{ "date": "2026-07-03", "generated_at": "2026-07-03T08:04:54.022193", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "projection_date": "2026-07-03", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 127, "matched_count": 72, "unmatched_count": 55 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 72, "grouped_pitcher_count": 13, "sportsbook_count": 3 }, "edge_count": 72, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "pitcher_id": 669467, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-03T11:58:24.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -143, "under_odds": 112, "expected_strikeouts": 3.18, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.89, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.18, "skill_score": 13.2, "opportunity_score": 60.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.389, "model_under_probability": 0.611, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5885, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4717, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5551, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4449, "edge_over": -0.1995, "edge_under": 0.1393, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1393, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.099, "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20588.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.22, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "pitcher_id": 669467, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -142, "under_odds": 112, "expected_strikeouts": 3.18, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.89, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.18, "skill_score": 13.2, "opportunity_score": 60.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.389, "model_under_probability": 0.611, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5868, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4717, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5544, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4456, "edge_over": -0.1978, "edge_under": 0.1393, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1393, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.099, "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20588.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.22, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "pitcher_id": 669467, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-03T11:59:01.651Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -142, "under_odds": 112, "expected_strikeouts": 3.18, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.89, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.18, "skill_score": 13.2, "opportunity_score": 60.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.389, "model_under_probability": 0.611, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5868, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4717, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5544, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4456, "edge_over": -0.1978, "edge_under": 0.1393, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1393, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.099, "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20588.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.22, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "pitcher_id": 669467, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-03T11:57:05.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 3.18, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.89, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.18, "skill_score": 13.2, "opportunity_score": 60.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.389, "model_under_probability": 0.611, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5575, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4425, "edge_over": -0.211, "edge_under": 0.1348, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1348, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.099, "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20588.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.22, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "David Peterson", "pitcher_id": 656849, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 600, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.0, "skill_score": 11.3, "opportunity_score": 31.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 72.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2554, "model_under_probability": 0.7446, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1429, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.1125, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1125, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.054, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26520.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Harrison", "pitcher_id": 690986, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-03T11:57:53.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 113, "under_odds": -145, "expected_strikeouts": 4.48, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.75, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.48, "skill_score": 58.0, "opportunity_score": 44.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 59.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3029, "model_under_probability": 0.6971, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4695, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5918, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4424, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5576, "edge_over": -0.1666, "edge_under": 0.1053, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1053, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.943, "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12381.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.17, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "David Peterson", "pitcher_id": 656849, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 260, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.0, "skill_score": 11.3, "opportunity_score": 31.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 72.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.383, "model_under_probability": 0.617, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2778, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.1052, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1052, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.054, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26520.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "pitcher_id": 669432, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-03T11:58:09.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -107, "under_odds": -119, "expected_strikeouts": 4.8, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.8, "skill_score": 17.1, "opportunity_score": 30.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 82.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3522, "model_under_probability": 0.6478, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5169, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5434, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4875, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5125, "edge_over": -0.1647, "edge_under": 0.1044, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1044, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.46, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.107, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.68, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 86.9, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "pitcher_id": 669432, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-03T11:57:55.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -110, "under_odds": -120, "expected_strikeouts": 4.8, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.8, "skill_score": 17.1, "opportunity_score": 30.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 82.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3522, "model_under_probability": 0.6478, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4899, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5101, "edge_over": -0.1716, "edge_under": 0.1023, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1023, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.46, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.107, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.68, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 86.9, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "David Peterson", "pitcher_id": 656849, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 130, "under_odds": -166, "expected_strikeouts": 5.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.0, "skill_score": 11.3, "opportunity_score": 31.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 72.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5361, "model_under_probability": 0.4639, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6241, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4106, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5894, "edge_over": 0.1013, "edge_under": -0.1602, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1013, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.054, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26520.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Harrison", "pitcher_id": 690986, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-03T11:58:05.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -160, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 4.48, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.75, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.48, "skill_score": 58.0, "opportunity_score": 44.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 59.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4527, "model_under_probability": 0.5473, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5752, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4248, "edge_over": -0.1627, "edge_under": 0.0928, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0928, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.943, "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12381.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.17, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "pitcher_id": 668909, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -166, "under_odds": 130, "expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.6, "skill_score": 57.9, "opportunity_score": 64.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 17.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4728, "model_under_probability": 0.5272, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6241, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5894, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4106, "edge_over": -0.1513, "edge_under": 0.0924, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0924, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.949, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "pitcher_id": 668909, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-03T11:59:01.651Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -166, "under_odds": 130, "expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.6, "skill_score": 57.9, "opportunity_score": 64.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 17.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4728, "model_under_probability": 0.5272, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6241, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5894, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4106, "edge_over": -0.1513, "edge_under": 0.0924, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0924, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.949, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Feltner", "pitcher_id": 663372, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-03T11:58:24.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 115, "under_odds": -147, "expected_strikeouts": 4.05, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "skill_score": 13.5, "opportunity_score": 13.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 90.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5538, "model_under_probability": 0.4462, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5951, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4387, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5613, "edge_over": 0.0887, "edge_under": -0.1489, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0887, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.065, "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15246.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.57, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 75.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Martinez", "pitcher_id": 607259, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-03T11:59:01.651Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 118, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 3.68, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.47, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.68, "skill_score": 13.2, "opportunity_score": 56.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 40.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3142, "model_under_probability": 0.6858, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4333, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5667, "edge_over": -0.1445, "edge_under": 0.0858, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0858, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18769.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.4, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Harrison", "pitcher_id": 690986, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-03T11:59:01.651Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 124, "under_odds": -158, "expected_strikeouts": 4.48, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.75, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.48, "skill_score": 58.0, "opportunity_score": 44.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 59.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3029, "model_under_probability": 0.6971, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4216, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5784, "edge_over": -0.1435, "edge_under": 0.0847, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0847, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.943, "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12381.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.17, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "pitcher_id": 669432, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 102, "under_odds": -130, "expected_strikeouts": 4.8, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.8, "skill_score": 17.1, "opportunity_score": 30.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 82.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3522, "model_under_probability": 0.6478, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4669, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5331, "edge_over": -0.1428, "edge_under": 0.0826, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0826, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.46, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.107, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.68, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 86.9, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "pitcher_id": 669432, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-03T11:59:01.651Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 102, "under_odds": -130, "expected_strikeouts": 4.8, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.8, "skill_score": 17.1, "opportunity_score": 30.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 82.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3522, "model_under_probability": 0.6478, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4669, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5331, "edge_over": -0.1428, "edge_under": 0.0826, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0826, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.46, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.107, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.68, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 86.9, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Feltner", "pitcher_id": 663372, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-03T11:59:01.651Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 112, "under_odds": -142, "expected_strikeouts": 4.05, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "skill_score": 13.5, "opportunity_score": 13.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 90.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5538, "model_under_probability": 0.4462, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4717, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5868, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4456, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5544, "edge_over": 0.0821, "edge_under": -0.1406, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0821, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.065, "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15246.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.57, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 75.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Martinez", "pitcher_id": 607259, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-03T11:58:07.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 120, "under_odds": -153, "expected_strikeouts": 3.68, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.47, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.68, "skill_score": 13.2, "opportunity_score": 56.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 40.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3142, "model_under_probability": 0.6858, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6047, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4291, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5709, "edge_over": -0.1403, "edge_under": 0.0811, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0811, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18769.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.4, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "pitcher_id": 663903, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-03T11:58:09.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -157, "under_odds": 123, "expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "skill_score": 34.3, "opportunity_score": 38.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.0, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 58.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4856, "model_under_probability": 0.5144, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6109, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4484, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5767, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4233, "edge_over": -0.1253, "edge_under": 0.066, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.066, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 86.9, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Feltner", "pitcher_id": 663372, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-03T11:58:19.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 105, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 4.05, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "skill_score": 13.5, "opportunity_score": 13.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 90.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5538, "model_under_probability": 0.4462, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4554, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5446, "edge_over": 0.066, "edge_under": -0.1371, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.066, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.065, "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15246.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.57, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 75.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "pitcher_id": 663903, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-03T11:57:55.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -160, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "skill_score": 34.3, "opportunity_score": 38.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.0, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 58.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4856, "model_under_probability": 0.5144, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5752, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4248, "edge_over": -0.1298, "edge_under": 0.0599, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0599, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 86.9, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "pitcher_id": 663903, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 124, "under_odds": -160, "expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "skill_score": 34.3, "opportunity_score": 38.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.0, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 58.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3337, "model_under_probability": 0.6663, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4204, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5796, "edge_over": -0.1127, "edge_under": 0.0509, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0509, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 86.9, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "pitcher_id": 663903, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-03T11:59:01.651Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 124, "under_odds": -160, "expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "skill_score": 34.3, "opportunity_score": 38.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.0, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 58.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3337, "model_under_probability": 0.6663, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4204, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5796, "edge_over": -0.1127, "edge_under": 0.0509, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0509, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 86.9, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "pitcher_id": 656550, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 390, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.82, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.99, "skill_score": 36.6, "opportunity_score": 27.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 83.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.254, "model_under_probability": 0.746, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2041, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0499, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0499, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 83.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Martinez", "pitcher_id": 607259, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-03T11:57:55.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -155, "under_odds": 115, "expected_strikeouts": 3.68, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.47, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.68, "skill_score": 13.2, "opportunity_score": 56.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 40.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.487, "model_under_probability": 0.513, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5665, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4335, "edge_over": -0.1208, "edge_under": 0.0479, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0479, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18769.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.4, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "pitcher_id": 668909, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-03T11:58:20.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 120, "under_odds": -160, "expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.6, "skill_score": 57.9, "opportunity_score": 64.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 17.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3373, "model_under_probability": 0.6627, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4248, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5752, "edge_over": -0.1172, "edge_under": 0.0473, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0473, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.949, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "pitcher_id": 668909, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-03T11:57:56.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 125, "under_odds": -160, "expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.6, "skill_score": 57.9, "opportunity_score": 64.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 17.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3373, "model_under_probability": 0.6627, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4444, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4193, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5807, "edge_over": -0.1071, "edge_under": 0.0473, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0473, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.949, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "pitcher_id": 656605, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 350, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.18, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.18, "skill_score": 15.8, "opportunity_score": 51.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 35.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2573, "model_under_probability": 0.7427, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2222, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0351, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0351, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.083, "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35103.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 92.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Spencer Arrighetti", "pitcher_id": 681293, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-03T11:59:01.651Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 102, "under_odds": -130, "expected_strikeouts": 5.15, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.19, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.15, "skill_score": 31.5, "opportunity_score": 54.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 43.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4059, "model_under_probability": 0.5941, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4669, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5331, "edge_over": -0.0891, "edge_under": 0.0289, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0289, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.993, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12902.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.4, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Spencer Arrighetti", "pitcher_id": 681293, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-03T11:58:07.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 103, "under_odds": -131, "expected_strikeouts": 5.15, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.19, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.15, "skill_score": 31.5, "opportunity_score": 54.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 43.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4059, "model_under_probability": 0.5941, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4926, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5671, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4648, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5352, "edge_over": -0.0867, "edge_under": 0.027, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.027, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.993, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12902.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.4, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "pitcher_id": 656550, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 182, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.82, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.99, "skill_score": 36.6, "opportunity_score": 27.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 83.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3814, "model_under_probability": 0.6186, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3546, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0268, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0268, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 83.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "pitcher_id": 656605, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 162, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.18, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.18, "skill_score": 15.8, "opportunity_score": 51.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 35.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4016, "model_under_probability": 0.5984, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3817, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0199, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0199, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.083, "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35103.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 92.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "pitcher_id": 650633, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-03T11:57:43.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -110, "under_odds": -118, "expected_strikeouts": 5.03, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.03, "skill_score": 44.2, "opportunity_score": 46.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 42.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5407, "model_under_probability": 0.4593, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5413, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4918, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5082, "edge_over": 0.0169, "edge_under": -0.082, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0169, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.071, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.63, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 60.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Luis Castillo", "pitcher_id": 622491, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-03T11:58:00.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.94, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "skill_score": 28.1, "opportunity_score": 43.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5617, "model_under_probability": 0.4383, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5101, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4899, "edge_over": 0.0162, "edge_under": -0.0855, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0162, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.047, "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35993.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.53, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 56.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.1, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Spencer Arrighetti", "pitcher_id": 681293, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-03T11:57:55.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 105, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 5.15, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.19, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.15, "skill_score": 31.5, "opportunity_score": 54.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 43.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4059, "model_under_probability": 0.5941, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4554, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5446, "edge_over": -0.0819, "edge_under": 0.0108, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0108, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.993, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12902.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.4, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "David Peterson", "pitcher_id": 656849, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -220, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.0, "skill_score": 11.3, "opportunity_score": 31.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 72.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6969, "model_under_probability": 0.3031, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6875, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0094, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0094, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.054, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26520.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "pitcher_id": 656550, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-03T11:57:59.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 4.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.82, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.99, "skill_score": 36.6, "opportunity_score": 27.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 83.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5346, "model_under_probability": 0.4654, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5101, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4899, "edge_over": -0.0109, "edge_under": -0.0584, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0109, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 83.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "pitcher_id": 668909, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 540, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.6, "skill_score": 57.9, "opportunity_score": 64.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 17.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.1445, "model_under_probability": 0.8555, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1562, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0117, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0117, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.949, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "pitcher_id": 656605, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-03T11:57:46.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -164, "under_odds": 128, "expected_strikeouts": 4.18, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.18, "skill_score": 15.8, "opportunity_score": 51.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 35.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5758, "model_under_probability": 0.4242, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6212, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4386, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5861, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4139, "edge_over": -0.0454, "edge_under": -0.0144, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0144, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.083, "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35103.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 92.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "pitcher_id": 656550, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -122, "under_odds": -104, "expected_strikeouts": 4.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.82, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.99, "skill_score": 36.6, "opportunity_score": 27.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 83.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5346, "model_under_probability": 0.4654, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5187, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4813, "edge_over": -0.0149, "edge_under": -0.0444, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0149, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 83.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "pitcher_id": 656550, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-03T11:59:01.651Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -122, "under_odds": -104, "expected_strikeouts": 4.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.82, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.99, "skill_score": 36.6, "opportunity_score": 27.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 83.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5346, "model_under_probability": 0.4654, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5187, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4813, "edge_over": -0.0149, "edge_under": -0.0444, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0149, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 83.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "pitcher_id": 656550, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-03T11:58:04.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -125, "under_odds": -102, "expected_strikeouts": 4.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.82, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.99, "skill_score": 36.6, "opportunity_score": 27.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 83.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5346, "model_under_probability": 0.4654, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5239, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4761, "edge_over": -0.021, "edge_under": -0.0396, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.021, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 83.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "pitcher_id": 656605, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-03T11:58:16.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 4.18, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.18, "skill_score": 15.8, "opportunity_score": 51.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 35.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5758, "model_under_probability": 0.4242, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5575, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4425, "edge_over": -0.0242, "edge_under": -0.052, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0242, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.083, "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35103.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 92.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Luis Castillo", "pitcher_id": 622491, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-03T11:59:01.651Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -148, "under_odds": 116, "expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.94, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "skill_score": 28.1, "opportunity_score": 43.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5617, "model_under_probability": 0.4383, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5968, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5631, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4369, "edge_over": -0.0351, "edge_under": -0.0247, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0247, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.047, "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35993.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.53, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 56.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.1, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "pitcher_id": 650633, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-03T11:59:01.651Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -136, "under_odds": 106, "expected_strikeouts": 5.03, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.03, "skill_score": 44.2, "opportunity_score": 46.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 42.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5407, "model_under_probability": 0.4593, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5428, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4572, "edge_over": -0.0356, "edge_under": -0.0261, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0261, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.071, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.63, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 60.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "pitcher_id": 656605, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -156, "under_odds": 122, "expected_strikeouts": 4.18, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.18, "skill_score": 15.8, "opportunity_score": 51.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 35.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5758, "model_under_probability": 0.4242, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6094, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.575, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.425, "edge_over": -0.0336, "edge_under": -0.0263, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0263, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.083, "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35103.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 92.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "pitcher_id": 656605, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-03T11:59:01.651Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -156, "under_odds": 122, "expected_strikeouts": 4.18, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.18, "skill_score": 15.8, "opportunity_score": 51.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 35.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5758, "model_under_probability": 0.4242, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6094, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.575, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.425, "edge_over": -0.0336, "edge_under": -0.0263, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0263, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.083, "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35103.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 92.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "David Peterson", "pitcher_id": 656849, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -650, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.0, "skill_score": 11.3, "opportunity_score": 31.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 72.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.8389, "model_under_probability": 0.1611, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8667, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0278, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0278, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.054, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26520.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "pitcher_id": 650633, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-03T11:57:57.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -132, "under_odds": 104, "expected_strikeouts": 5.03, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.03, "skill_score": 44.2, "opportunity_score": 46.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 42.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5407, "model_under_probability": 0.4593, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5372, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4628, "edge_over": -0.0283, "edge_under": -0.0309, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0283, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.071, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.63, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 60.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "pitcher_id": 663903, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 540, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "skill_score": 34.3, "opportunity_score": 38.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.0, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 58.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1279, "model_under_probability": 0.8721, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1562, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0283, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0283, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 86.9, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Luis Castillo", "pitcher_id": 622491, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-03T11:57:41.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -145, "under_odds": 114, "expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.94, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "skill_score": 28.1, "opportunity_score": 43.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5617, "model_under_probability": 0.4383, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5918, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5588, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4412, "edge_over": -0.0301, "edge_under": -0.029, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.029, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.047, "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35993.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.53, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 56.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.1, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "pitcher_id": 669432, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 470, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.8, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.8, "skill_score": 17.1, "opportunity_score": 30.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 82.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1395, "model_under_probability": 0.8605, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1754, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0359, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0359, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.46, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.107, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.68, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 86.9, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "pitcher_id": 668909, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 265, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.6, "skill_score": 57.9, "opportunity_score": 64.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 17.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2268, "model_under_probability": 0.7732, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.274, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0472, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0472, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.949, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "pitcher_id": 656550, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -800, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.82, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.99, "skill_score": 36.6, "opportunity_score": 27.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 83.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.838, "model_under_probability": 0.162, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8889, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0509, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0509, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 83.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "pitcher_id": 656550, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -295, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.82, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.99, "skill_score": 36.6, "opportunity_score": 27.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 83.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6956, "model_under_probability": 0.3044, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7468, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0512, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0512, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 83.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "pitcher_id": 656605, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -430, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.18, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.18, "skill_score": 15.8, "opportunity_score": 51.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 35.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7528, "model_under_probability": 0.2472, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8113, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0585, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0585, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.083, "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35103.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 92.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "pitcher_id": 663903, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 265, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "skill_score": 34.3, "opportunity_score": 38.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.0, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 58.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2134, "model_under_probability": 0.7866, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.274, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0606, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0606, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 86.9, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "pitcher_id": 669467, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 390, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.18, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.89, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.18, "skill_score": 13.2, "opportunity_score": 60.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1209, "model_under_probability": 0.8791, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2041, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0832, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0832, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.099, "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20588.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.22, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "pitcher_id": 669432, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 220, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.8, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.8, "skill_score": 17.1, "opportunity_score": 30.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 82.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2289, "model_under_probability": 0.7711, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3125, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0836, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0836, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.46, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.107, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.68, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 86.9, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "pitcher_id": 668909, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 130, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.6, "skill_score": 57.9, "opportunity_score": 64.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 17.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3373, "model_under_probability": 0.6627, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0975, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0975, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.949, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "pitcher_id": 663903, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1600, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "skill_score": 34.3, "opportunity_score": 38.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.0, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 58.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.8093, "model_under_probability": 0.1907, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9412, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1319, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1319, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 86.9, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "pitcher_id": 669432, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -2500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.8, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.8, "skill_score": 17.1, "opportunity_score": 30.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 82.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.821, "model_under_probability": 0.179, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9615, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1405, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1405, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.46, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.107, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.68, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 86.9, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "pitcher_id": 668909, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1100, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.6, "skill_score": 57.9, "opportunity_score": 64.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 17.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.7661, "model_under_probability": 0.2339, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9167, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1506, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1506, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.949, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "pitcher_id": 669467, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 164, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.18, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.89, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.18, "skill_score": 13.2, "opportunity_score": 60.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2278, "model_under_probability": 0.7722, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3788, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.151, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.151, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.099, "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20588.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.22, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "pitcher_id": 663903, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -186, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "skill_score": 34.3, "opportunity_score": 38.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.0, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 58.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4856, "model_under_probability": 0.5144, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6503, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1647, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1647, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 86.9, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "pitcher_id": 669432, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -530, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.8, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.8, "skill_score": 17.1, "opportunity_score": 30.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 82.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6702, "model_under_probability": 0.3298, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8413, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1711, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1711, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.46, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.107, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.68, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 86.9, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "pitcher_id": 668909, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -390, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.6, "skill_score": 57.9, "opportunity_score": 64.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 17.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.6222, "model_under_probability": 0.3778, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7959, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1737, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1737, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.949, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "pitcher_id": 663903, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -480, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "skill_score": 34.3, "opportunity_score": 38.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.0, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 58.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6534, "model_under_probability": 0.3466, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8276, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1742, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1742, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 86.9, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "pitcher_id": 669432, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -215, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.8, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.8, "skill_score": 17.1, "opportunity_score": 30.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 82.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5049, "model_under_probability": 0.4951, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6825, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1776, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1776, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.46, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.107, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.68, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 86.9, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "pitcher_id": 669467, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -400, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.18, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.89, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.18, "skill_score": 13.2, "opportunity_score": 60.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5937, "model_under_probability": 0.4063, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2063, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2063, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.099, "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20588.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.22, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [ { "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Christian Scott", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Christian Scott", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Christian Scott", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Christian Scott", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Christian Scott", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Christian Scott", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Christian Scott", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Christian Scott", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 8.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 8.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Perkins", "team_abbr": "OAK", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Perkins", "team_abbr": "OAK", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Perkins", "team_abbr": "OAK", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Mike Paredes", "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Mike Paredes", "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Mike Paredes", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Mike Paredes", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Mike Paredes", "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Mike Paredes", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Mike Paredes", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Reid Detmers", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Reid Detmers", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Reid Detmers", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "OAK", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "OAK", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "OAK", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." } ] }