Section III · Betting · 2026-09-26

COL at CWS

Jose Quintana vs Davis Martin · 7:10 PM ET

Scheduled 7:10 PM ET

The question

Does Mithrandir lean COL or CWS?

The run projection leans CWS over COL.

Projected runs: COL 4.2, CWS 4.4. The Mirror win simulation is not published for this game yet.

No win probability Game run projection

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs COL 4.2 · CWS 4.4 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 8.5 · Market 8.5 model minus market +0.0 runs

Run line COL 1.5 · CWS -1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 50.2% · YRFI 49.8% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Palantir 22 Available in 22 player rows

Fangorn 1 Available in 1 player rows

Valinor 1 Available in 1 player rows

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

22 matched rows

Total bases · COL vs CWS Mickey Moniak Over 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P9.4% F-- V--

Model 52.9% Market 29.4% Model-market gap +23.5 pts

Open board

Total bases · COL vs CWS Ezequiel Tovar Over 2.5 · Healthy / active roster

P29.6% F-- V--

Model 52.4% Market 30.8% Model-market gap +21.6 pts

Open board

Total bases · CWS vs COL Austin Hays Over 2.5 · Healthy / active roster

P52.3% F-- V--

Model 52.3% Market 30.8% Model-market gap +21.5 pts

Open board

Total bases · CWS vs COL Colson Montgomery Over 2.5 · Healthy / active roster

P30.7% F-- V--

Model 52.0% Market 31.7% Model-market gap +20.3 pts

Open board

Total bases · COL vs CWS Hunter Goodman Over 2.5 · Healthy / active roster

P32.2% F-- V--

Model 51.6% Market 33.3% Model-market gap +18.3 pts

Open board

Strikeouts · COL vs CWS Jose Quintana Under 3.5 · Healthy / active roster

P65.6% F-- V46.0%

Model 65.6% Market 50.4% Model-market gap +15.2 pts

Open board

Total bases · CWS vs COL Chase Meidroth Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P58.4% F-- V--

Model 43.2% Market 28.6% Model-market gap +14.6 pts

Open board

Total bases · COL vs CWS Jake McCarthy Over 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P17.2% F-- V--

Model 50.4% Market 39.2% Model-market gap +11.2 pts

Open board

Total bases · CWS vs COL Andrew Benintendi Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P46.8% F-- V--

Model 46.8% Market 36.4% Model-market gap +10.4 pts

Open board

Total bases · COL vs CWS Jordan Beck Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P47.3% F-- V--

Model 47.3% Market 37.7% Model-market gap +9.5 pts

Open board

Pitcher outs · CWS vs COL Davis Martin Under 14.5 · Healthy / active roster

P52.3% F-- V--

Model 52.3% Market 46.5% Model-market gap +5.8 pts

Open board

Strikeouts · CWS vs COL Davis Martin Over 4.5 · Healthy / active roster

P46.8% F-- V50.6%

Model 46.8% Market 41.7% Model-market gap +5.0 pts

Open board

Home runs · CWS vs COL Austin Hays Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P12.2% F13.8% V10.3%

Model 15.4% Market 11.7% Model-market gap +3.7 pts

Open board

Total bases · COL vs CWS Brenton Doyle Over 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P25.0% F-- V--

Model 50.1% Market 46.8% Model-market gap +3.3 pts

Open board

Hits · CWS vs COL Kyle Teel Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P98.0% F-- V--

Model 70.7% Market 37.7% Provisional model gap +33.0 pts

Open board

Hits · COL vs CWS Mickey Moniak Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P98.0% F-- V--

Model 66.0% Market 41.7% Provisional model gap +24.4 pts

Open board

Kalshi exchange context

Colorado win contract 31.5% Bid 31c · ask 32c

Chicago WS win contract 68.5% Bid 68c · ask 69c

First inning run: Yes 49.5% Exchange price

Display-only exchange data. Kalshi prices are market context, not advice and not a Mithrandir model lane.