Mithrandir Metrics
COL 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-26

Mickey Moniak

COL · Hitter · bats L · age 28
IN · 3 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupCOL vs CWSDavis Martin
Sample1691.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 1.5
P 9.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 9.4% Market 29.4% Gap +23.5pp
FanDuel 320 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 98.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 98.0% Market -- Gap +24.4pp
FanDuel 480 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.2%
71
Exit velocity89.5
72
Hard-hit%40.9%
62
xBA0.301
32
xSLG0.552
67
xwOBA0.278
24 -50 vs proj
BB%4.9%
13
Bat speed72.8
88
K%28.3%
22 -17 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · LF
58
Arm Strength87.9 · LF
10
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
50
Range Runs0.0 · LF
46
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.1 · LF
65
Bolts1.0 · LF
11
Sprint Speed28.1 · LF
68
SB Success Rate50.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 51.9%
6
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.2%
80
Correct Decisions62.0%
15
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline91
12
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.325 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.291 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.277
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.336 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.358
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.344
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.291 to 0.354
RegressionNegative · -0.054
Opposing pitcherDavis Martin
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-26
Palantir 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Valinor 16023 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.001 14d stable
Palantir 1947 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1443 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Palantir 10429 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.039 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1088 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.053 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)