Projections
Daily Strikeout Props Board
A site-facing read of the saved strikeout props artifact. The page keeps the underlying daily strikeout model intact, then layers in bounded lineup and pitch-matchup context to produce an adjusted mean and threshold ladder.
Overview
Props Snapshot
The page reads directly from the saved props artifact and keeps the public view centered on adjusted strikeout expectations and threshold probabilities.
Leaderboard
Matchup-Adjusted Strikeout Board
| Pitcher | Matchup | Base K | Adj K | Delta | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Joe Ryan
Probable | projected
|
MIN vs TEX
Score 67.6 | Lineup K 6.14
|
5.66 | 5.85 | +0.19 | 79.1% | 65.5% | 50.8% | 37.2% | 25.7% |
Bryan Woo
Probable | projected
|
SEA vs BAL
Score 66.3 | Lineup K 6.05
|
5.09 | 5.50 | +0.41 | 75.6% | 60.9% | 45.8% | 32.4% | 21.5% |
Aaron Nola
Probable | projected
|
PHI vs NYM
Score 48.1 | Lineup K 5.71
|
5.30 | 5.44 | +0.14 | 74.9% | 60.0% | 44.9% | 31.5% | 20.8% |
Sonny Gray
Probable | projected
|
BOS vs TOR
Score 62.1 | Lineup K 5.82
|
4.68 | 5.13 | +0.45 | 71.3% | 55.6% | 40.3% | 27.3% | 17.4% |
Jack Leiter
Probable | projected
|
TEX vs MIN
Score 41.7 | Lineup K 5.13
|
5.24 | 5.12 | -0.12 | 71.2% | 55.4% | 40.1% | 27.2% | 17.3% |
Shane Baz
Probable | projected
|
BAL vs SEA
Score 44.9 | Lineup K 5.65
|
4.65 | 4.98 | +0.33 | 69.4% | 53.3% | 38.0% | 25.3% | 15.8% |
Sean Manaea
Probable | projected
|
NYM vs PHI
Score 60.2 | Lineup K 5.67
|
4.46 | 4.92 | +0.46 | 68.7% | 52.4% | 37.1% | 24.5% | 15.2% |
Ryan Weathers
Probable | projected
|
NYY vs CWS
Score 43.7 | Lineup K 4.32
|
5.25 | 4.85 | -0.40 | 67.7% | 51.3% | 36.0% | 23.5% | 14.4% |
Noah Cameron
Probable | projected
|
KC vs STL
Score 45.9 | Lineup K 4.89
|
4.38 | 4.54 | +0.16 | 63.3% | 46.3% | 31.2% | 19.6% | 11.5% |
Landen Roupp
Probable | projected
|
SF vs ATL
Score 29.1 | Lineup K 4.40
|
4.26 | 4.24 | -0.02 | 58.6% | 41.2% | 26.6% | 16.0% | 8.9% |
Sean Burke
Probable | projected
|
CWS vs NYY
Score 30.4 | Lineup K 4.99
|
3.67 | 4.01 | +0.34 | 54.7% | 37.2% | 23.2% | 13.4% | 7.2% |
Martín Pérez
Probable | projected
|
ATL vs SF
Score 28.4 | Lineup K 4.08
|
3.48 | 3.63 | +0.15 | 47.8% | 30.5% | 17.8% | 9.6% | 4.8% |
Matthew Liberatore
Probable | projected
|
STL vs KC
Score 22.0 | Lineup K 3.48
|
3.45 | 3.38 | -0.07 | 42.9% | 26.2% | 14.5% | 7.4% | 3.5% |
Methodology
How V1 Builds The Board
Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.
Baseline
Daily Strikeout Model First
The baseline mean comes from the existing pitcher strikeout projection system, unchanged from the saved daily strikeout artifact.
Adjustment
Bounded Matchup Overlay
Public context is limited to the matchup score, lineup expected strikeouts, lineup confidence, and pitch-mix sample size. The adjustment stays modest and explainable instead of replacing the baseline model.
Probabilities
Threshold Ladder
The 4+ through 8+ probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using the artifact's deterministic negative binomial style count layer.
Later
Ready For Market Comparison
This page can expand cleanly into sportsbook line comparison later by adding line, price, fair probability, and fair-price gap columns next to the existing baseline, adjusted mean, and threshold ladder.