Section III · Betting · 2026-09-26

CLE at KC

Tanner Bibee vs Michael Wacha · 7:10 PM ET

Scheduled 7:10 PM ET

The question

Does Mithrandir lean CLE or KC?

The run projection leans KC over CLE.

Projected runs: CLE 4.4, KC 4.6. The Mirror win simulation is not published for this game yet.

No win probability Game run projection

Trust boundary The answer above uses the Mirror when a win simulation exists. A projected-runs lean is not labeled as win probability. Exchange prices stay explicitly separate from model output.

Game market read

Projected runs CLE 4.4 · KC 4.6 starter quality + bullpen + team form; lineups not confirmed

Total Model 9.0 · Market 8.5 model minus market +0.5 runs

Run line CLE 1.5 · KC -1.5 Line context only; no published run-line win probability

First inning NRFI 49.0% · YRFI 51.0% model only · rolling first-inning model

Model availability

Availability is counted from real player-market probabilities for this matchup. Missing lanes stay missing.

Palantir 21 Available in 21 player rows

Fangorn 1 Available in 1 player rows

Valinor 1 Available in 1 player rows

Player markets in this game

Rows are joined by team and opponent, filtered for current injured-list status, and keep provisional calibration labels visible.

21 matched rows

Total bases · CLE vs KC Steven Kwan Over 2.5 · Healthy / active roster

P23.8% F-- V--

Model 54.9% Market 25.0% Model-market gap +29.9 pts

Open board

Total bases · KC vs CLE Salvador Perez Over 2.5 · Healthy / active roster

P33.2% F-- V--

Model 51.3% Market 33.9% Model-market gap +17.4 pts

Open board

Total bases · KC vs CLE Bobby Witt Jr. Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P33.9% F-- V--

Model 35.5% Market 18.7% Model-market gap +16.8 pts

Open board

Total bases · CLE vs KC José Ramírez Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P36.0% F-- V--

Model 36.0% Market 19.2% Model-market gap +16.7 pts

Open board

Total bases · KC vs CLE Vinnie Pasquantino Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P37.4% F-- V--

Model 38.8% Market 22.5% Model-market gap +16.4 pts

Open board

Strikeouts · CLE vs KC Tanner Bibee Over 3.5 · Healthy / active roster

P67.2% F-- V52.7%

Model 67.2% Market 51.9% Model-market gap +15.3 pts

Open board

Pitcher outs · CLE vs KC Tanner Bibee Under 14.5 · Healthy / active roster

P51.3% F-- V--

Model 51.3% Market 37.7% Model-market gap +13.6 pts

Open board

Total bases · CLE vs KC Angel Martínez Over 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P50.6% F-- V--

Model 50.6% Market 37.7% Model-market gap +12.9 pts

Open board

Total bases · KC vs CLE Maikel Garcia Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P55.9% F-- V--

Model 45.2% Market 32.8% Model-market gap +12.5 pts

Open board

Pitcher outs · KC vs CLE Michael Wacha Under 17.5 · Healthy / active roster

P52.5% F-- V--

Model 52.5% Market 41.7% Model-market gap +10.8 pts

Open board

Total bases · KC vs CLE Isaac Collins Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P46.9% F-- V--

Model 46.9% Market 36.4% Model-market gap +10.5 pts

Open board

Total bases · CLE vs KC Daniel Schneemann Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P48.1% F-- V--

Model 48.1% Market 40.0% Model-market gap +8.1 pts

Open board

Strikeouts · KC vs CLE Michael Wacha Over 3.5 · Healthy / active roster

P66.6% F-- V52.4%

Model 66.6% Market 58.9% Model-market gap +7.7 pts

Open board

Total bases · CLE vs KC Bo Naylor Over 1.5 · Healthy / active roster

P50.1% F-- V--

Model 50.1% Market 46.2% Model-market gap +3.9 pts

Open board

Home runs · CLE vs KC Daniel Schneemann Over 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P10.5% F8.9% V9.3%

Model 14.5% Market 10.6% Model-market gap +3.9 pts

Open board

Hits · KC vs CLE Michael Massey Under 0.5 · Healthy / active roster

P98.0% F-- V--

Model 71.2% Market 37.0% Provisional model gap +34.1 pts

Open board

Kalshi exchange context

Cleveland win contract 50.5% Bid 50c · ask 51c

Kansas City win contract 49.5% Bid 49c · ask 50c

First inning run: Yes 49.5% Exchange price

Display-only exchange data. Kalshi prices are market context, not advice and not a Mithrandir model lane.