Mithrandir Metrics
CWS 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-26

Colson Montgomery

CWS · Hitter · bats L · age 24
IN · 3 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupCWS vs COLJose Quintana
Sample817.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 2.5
P 30.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 30.7% Market 31.8% Gap +20.3pp
FanDuel 400 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 2.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 2.0% Market -- Gap +4.0pp
FanDuel 3500 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.2%
71
Exit velocity88.6
60
Hard-hit%41.4%
65
xBA0.333
68
xSLG0.651
90
xwOBA0.296
43 -26 vs proj
BB%8.5%
51
Bat speed74.6
96
K%35.7%
3 -19 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · SS
53
Arm Strength86.5 · SS
46
Outs Above Avg3.0 · SS
85
Range Runs8.8 · SS
93
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-2.3 · SS
14
Sprint Speed26.6 · SS
28
SB Success Rate0.0% · SS
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.3%
33
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.5%
45
Correct Decisions65.7%
45
Resists FastballwOBA 0.289
99
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
33
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.256 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.293 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.307
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.373 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.384
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.288 to 0.363
RegressionNegative · -0.021
Opposing pitcherJose Quintana
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-26
Palantir 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Valinor 16023 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.001 14d stable
Palantir 1947 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1443 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Palantir 10429 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.039 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1088 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.053 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)