Mithrandir Metrics
COL 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-26

Jake McCarthy

COL · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 9 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupCOL vs CWSDavis Martin
Sample1844.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 1.5
P 17.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 17.2% Market 39.2% Gap +11.2pp
FanDuel 280 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 98.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 98.0% Market -- Gap +14.7pp
FanDuel 8000 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.1%
38
Exit velocity82.8
7
Hard-hit%28.6%
13
xBA0.333
68
xSLG0.500
51
xwOBA0.321
69
BB%4.7%
12 -15 vs proj
Bat speed67.6
27
K%16.0%
86
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-3.0 · LF
5
Arm Strength86.3 · LF
5
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
50
Range Runs0.5 · LF
53
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs7.0 · LF
98
Bolts107.0 · LF
99
SB Success Rate84.4% · LF
60
Sprint Speed30.0 · LF
99
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.3%
21
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.4%
91
Correct Decisions68.2%
72
Resists FastballwOBA 0.379
8
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
48
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.261 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.292 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.266
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.335 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.400
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.285 to 0.364
RegressionNegative · -0.056
Opposing pitcherDavis Martin
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-26
Palantir 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Valinor 16023 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.001 14d stable
Palantir 1947 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1443 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Palantir 10429 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.039 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1088 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.053 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)