Mithrandir

Metrics OBS.
SEA 23:14 UTC Ingest OK
Home / Betting / Strikeout Market Gaps

Betting

Strikeout Market Gaps

A market-comparison board for daily strikeout prices. This page keeps the projection model separate, then compares saved strikeout probabilities against sportsbook lines and odds to surface fair-price gaps, push risk, and no-signal outcomes.

2026-07-07 Open JSON Artifact Open CSV Artifact

Betting Slate

2026-07-07
111 matched props 67 unmatched
Newer: 2026-07-08 Older: 2026-07-06

Overview

Betting Snapshot

Saved market-comparison artifacts only. The board compares the existing strikeout-props model against sportsbook inputs without recomputing projections on page load.

Matched Props 111
Grouped Pitchers 16
Books 3
Unmatched Inputs 67
Projection Source strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay
2026-07-17 2026-07-16 2026-07-15 2026-07-14 2026-07-13 2026-07-12 2026-07-11 2026-07-10

Market Gaps

Strikeout Market Gap Board

Target date: 2026-07-07 | Raw sportsbook rows: 111 | Grouped pitcher entries: 16 | Artifact: /opt/mithrandir/app/outputs/betting/strikeout_edges/2026-07-07/strikeout_edges_2026-07-07.json
Jacob Misiorowski headshot

Jacob Misiorowski
MIL vs STL | 8 books
Strong
Adj K 5.92
Strongest Gap Under +22.98%
Best Line 7.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
7.5
O -124 / U -102
Over gap -28.84% / Under gap +22.98%
Under +22.98%
FanDuel
7.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap -26.53% / Under gap +20.43%
Under +20.43%
FanDuel
7.5
O -113 / U -113
Over gap -26.53% / Under gap +20.43%
Under +20.43%
BetMGM
7.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -24.70% / Under gap +17.92%
Under +17.92%
FanDuel
8.5
O +164 / U --
Over gap -20.38% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -1600 / U --
Over gap -27.81% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -530 / U --
Over gap -32.30% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O -260 / U --
Over gap -34.08% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 26.5% | U 73.5% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 73.2
Jacob deGrom headshot

Jacob deGrom
TEX vs LAA | 3 books
Strong
Adj K 6.05
Strongest Gap Under +21.15%
Best Line 7.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
7.5
O -123 / U -103
Over gap -27.05% / Under gap +21.15%
Under +21.15%
BetMGM
7.5
O -130 / U -105
Over gap -28.41% / Under gap +20.67%
Under +20.67%
FanDuel
7.5
O -104 / U -122
Over gap -22.87% / Under gap +16.94%
Under +16.94%
Model O 28.1% | U 71.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 79.9
Andrew Abbott headshot

Andrew Abbott
CIN vs PHI | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.39
Strongest Gap Under +15.53%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O -105 / U -125
Over gap -22.31% / Under gap +15.53%
Under +15.53%
FanDuel
5.5
O +120 / U -154
Over gap -16.54% / Under gap +10.46%
Under +10.46%
FanDuel
5.5
O +120 / U -154
Over gap -16.54% / Under gap +10.46%
Under +10.46%
DraftKings
5.5
O +122 / U -157
Over gap -16.14% / Under gap +10.00%
Under +10.00%
FanDuel
7.5
O +520 / U --
Over gap -5.96% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +250 / U --
Over gap -10.83% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1800 / U --
Over gap -16.92% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -186 / U --
Over gap -21.28% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -480 / U --
Over gap -21.78% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 28.9% | U 71.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 46.1
Max Meyer headshot

Max Meyer
MIA vs SEA | 10 books
Strong
Adj K 5.02
Strongest Gap Under +14.20%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O +118 / U -150
Over gap -20.07% / Under gap +14.20%
Under +14.20%
BetMGM
5.5
O -150 / U +110
Over gap -21.40% / Under gap +13.78%
Under +13.78%
FanDuel
6.5
O +124 / U -160
Over gap -18.84% / Under gap +12.66%
Under +12.66%
FanDuel
6.5
O +124 / U -160
Over gap -18.84% / Under gap +12.66%
Under +12.66%
FanDuel
8.5
O +520 / U --
Over gap -6.52% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +250 / U --
Over gap -12.37% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -4000 / U --
Over gap -13.50% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1000 / U --
Over gap -20.97% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -170 / U --
Over gap -24.36% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -390 / U --
Over gap -25.67% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 25.8% | U 74.2% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 35.6
Taj Bradley headshot

Taj Bradley
MIN vs CLE | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.31
Strongest Gap Under +12.82%
Best Line 6.5 at DraftKings
DraftKings Best Price Gap
6.5
O +106 / U -135
Over gap -18.81% / Under gap +12.82%
Under +12.82%
BetMGM
5.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -17.78% / Under gap +10.49%
Under +10.49%
FanDuel
6.5
O +120 / U -154
Over gap -15.72% / Under gap +9.64%
Under +9.64%
FanDuel
6.5
O +120 / U -154
Over gap -15.72% / Under gap +9.64%
Under +9.64%
FanDuel
8.5
O +480 / U --
Over gap -5.33% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +250 / U --
Over gap -9.22% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -1200 / U --
Over gap -18.85% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -180 / U --
Over gap -21.29% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -430 / U --
Over gap -22.92% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 29.7% | U 70.3% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 59.0
Paul Skenes headshot

Paul Skenes
PIT vs ATL | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.98
Strongest Gap Under +12.02%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O -132 / U +104
Over gap -17.94% / Under gap +12.02%
Under +12.02%
FanDuel
6.5
O -132 / U +104
Over gap -17.94% / Under gap +12.02%
Under +12.02%
DraftKings
6.5
O -133 / U +104
Over gap -18.12% / Under gap +12.02%
Under +12.02%
BetMGM
6.5
O -110 / U -120
Over gap -13.42% / Under gap +6.49%
Under +6.49%
FanDuel
8.5
O +290 / U --
Over gap -7.55% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +144 / U --
Over gap -13.73% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -3500 / U --
Over gap -16.98% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -800 / U --
Over gap -21.85% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -330 / U --
Over gap -24.08% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 39.0% | U 61.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 70.9
Tarik Skubal headshot

Tarik Skubal
DET vs ATH | 5 books
Strong
Adj K 7.07
Strongest Gap Under +11.78%
Best Line 8.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
8.5
O +110 / U -140
Over gap -17.73% / Under gap +11.78%
Under +11.78%
FanDuel
4.5
O -4000 / U --
Over gap -19.39% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O -1100 / U --
Over gap -25.52% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O -205 / U --
Over gap -26.37% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O -430 / U --
Over gap -27.87% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 29.9% | U 70.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 86.7
J.t. Ginn headshot

J.t. Ginn
ATH vs DET | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 4.67
Strongest Gap Under +6.00%
Best Line 5.5 at BetMGM
BetMGM Best Price Gap
5.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap -13.29% / Under gap +6.00%
Under +6.00%
DraftKings
5.5
O +127 / U -162
Over gap -10.83% / Under gap +4.95%
Under +4.95%
FanDuel
5.5
O +126 / U -162
Over gap -11.03% / Under gap +4.95%
Under +4.95%
FanDuel
5.5
O +126 / U -162
Over gap -11.03% / Under gap +4.95%
Under +4.95%
FanDuel
7.5
O +560 / U --
Over gap -2.45% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +260 / U --
Over gap -6.56% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1600 / U --
Over gap -13.29% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -180 / U --
Over gap -15.89% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -460 / U --
Over gap -16.95% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 33.2% | U 66.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 58.9
Shane Baz headshot

Shane Baz
BAL vs CHC | 9 books
Strong
Adj K 5.05
Strongest Gap Under +5.38%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O -102 / U -125
Over gap -11.44% / Under gap +5.38%
Under +5.38%
FanDuel
5.5
O -102 / U -125
Over gap -11.44% / Under gap +5.38%
Under +5.38%
DraftKings
5.5
O +103 / U -131
Over gap -10.20% / Under gap +4.23%
Under +4.23%
BetMGM
5.5
O +115 / U -155
Over gap -7.45% / Under gap +0.16%
No Play
FanDuel
7.5
O +440 / U --
Over gap -2.01% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +210 / U --
Over gap -6.05% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -2200 / U --
Over gap -11.34% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -530 / U --
Over gap -13.81% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -230 / U --
Over gap -15.33% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 39.1% | U 60.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 44.3
Seth Lugo headshot

Seth Lugo
KC vs NYM | 9 books
Play
Adj K 4.78
Strongest Gap Under +3.10%
Best Line 4.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
4.5
O -146 / U +114
Over gap -9.18% / Under gap +3.10%
Under +3.10%
FanDuel
4.5
O -146 / U +114
Over gap -9.18% / Under gap +3.10%
Under +3.10%
DraftKings
4.5
O -144 / U +110
Over gap -8.85% / Under gap +2.21%
Under +2.21%
FanDuel
7.5
O +680 / U --
Over gap +0.94% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
6.5
O +330 / U --
Over gap -0.63% / Under gap --
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -125 / U -105
Over gap -5.39% / Under gap -1.39%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +158 / U --
Over gap -3.85% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1000 / U --
Over gap -9.00% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -350 / U --
Over gap -11.03% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 50.2% | U 49.8% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 37.3
Hurston Waldrep headshot

Hurston Waldrep
ATL vs PIT | 5 books
Lean
Adj K 4.57
Strongest Gap Over +2.71%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +480 / U --
Over gap +2.71% / Under gap --
Over +2.71%
FanDuel
5.5
O +230 / U --
Over gap +1.38% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O +100 / U -128
Over gap -3.24% / Under gap -2.90%
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -245 / U --
Over gap -7.28% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -720 / U --
Over gap -8.00% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 20.0% | U 80.0% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 50.3
Joey Cantillo headshot

Joey Cantillo
CLE vs MIN | 9 books
Lean
Adj K 5.09
Strongest Gap Over +2.65%
Best Line 7.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
7.5
O +600 / U --
Over gap +2.65% / Under gap --
Over +2.65%
FanDuel
4.5
O -170 / U +132
Over gap -7.98% / Under gap +1.92%
Under +1.92%
FanDuel
4.5
O -170 / U +132
Over gap -7.98% / Under gap +1.92%
Under +1.92%
FanDuel
6.5
O +285 / U --
Over gap +0.77% / Under gap --
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O +125 / U -160
Over gap -4.77% / Under gap -1.21%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -155 / U +115
Over gap -5.80% / Under gap -1.49%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +134 / U --
Over gap -3.07% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -1400 / U --
Over gap -8.69% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -400 / U --
Over gap -9.17% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 16.9% | U 83.1% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 54.6
Zac Gallen headshot

Zac Gallen
AZ vs SD | 3 books
Lean
Adj K 4.27
Strongest Gap Over +2.16%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -132 / U +104
Over gap +2.16% / Under gap -8.08%
Over +2.16%
BetMGM
3.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap +1.61% / Under gap -9.06%
Over +1.61%
DraftKings
3.5
O -144 / U +113
Over gap +0.04% / Under gap -6.01%
No Play
Model O 59.1% | U 40.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 41.9
Will Warren headshot

Will Warren
NYY vs TB | 8 books
Lean
Adj K 4.74
Strongest Gap Over +2.11%
Best Line 6.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
6.5
O +400 / U --
Over gap +2.11% / Under gap --
Over +2.11%
DraftKings
4.5
O -128 / U +101
Over gap -6.61% / Under gap +0.72%
No Play
FanDuel
5.5
O +196 / U --
Over gap +0.52% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -118 / U -108
Over gap -4.60% / Under gap -1.45%
No Play
FanDuel
4.5
O -118 / U -108
Over gap -4.60% / Under gap -1.45%
No Play
BetMGM
4.5
O -115 / U -115
Over gap -3.96% / Under gap -3.02%
No Play
FanDuel
2.5
O -850 / U --
Over gap -7.95% / Under gap --
No Play
FanDuel
3.5
O -290 / U --
Over gap -8.17% / Under gap --
No Play
Model O 22.1% | U 77.9% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 47.4
Michael Lorenzen headshot

Michael Lorenzen
COL vs LAD | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 3.88
Strongest Gap No Play +0.89%
Best Line 3.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
3.5
O -146 / U +114
Over gap -6.97% / Under gap +0.89%
No Play
DraftKings
3.5
O -144 / U +113
Over gap -6.64% / Under gap +0.67%
No Play
BetMGM
3.5
O -135 / U +100
Over gap -5.07% / Under gap -2.38%
No Play
Model O 52.4% | U 47.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 24.5
José Soriano headshot

José Soriano
LAA vs TEX | 3 books
No Play
Adj K 5.47
Strongest Gap No Play -1.52%
Best Line 5.5 at FanDuel
FanDuel Best Price Gap
5.5
O +100 / U -128
Over gap -4.62% / Under gap -1.52%
No Play
DraftKings
5.5
O +108 / U -137
Over gap -2.70% / Under gap -3.19%
No Play
BetMGM
5.5
O +100 / U -135
Over gap -4.62% / Under gap -2.83%
No Play
Model O 45.4% | U 54.6% | Push 0.0% Probable | Projected lineup | Matchup 39.3

Methodology

How Betting Differs From Projections

Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.

Projection Input

Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor

This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.

Probability Math

Whole Lines Track Pushes

Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.

Implieds

Raw First, No-Vig Stored

Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.

Later

Built For More Markets

This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.