{ "date": "2026-06-18", "generated_at": "2026-06-18T08:02:07.315988", "projection_type": "strikeout_props", "model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "assumptions": { "baseline_projection_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "baseline_model_version": "pitcher_k_v1_regular_16f", "matchup_projection_type": "matchups", "matchup_model_version": "matchup_engine_v1_1_deterministic", "methodology": "Baseline strikeout projections from the pitcher strikeout model are adjusted with a bounded matchup multiplier derived from lineup-level strikeout pressure, projected batting-order context, and pitch-matchup interaction. Threshold probabilities are generated from the matchup-adjusted mean using a deterministic negative-binomial-style count model with empirically estimated overdispersion.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "variance_formula": "variance = mean + alpha * mean^2", "thresholds": [ 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 ] }, "adjustment_bounds": { "matchup_ratio_blend": 0.35, "score_multiplier_range": [ 0.94, 1.06 ], "final_multiplier_range": [ 0.85, 1.15 ] } }, "projected_start_count": 13, "skipped_start_count": 4, "predictions": [ { "date": "2026-06-18", "game_pk": 822889, "pitcher_id": 657746, "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "team_id": 142, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_team_id": 140, "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 96.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 5.85, "skill_score": 52.9, "opportunity_score": 37.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 79.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.66, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.85, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.044, "prob_4_plus": 0.7906, "prob_5_plus": 0.6545, "prob_6_plus": 0.5085, "prob_7_plus": 0.3718, "prob_8_plus": 0.2567, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.6, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.14, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29998.0, "temperature_f": 96.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.066, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "matchup_score": 78.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 127.2, "expected_contact_quality": 78.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Danny Jansen", "matchup_score": 78.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 125.9, "expected_contact_quality": 65.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Jung", "matchup_score": 75.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 138.0, "expected_contact_quality": 97.5 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2184 } }, { "date": "2026-06-18", "game_pk": 823125, "pitcher_id": 693433, "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "team_id": 136, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_team_id": 110, "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 72.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.5, "skill_score": 30.6, "opportunity_score": 58.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.09, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.5, "adjustment_delta": 0.41, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.08, "prob_4_plus": 0.7557, "prob_5_plus": 0.6087, "prob_6_plus": 0.4582, "prob_7_plus": 0.3235, "prob_8_plus": 0.2151, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.3, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.05, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "temperature_f": 72.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.899, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Ryan Mountcastle", "matchup_score": 80.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 131.6, "expected_contact_quality": 68.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Colton Cowser", "matchup_score": 76.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 137.2, "expected_contact_quality": 93.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "matchup_score": 72.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 147.6, "expected_contact_quality": 112.2 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.23 } }, { "date": "2026-06-18", "game_pk": 823448, "pitcher_id": 605400, "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "team_id": 143, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_team_id": 121, "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 82.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.44, "skill_score": 37.9, "opportunity_score": 50.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 47.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.3, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.44, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.026, "prob_4_plus": 0.7492, "prob_5_plus": 0.6004, "prob_6_plus": 0.4494, "prob_7_plus": 0.3152, "prob_8_plus": 0.2082, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.71, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "temperature_f": 82.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.109, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Luis Robert Jr.", "matchup_score": 67.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 139.0, "expected_contact_quality": 109.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Brett Baty", "matchup_score": 58.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 117.1, "expected_contact_quality": 101.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Alvarez", "matchup_score": 57.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.9, "expected_contact_quality": 113.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.219 } }, { "date": "2026-06-18", "game_pk": 824748, "pitcher_id": 543243, "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "team_id": 111, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_team_id": 141, "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 74.7, "wind_speed_mph": 17.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "skill_score": 16.4, "opportunity_score": 21.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 90.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.13, "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.096, "prob_4_plus": 0.7132, "prob_5_plus": 0.5558, "prob_6_plus": 0.4028, "prob_7_plus": 0.2728, "prob_8_plus": 0.1737, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "temperature_f": 74.7, "wind_speed_mph": 17.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.048, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "George Springer", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Anthony Santander", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jes\u00fas S\u00e1nchez", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Davis Schneider", "matchup_score": 79.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 146.9, "expected_contact_quality": 99.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "matchup_score": 77.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 124.9, "expected_contact_quality": 76.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Andr\u00e9s Gim\u00e9nez", "matchup_score": 64.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.4, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.1943 } }, { "date": "2026-06-18", "game_pk": 822889, "pitcher_id": 683004, "pitcher_name": "Jack Leiter", "team_id": 140, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_team_id": 142, "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 96.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 5.12, "skill_score": 33.1, "opportunity_score": 63.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 34.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.24, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.12, "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.986, "prob_4_plus": 0.712, "prob_5_plus": 0.5543, "prob_6_plus": 0.4013, "prob_7_plus": 0.2715, "prob_8_plus": 0.1726, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14747.0, "temperature_f": 96.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.066, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "matchup_score": 56.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 111.5, "expected_contact_quality": 79.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "matchup_score": 55.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.7, "expected_contact_quality": 109.7 }, { "hitter_name": "Ryan Jeffers", "matchup_score": 46.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 108.6, "expected_contact_quality": 96.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2319 } }, { "date": "2026-06-18", "game_pk": 823125, "pitcher_id": 669358, "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "team_id": 110, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_team_id": 136, "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 72.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.98, "skill_score": 21.8, "opportunity_score": 69.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 21.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.65, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.98, "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.071, "prob_4_plus": 0.6943, "prob_5_plus": 0.5331, "prob_6_plus": 0.3799, "prob_7_plus": 0.2527, "prob_8_plus": 0.1578, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.65, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18414.0, "temperature_f": 72.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "in", "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.899, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rob Refsnyder", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Victor Robles", "matchup_score": 57.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Luke Raley", "matchup_score": 55.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 141.9, "expected_contact_quality": 136.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "matchup_score": 54.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.7, "expected_contact_quality": 110.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.251 } }, { "date": "2026-06-18", "game_pk": 823448, "pitcher_id": 640455, "pitcher_name": "Sean Manaea", "team_id": 121, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_team_id": 143, "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 82.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "skill_score": 55.4, "opportunity_score": 15.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 100.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.46, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.92, "adjustment_delta": 0.46, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.104, "prob_4_plus": 0.6865, "prob_5_plus": 0.5238, "prob_6_plus": 0.3707, "prob_7_plus": 0.2447, "prob_8_plus": 0.1516, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.2, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.67, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19201.0, "temperature_f": 82.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.109, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "matchup_score": 72.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 140.9, "expected_contact_quality": 94.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "matchup_score": 70.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 126.6, "expected_contact_quality": 83.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Edmundo Sosa", "matchup_score": 69.2, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.1, "expected_contact_quality": 70.3 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2241 } }, { "date": "2026-06-18", "game_pk": 823533, "pitcher_id": 677960, "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "team_id": 147, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_team_id": 145, "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 78.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "skill_score": 38.6, "opportunity_score": 59.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.85, "adjustment_delta": -0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.933, "prob_4_plus": 0.6771, "prob_5_plus": 0.5128, "prob_6_plus": 0.3599, "prob_7_plus": 0.2355, "prob_8_plus": 0.1445, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.7, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "temperature_f": 78.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.14, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Kyle Teel", "matchup_score": 56.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 109.4, "expected_contact_quality": 75.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Hays", "matchup_score": 50.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 102.8, "expected_contact_quality": 82.9 }, { "hitter_name": "Brooks Baldwin", "matchup_score": 49.4, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 98.5, "expected_contact_quality": 76.1 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2341 } }, { "date": "2026-06-18", "game_pk": 824098, "pitcher_id": 702070, "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "team_id": 118, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_team_id": 138, "opponent_abbr": "STL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.54, "skill_score": 19.4, "opportunity_score": 54.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 46.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.38, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.54, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "prob_4_plus": 0.6329, "prob_5_plus": 0.4627, "prob_6_plus": 0.3122, "prob_7_plus": 0.1957, "prob_8_plus": 0.1149, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.9, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.89, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10820.0, "temperature_f": 66.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.995, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ram\u00f3n Ur\u00edas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Nolan Gorman", "matchup_score": 61.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.4, "expected_contact_quality": 106.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Jordan Walker", "matchup_score": 58.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 113.3, "expected_contact_quality": 87.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "matchup_score": 57.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.216 } }, { "date": "2026-06-18", "game_pk": 824911, "pitcher_id": 694738, "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "team_id": 137, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_team_id": 144, "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 4.24, "skill_score": 39.1, "opportunity_score": 56.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.26, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.24, "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.995, "prob_4_plus": 0.5858, "prob_5_plus": 0.412, "prob_6_plus": 0.2663, "prob_7_plus": 0.1596, "prob_8_plus": 0.0894, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 29.1, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10559.0, "temperature_f": 71.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.011, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Sean Murphy", "matchup_score": 53.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 114.9, "expected_contact_quality": 87.1 }, { "hitter_name": "Ha-Seong Kim", "matchup_score": 37.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 82.6, "expected_contact_quality": 62.2 }, { "hitter_name": "Michael Harris II", "matchup_score": 33.8, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 91.6, "expected_contact_quality": 97.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2239 } }, { "date": "2026-06-18", "game_pk": 823533, "pitcher_id": 680732, "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "team_id": 145, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_team_id": 147, "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 78.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "expected_strikeouts": 4.01, "skill_score": 20.7, "opportunity_score": 53.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 44.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.01, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "prob_4_plus": 0.5469, "prob_5_plus": 0.3721, "prob_6_plus": 0.232, "prob_7_plus": 0.1338, "prob_8_plus": 0.072, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.99, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "temperature_f": 78.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.9, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "environment_k_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.14, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Caballero", "matchup_score": 57.0, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 116.7, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "matchup_score": 43.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 136.2, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 }, { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "matchup_score": 35.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 122.7, "expected_contact_quality": 150.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2282 } }, { "date": "2026-06-18", "game_pk": 824911, "pitcher_id": 527048, "pitcher_name": "Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez", "team_id": 144, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_team_id": 137, "opponent_abbr": "SF", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 71.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.63, "skill_score": 19.3, "opportunity_score": 48.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 53.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.63, "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.042, "prob_4_plus": 0.4776, "prob_5_plus": 0.3054, "prob_6_plus": 0.1781, "prob_7_plus": 0.0957, "prob_8_plus": 0.0479, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.4, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.08, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18249.0, "temperature_f": 71.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 1.011, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Tyler Fitzgerald", "matchup_score": 50.5, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 104.5, "expected_contact_quality": 73.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Casey Schmitt", "matchup_score": 31.7, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 83.2, "expected_contact_quality": 90.5 }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Arraez", "matchup_score": 31.3, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 41.6, "expected_contact_quality": 60.0 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.2357 } }, { "date": "2026-06-18", "game_pk": 824098, "pitcher_id": 669461, "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "team_id": 138, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_team_id": 118, "opponent_abbr": "KC", "starter_confidence": "probable", "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "temperature_f": 66.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "expected_strikeouts": 3.38, "skill_score": 38.7, "opportunity_score": 41.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.1, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 62.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.45, "matchup_adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.38, "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.981, "prob_4_plus": 0.4291, "prob_5_plus": 0.2619, "prob_6_plus": 0.1452, "prob_7_plus": 0.0741, "prob_8_plus": 0.0351, "context": { "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.48, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "temperature_f": 66.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "out", "environment_summary": "neutral", "environment_k_multiplier": 1.0, "environment_hr_multiplier": 0.995, "projected_batting_order_top_5": [ { "spot": 1, "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "weight": 1.08 }, { "spot": 2, "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "weight": 1.05 }, { "spot": 3, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "weight": 1.03 }, { "spot": 4, "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "weight": 1.02 }, { "spot": 5, "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "weight": 1.0 } ], "top_hitter_matchups": [ { "hitter_name": "Starling Marte", "matchup_score": 37.9, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 81.8, "expected_contact_quality": 75.6 }, { "hitter_name": "Isaac Collins", "matchup_score": 36.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 79.6, "expected_contact_quality": 72.3 }, { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "matchup_score": 31.6, "expected_strikeout_likelihood": 86.7, "expected_contact_quality": 96.8 } ], "opponent_team_k_rate": 0.199 } } ], "skipped_starts": [ { "pitcher_id": 702056, "pitcher_name": "Trey Yesavage", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 675660, "pitcher_name": "Shane Drohan", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 800048, "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." }, { "pitcher_id": 695611, "pitcher_name": "Gage Jump", "reason": "No lineup-level matchup context was available for this starter." } ] }