tarik Skubal | Slot 1

No Play

Best Gap -1.36%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 17.9%

DraftKings Best Price

0.5

O +400 / U -505

-1.36%

19.3%

FanDuel

0.5

O +410 / U -540

-1.72%

18.9%

BetMGM

0.5

O +400 / U --

-2.11%

20.0%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Ben Rice

NYY vs TB | Drew Rasmussen | Slot 6

No Play

Best Gap -1.59%

Best Side No Play

1+ HR 14.5%

FanDuel Best Price

0.5

O +520 / U -730

-1.59%

15.5%

DraftKings

0.5

O +515 / U -685

-1.72%

15.7%

BetMGM

0.5

O +515 / U --

-1.72%

16.3%

Projected | Projected Opposite Side Neutral | Mix 110.0

Analytics

Historical Review & Analytics

This section keeps the deeper HR history and graded analytics available without crowding the top of the page.

Open HR Gap History & Analytics

History

HR Gap History

Saved Dates 485

Latest Date 2026-10-03

Latest Signals 0

Date	Rows	Recommendations	Signals	Grading
2026-10-03 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	51 matched 0 unmatched	1 / 4 / 10 Strong / Play / Lean	0 -- \| --	-- Signals --
2026-10-01 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	21 matched 0 unmatched	0 / 6 / 3 Strong / Play / Lean	1 Michael Harris II \| 24.0	-- Signals --
2026-09-30 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	114 matched 0 unmatched	1 / 21 / 19 Strong / Play / Lean	0 -- \| --	-- Signals --
2026-09-29 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	72 matched 0 unmatched	0 / 5 / 21 Strong / Play / Lean	0 -- \| --	-- Signals --
2026-09-27 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	249 matched 0 unmatched	2 / 14 / 73 Strong / Play / Lean	0 -- \| --	-- Signals --
2026-09-26 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	183 matched 0 unmatched	0 / 6 / 49 Strong / Play / Lean	0 -- \| --	-- Signals --
2026-09-25 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	315 matched 51 unmatched	1 / 21 / 64 Strong / Play / Lean	0 -- \| --	-- Signals --
2026-09-24 home_run_edges_v1_overlay	174 matched 0 unmatched	0 / 26 / 20 Strong / Play / Lean	3 Corbin Carroll \| 32.7	-- Signals --

Analytics

HR Gap Analytics

Dates 373

Rows / Graded 149661 / 77025

Over Hit Rate 15.8%

Signal Hit Rate 18.4%

Play Tiers

Strong: 44 / 285 | 15.4%

Play: 719 / 4087 | 17.6%

Lean: 1110 / 7449 | 14.9%

Sportsbooks

BetMGM: 618 / 3902 | 15.8%

DraftKings: 595 / 3815 | 15.6%

FanDuel: 660 / 4104 | 16.1%

Odds Buckets

+200 to +299: 223 / 726 | 30.7%

+300 to +399: 446 / 2374 | 18.8%

+400+: 1204 / 8721 | 13.8%