Mithrandir Metrics
KC 2026-09-26 Refreshed Sep 26 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-26

Maikel Garcia

KC · Hitter · bats R · age 26
IN · 9 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupKC vs CLETanner Bibee
Sample1964.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 44.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 44.1% Market 67.2% Gap +12.5pp
FanDuel 130 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 98.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 98.0% Market -- Gap +12.0pp
FanDuel 10000 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.1%
26 -22 vs proj
Exit velocity89.4
70
Hard-hit%41.0%
63 -20 vs proj
xBA0.323
56
xSLG0.437
27
xwOBA0.315
64 -16 vs proj
BB%9.1%
58
Bat speed69.8
51
K%14.9%
89
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.0 · 3B
45
Arm Strength89.3 · 3B
68
Outs Above Avg3.0 · 3B
85
Range Runs3.7 · 3B
84
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.4 · 3B
51
SB Success Rate55.6% · 3B
7
Sprint Speed27.6 · 3B
53
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 75.6%
95
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 31.1%
9
Correct Decisions66.7%
55
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
70
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.278 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.315 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.277
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.331 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.358
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.319
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.311 to 0.374
RegressionNegative · -0.010
Opposing pitcherTanner Bibee
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-26
Palantir 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Fangorn 21711 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Valinor 16023 props Brier 0.114 ECE 0.001 14d stable
Palantir 1947 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1443 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Palantir 10429 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.039 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 850 props Brier 0.166 ECE 0.036 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 1088 props Brier 0.255 ECE 0.053 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)