Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-09-13 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-09-13

51 matched props 26 unmatched

Newer: 2026-09-14 Older: 2026-09-12

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 51

Grouped Pitchers 18

Books 3

Unmatched Inputs 26

Projection Source strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder

2026-09-26 2026-09-25 2026-09-24 2026-09-23 2026-09-22 2026-09-21 2026-09-20 2026-09-19

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-09-13 | Raw sportsbook rows: 51 | Grouped pitcher entries: 18 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-09-13/strikeout_edges_2026-09-13.json

Cal Quantrill

TEX vs AZ | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 2.94

Strongest Gap Under +20.53%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O +121 / U -154

Over gap -26.41% / Under gap +20.53%

Under +20.53%

BetMGM

3.5

O -150 / U +110

Over gap -26.01% / Under gap +18.39%

Under +18.39%

FanDuel

2.5

O -160 / U +124

Over gap -7.00% / Under gap +0.82%

No Play

Model O 18.8% | U 81.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 11.6

Grant Holmes

ATL vs PHI | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.06

Strongest Gap Over +19.95%

Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

3.5

O -102 / U -125

Over gap +19.95% / Under gap -26.01%

Over +19.95%

DraftKings

3.5

O -110 / U -117

Over gap +18.07% / Under gap -24.37%

Over +18.07%

BetMGM

3.5

O -118 / U -110

Over gap +16.32% / Under gap -22.83%

Over +16.32%

Model O 70.5% | U 29.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 52.3

Noah Cameron

KC vs BOS | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.30

Strongest Gap Under +16.90%

Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

5.5

O -105 / U -125

Over gap -23.68% / Under gap +16.90%

Under +16.90%

DraftKings

5.5

O +104 / U -132

Over gap -21.48% / Under gap +15.56%

Under +15.56%

FanDuel

4.5

O -172 / U +134

Over gap -21.02% / Under gap +15.04%

Under +15.04%

Model O 27.5% | U 72.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 38.6

Dylan Cease

TOR vs BAL | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 6.92

Strongest Gap Under +16.25%

Best Line 8.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

8.5

O -105 / U -125

Over gap -23.03% / Under gap +16.25%

Under +16.25%

FanDuel

8.5

O +100 / U -128

Over gap -21.81% / Under gap +15.67%

Under +15.67%

DraftKings

8.5

O +105 / U -132

Over gap -20.59% / Under gap +14.91%

Under +14.91%

Model O 28.2% | U 71.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 67.6

Cam Schlittler

NYY vs NYM | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.97

Strongest Gap Under +15.73%

Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

6.5

O -170 / U +120

Over gap -24.14% / Under gap +15.73%

Under +15.73%

FanDuel

6.5

O -132 / U +104

Over gap -18.08% / Under gap +12.16%

Under +12.16%

BetMGM

7.5

O +115 / U -155

Over gap -19.38% / Under gap +12.09%

Under +12.09%

Model O 38.8% | U 61.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 65.3

Michael McGreevy

STL vs CWS | 1 books

Strong

Adj K 3.40

Strongest Gap Under +12.25%

Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

3.5

O -164 / U +125

Over gap -18.81% / Under gap +12.25%

Under +12.25%

Model O 43.3% | U 56.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 35.7

Matthew Boyd

CHC vs PIT | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 5.05

Strongest Gap Under +12.16%

Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

5.5

O -140 / U +105

Over gap -19.27% / Under gap +12.16%

Under +12.16%

DraftKings

5.5

O -127 / U -101

Over gap -16.89% / Under gap +10.69%

Under +10.69%

FanDuel

5.5

O -125 / U -102

Over gap -16.50% / Under gap +10.44%

Under +10.44%

Model O 39.1% | U 60.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 54.9

Tanner Bibee

CLE vs MIN | 2 books

Strong

Adj K 5.06

Strongest Gap Over +9.36%

Best Line 3.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

3.5

O -157 / U +123

Over gap +9.36% / Under gap -15.29%

Over +9.36%

FanDuel

3.5

O -164 / U +128

Over gap +8.33% / Under gap -14.31%

Over +8.33%

Model O 70.5% | U 29.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 60.3

Hayden Wesneski

HOU vs TB | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.13

Strongest Gap Over +8.20%

Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

3.5

O +106 / U -136

Over gap +8.20% / Under gap -14.37%

Over +8.20%

DraftKings

3.5

O -102 / U -124

Over gap +6.24% / Under gap -12.10%

Over +6.24%

BetMGM

3.5

O -105 / U -125

Over gap +5.52% / Under gap -12.30%

Over +5.52%

Model O 56.7% | U 43.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 42.8

Eury Pérez

MIA vs LAD | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.74

Strongest Gap Under +8.07%

Best Line 5.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

5.5

O +107 / U -136

Over gap -14.01% / Under gap +8.07%

Under +8.07%

FanDuel

5.5

O +106 / U -136

Over gap -14.24% / Under gap +8.07%

Under +8.07%

BetMGM

5.5

O +110 / U -150

Over gap -13.32% / Under gap +5.70%

Under +5.70%

Model O 34.3% | U 65.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 49.7

Trevor Rogers

BAL vs TOR | 3 books

Strong

Adj K 4.48

Strongest Gap Under +6.19%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O -136 / U +106

Over gap -12.36% / Under gap +6.19%

Under +6.19%

DraftKings

4.5

O -128 / U +102

Over gap -10.87% / Under gap +5.23%

Under +5.23%

BetMGM

4.5

O -125 / U -105

Over gap -10.29% / Under gap +3.51%

Under +3.51%

Model O 45.3% | U 54.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 41.0

Logan Webb

SF vs SD | 3 books

Play

Adj K 5.73

Strongest Gap Over +4.24%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O -148 / U +116

Over gap +4.24% / Under gap -10.22%

Over +4.24%

BetMGM

4.5

O -150 / U +110

Over gap +3.92% / Under gap -11.54%

Over +3.92%

DraftKings

4.5

O -155 / U +123

Over gap +3.14% / Under gap -8.76%

Over +3.14%

Model O 63.9% | U 36.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 51.5

Emmet Sheehan

LAD vs MIA | 3 books

Play

Adj K 4.99

Strongest Gap Under +3.53%

Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM

BetMGM Best Price Gap

5.5

O +105 / U -140

Over gap -10.64% / Under gap +3.53%

Under +3.53%

FanDuel

5.5

O +116 / U -148

Over gap -8.16% / Under gap +2.18%

Under +2.18%

DraftKings

5.5

O +117 / U -150

Over gap -7.94% / Under gap +1.86%

Under +1.86%

Model O 38.1% | U 61.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 67.0

Eduardo Rodriguez

AZ vs TEX | 3 books

Lean

Adj K 4.76

Strongest Gap Under +2.76%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O -146 / U +111

Over gap -9.50% / Under gap +2.76%

Under +2.76%

FanDuel

4.5

O -132 / U +104

Over gap -7.05% / Under gap +1.13%

No Play

BetMGM

4.5

O -120 / U -110

Over gap -4.70% / Under gap -2.23%

No Play

Model O 49.9% | U 50.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 44.4

Nick Pivetta

SD vs SF | 3 books

Lean

Adj K 5.50

Strongest Gap Over +2.71%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O -139 / U +106

Over gap +2.71% / Under gap -9.41%

Over +2.71%

FanDuel

4.5

O -142 / U +112

Over gap +2.19% / Under gap -8.04%

Over +2.19%

BetMGM

4.5

O -160 / U +120

Over gap -0.67% / Under gap -6.32%

No Play

Model O 60.9% | U 39.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 64.0

Bryce Miller

SEA vs ATH | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 4.54

Strongest Gap No Play -0.82%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O -104 / U -120

Over gap -4.71% / Under gap -0.82%

No Play

BetMGM

4.5

O -105 / U -125

Over gap -4.95% / Under gap -1.83%

No Play

FanDuel

4.5

O +104 / U -132

Over gap -2.75% / Under gap -3.17%

No Play

Model O 46.3% | U 53.7% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 53.9

Jacob Lopez

ATH vs SEA | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 5.01

Strongest Gap No Play -1.85%

Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel

FanDuel Best Price Gap

4.5

O -138 / U +108

Over gap -4.21% / Under gap -1.85%

No Play

DraftKings

4.5

O -137 / U +106

Over gap -4.04% / Under gap -2.31%

No Play

BetMGM

4.5

O -135 / U +100

Over gap -3.68% / Under gap -3.77%

No Play

Model O 53.8% | U 46.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 53.1

Jackson Jobe

DET vs COL | 3 books

No Play

Adj K 4.29

Strongest Gap No Play -2.37%

Best Line 4.5 at DraftKings

DraftKings Best Price Gap

4.5

O +122 / U -152

Over gap -3.00% / Under gap -2.37%

No Play

FanDuel

3.5

O -170 / U +132

Over gap -3.57% / Under gap -2.49%

No Play

BetMGM

4.5

O +115 / U -155

Over gap -4.46% / Under gap -2.83%

No Play

Model O 42.0% | U 58.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 37.6

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.