{ "date": "2026-05-30", "generated_at": "2026-05-30T09:01:33.616831", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "projection_date": "2026-05-30", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 208, "matched_count": 116, "unmatched_count": 92 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 116, "grouped_pitcher_count": 18, "sportsbook_count": 3 }, "edge_count": 116, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:53:30.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -145, "under_odds": 114, "expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "skill_score": 21.4, "opportunity_score": 54.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 49.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3183, "model_under_probability": 0.6817, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5918, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5588, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4412, "edge_over": -0.2735, "edge_under": 0.2144, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2144, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.07, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:53:24.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -135, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "skill_score": 21.4, "opportunity_score": 54.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 49.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3183, "model_under_probability": 0.6817, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5347, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4653, "edge_over": -0.2562, "edge_under": 0.1817, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1817, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.07, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -130, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "skill_score": 21.4, "opportunity_score": 54.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 49.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3183, "model_under_probability": 0.6817, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5306, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4694, "edge_over": -0.2469, "edge_under": 0.1817, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1817, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.07, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:53:52.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -122, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "skill_score": 21.4, "opportunity_score": 54.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 49.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3183, "model_under_probability": 0.6817, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5236, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4764, "edge_over": -0.2312, "edge_under": 0.1817, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1817, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.07, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "pitcher_id": 677960, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:53:27.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -142, "under_odds": 116, "expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.87, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.88, "skill_score": 38.6, "opportunity_score": 56.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3646, "model_under_probability": 0.6354, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5868, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.559, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.441, "edge_over": -0.2222, "edge_under": 0.1724, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1724, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.002, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.98, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryne Nelson", "pitcher_id": 669194, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:53:52.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 103, "under_odds": -132, "expected_strikeouts": 4.19, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.19, "skill_score": 7.9, "opportunity_score": 63.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 48.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2588, "model_under_probability": 0.7412, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4926, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.464, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.536, "edge_over": -0.2338, "edge_under": 0.1722, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1722, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25783.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.59, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 51.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "pitcher_id": 677960, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:53:13.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -146, "under_odds": 114, "expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.87, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.88, "skill_score": 38.6, "opportunity_score": 56.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3646, "model_under_probability": 0.6354, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5935, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5595, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4405, "edge_over": -0.2289, "edge_under": 0.1681, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1681, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.002, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.98, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryne Nelson", "pitcher_id": 669194, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:53:22.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -175, "under_odds": 130, "expected_strikeouts": 4.19, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.19, "skill_score": 7.9, "opportunity_score": 63.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 48.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4034, "model_under_probability": 0.5966, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6364, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5941, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4059, "edge_over": -0.233, "edge_under": 0.1618, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1618, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25783.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.59, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 51.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "pitcher_id": 677960, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:53:33.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.87, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.88, "skill_score": 38.6, "opportunity_score": 56.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3646, "model_under_probability": 0.6354, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5575, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4425, "edge_over": -0.2354, "edge_under": 0.1592, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1592, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.002, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.98, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryne Nelson", "pitcher_id": 669194, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:53:48.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 116, "under_odds": -142, "expected_strikeouts": 4.19, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.19, "skill_score": 7.9, "opportunity_score": 63.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 48.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2588, "model_under_probability": 0.7412, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5868, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.441, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.559, "edge_over": -0.2042, "edge_under": 0.1544, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1544, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25783.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.59, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 51.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "pitcher_id": 693433, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:53:48.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -114, "under_odds": -106, "expected_strikeouts": 5.09, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.09, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.09, "skill_score": 30.6, "opportunity_score": 55.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 40.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3967, "model_under_probability": 0.6033, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5327, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5146, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5086, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4914, "edge_over": -0.136, "edge_under": 0.0887, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0887, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.99, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 51.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "pitcher_id": 641927, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 350, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.44, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "skill_score": 14.2, "opportunity_score": 53.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 44.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2968, "model_under_probability": 0.7032, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2222, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0746, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0746, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.47, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.118, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29545.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.28, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 8.4, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Feltner", "pitcher_id": 663372, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:53:46.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 106, "under_odds": -135, "expected_strikeouts": 4.05, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "skill_score": 14.9, "opportunity_score": 15.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5538, "model_under_probability": 0.4462, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.458, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.542, "edge_over": 0.0684, "edge_under": -0.1283, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0684, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.065, "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15246.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.57, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 6.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "pitcher_id": 693433, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:53:52.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -110, "under_odds": -116, "expected_strikeouts": 5.09, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.09, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.09, "skill_score": 30.6, "opportunity_score": 55.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 40.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3967, "model_under_probability": 0.6033, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.537, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4938, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5062, "edge_over": -0.1271, "edge_under": 0.0663, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0663, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.99, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 51.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "pitcher_id": 641927, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 750, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.44, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "skill_score": 14.2, "opportunity_score": 53.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 44.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1834, "model_under_probability": 0.8166, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1176, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0658, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0658, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.47, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.118, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29545.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.28, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 8.4, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Feltner", "pitcher_id": 663372, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:53:30.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 104, "under_odds": -128, "expected_strikeouts": 4.05, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "skill_score": 14.9, "opportunity_score": 15.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5538, "model_under_probability": 0.4462, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4661, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5339, "edge_over": 0.0636, "edge_under": -0.1152, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0636, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.065, "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15246.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.57, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 6.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "pitcher_id": 650633, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:53:03.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -101, "under_odds": -127, "expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "skill_score": 50.2, "opportunity_score": 53.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.9, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 40.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3784, "model_under_probability": 0.6216, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5025, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5595, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4732, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5268, "edge_over": -0.1241, "edge_under": 0.0621, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0621, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.058, "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.36, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "pitcher_id": 693433, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:53:22.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -110, "under_odds": -120, "expected_strikeouts": 5.09, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.09, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.09, "skill_score": 30.6, "opportunity_score": 55.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 40.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3967, "model_under_probability": 0.6033, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4899, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5101, "edge_over": -0.1271, "edge_under": 0.0578, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0578, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.99, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 51.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Adrian Houser", "pitcher_id": 605288, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:53:46.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 118, "under_odds": -151, "expected_strikeouts": 3.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.82, "skill_score": 6.9, "opportunity_score": 45.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 57.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.513, "model_under_probability": 0.487, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6016, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4326, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5674, "edge_over": 0.0543, "edge_under": -0.1146, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0543, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.117, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17064.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.31, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 6.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Feltner", "pitcher_id": 663372, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:53:40.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -135, "expected_strikeouts": 4.05, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "skill_score": 14.9, "opportunity_score": 15.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5538, "model_under_probability": 0.4462, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4653, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5347, "edge_over": 0.0538, "edge_under": -0.1283, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0538, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.065, "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15246.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.57, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 6.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "pitcher_id": 641927, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 154, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.44, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "skill_score": 14.2, "opportunity_score": 53.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 44.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.446, "model_under_probability": 0.554, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3937, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0523, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0523, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.47, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.118, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29545.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.28, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 8.4, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "pitcher_id": 607625, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:53:57.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -159, "under_odds": 125, "expected_strikeouts": 4.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.83, "skill_score": 10.3, "opportunity_score": 69.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 22.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5097, "model_under_probability": 0.4903, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6139, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4444, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5801, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4199, "edge_over": -0.1042, "edge_under": 0.0459, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0459, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 85.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:53:31.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 3.65, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.65, "skill_score": 2.8, "opportunity_score": 49.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4814, "model_under_probability": 0.5186, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5575, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4425, "edge_over": -0.1186, "edge_under": 0.0424, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0424, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.994, "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "pitcher_id": 650633, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 106, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "skill_score": 50.2, "opportunity_score": 53.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.9, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 40.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3784, "model_under_probability": 0.6216, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4542, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5458, "edge_over": -0.107, "edge_under": 0.0383, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0383, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.058, "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.36, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "pitcher_id": 650633, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:53:50.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 106, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "skill_score": 50.2, "opportunity_score": 53.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.9, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 40.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3784, "model_under_probability": 0.6216, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4542, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5458, "edge_over": -0.107, "edge_under": 0.0383, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0383, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.058, "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.36, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "pitcher_id": 663903, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 520, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.57, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.57, "skill_score": 19.1, "opportunity_score": 33.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 73.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1995, "model_under_probability": 0.8005, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1613, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0382, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0382, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.068, "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.24, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 63.1, "wind_speed_mph": 8.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -132, "under_odds": 108, "expected_strikeouts": 3.65, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.65, "skill_score": 2.8, "opportunity_score": 49.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4814, "model_under_probability": 0.5186, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.542, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.458, "edge_over": -0.0876, "edge_under": 0.0378, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0378, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.994, "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:53:48.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -132, "under_odds": 108, "expected_strikeouts": 3.65, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.65, "skill_score": 2.8, "opportunity_score": 49.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4814, "model_under_probability": 0.5186, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.542, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.458, "edge_over": -0.0876, "edge_under": 0.0378, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0378, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.994, "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Adrian Houser", "pitcher_id": 605288, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:53:30.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -134, "expected_strikeouts": 3.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.82, "skill_score": 6.9, "opportunity_score": 45.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 57.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.513, "model_under_probability": 0.487, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5726, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.454, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.546, "edge_over": 0.0368, "edge_under": -0.0856, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0368, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.117, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17064.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.31, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 6.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:53:05.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -135, "under_odds": 106, "expected_strikeouts": 3.65, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.65, "skill_score": 2.8, "opportunity_score": 49.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4814, "model_under_probability": 0.5186, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.542, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.458, "edge_over": -0.0931, "edge_under": 0.0332, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0332, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.994, "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "pitcher_id": 607625, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -158, "under_odds": 118, "expected_strikeouts": 4.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.83, "skill_score": 10.3, "opportunity_score": 69.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 22.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5097, "model_under_probability": 0.4903, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5717, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4283, "edge_over": -0.1027, "edge_under": 0.0316, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0316, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 85.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "pitcher_id": 607625, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:53:37.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -158, "under_odds": 118, "expected_strikeouts": 4.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.83, "skill_score": 10.3, "opportunity_score": 69.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 22.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5097, "model_under_probability": 0.4903, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5717, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4283, "edge_over": -0.1027, "edge_under": 0.0316, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0316, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 85.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "pitcher_id": 664285, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -132, "expected_strikeouts": 5.15, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.57, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.15, "skill_score": 20.5, "opportunity_score": 45.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 55.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4059, "model_under_probability": 0.5941, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4677, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5323, "edge_over": -0.0941, "edge_under": 0.0251, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0251, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.58, "adjustment_multiplier": 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"baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.94, "skill_score": 16.4, "opportunity_score": 18.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 91.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5269, "model_under_probability": 0.4731, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5717, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4283, "edge_over": -0.0855, "edge_under": 0.0144, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0144, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.64, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.138, "aggregate_matchup_score": 70.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.79, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 61.7, "wind_speed_mph": 10.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ben Brown", "pitcher_id": 676962, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 630, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.91, "skill_score": 44.1, "opportunity_score": 20.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 78.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1506, "model_under_probability": 0.8494, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.137, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0136, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0136, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.031, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8699.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "pitcher_id": 664285, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:53:00.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 105, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 5.15, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.57, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.15, "skill_score": 20.5, "opportunity_score": 45.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 55.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4059, "model_under_probability": 0.5941, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4554, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5446, "edge_over": -0.0819, "edge_under": 0.0108, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0108, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.58, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.115, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33697.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.94, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 16.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "pitcher_id": 641927, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:53:16.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -155, "under_odds": 115, "expected_strikeouts": 4.44, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "skill_score": 14.2, "opportunity_score": 53.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 44.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6176, "model_under_probability": 0.3824, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5665, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4335, "edge_over": 0.0098, "edge_under": -0.0827, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0098, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.47, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.118, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29545.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.28, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 8.4, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "pitcher_id": 664285, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:53:37.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -141, "expected_strikeouts": 5.15, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.57, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.15, "skill_score": 20.5, "opportunity_score": 45.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 55.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4059, "model_under_probability": 0.5941, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5851, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4487, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5513, "edge_over": -0.0703, "edge_under": 0.009, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.009, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.58, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.115, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33697.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.94, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 16.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ben Brown", "pitcher_id": 676962, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:53:10.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -143, "under_odds": 113, "expected_strikeouts": 4.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.91, "skill_score": 44.1, "opportunity_score": 20.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 78.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5222, "model_under_probability": 0.4778, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5885, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4695, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5562, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4438, "edge_over": -0.0663, "edge_under": 0.0083, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0083, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.031, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8699.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "pitcher_id": 543243, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:53:06.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -147, "under_odds": 115, "expected_strikeouts": 4.94, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.94, "skill_score": 16.4, "opportunity_score": 18.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 91.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5269, "model_under_probability": 0.4731, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5951, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5613, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4387, "edge_over": -0.0682, "edge_under": 0.008, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.008, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.64, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.138, "aggregate_matchup_score": 70.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.79, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 61.7, "wind_speed_mph": 10.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "pitcher_id": 607625, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 640, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.83, "skill_score": 10.3, "opportunity_score": 69.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 22.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1425, "model_under_probability": 0.8575, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1351, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0074, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0074, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 85.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "pitcher_id": 543243, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 580, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.94, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.94, "skill_score": 16.4, "opportunity_score": 18.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 91.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1537, "model_under_probability": 0.8463, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1471, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0066, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0066, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.64, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.138, "aggregate_matchup_score": 70.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.79, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 61.7, "wind_speed_mph": 10.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo", "pitcher_id": 666200, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:53:17.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -107, "under_odds": -119, "expected_strikeouts": 5.95, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.93, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.95, "skill_score": 62.5, "opportunity_score": 53.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 32.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5225, "model_under_probability": 0.4775, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5169, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5434, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4875, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5125, "edge_over": 0.0056, "edge_under": -0.0659, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0056, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.004, "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28361.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.9, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 60.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "pitcher_id": 641927, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -158, "under_odds": 118, "expected_strikeouts": 4.44, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "skill_score": 14.2, "opportunity_score": 53.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 44.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6176, "model_under_probability": 0.3824, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5717, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4283, "edge_over": 0.0052, "edge_under": -0.0763, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0052, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.47, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.118, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29545.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.28, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 8.4, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "pitcher_id": 641927, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:53:30.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -158, "under_odds": 118, "expected_strikeouts": 4.44, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "skill_score": 14.2, "opportunity_score": 53.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 44.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6176, "model_under_probability": 0.3824, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5717, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4283, "edge_over": 0.0052, "edge_under": -0.0763, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0052, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.47, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.118, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29545.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.28, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 8.4, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "J.T. Ginn", "pitcher_id": 669372, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:53:27.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 122, "expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.52, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "skill_score": 33.1, "opportunity_score": 37.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 68.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5468, "model_under_probability": 0.4532, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5712, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4288, "edge_over": -0.0532, "edge_under": 0.0027, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0027, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.55, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.122, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8470.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.13, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "pitcher_id": 663903, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:53:51.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 115, "under_odds": -155, "expected_strikeouts": 4.57, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.57, "skill_score": 19.1, "opportunity_score": 33.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 73.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4676, "model_under_probability": 0.5324, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4335, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5665, "edge_over": 0.0025, "edge_under": -0.0754, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0025, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.068, "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.24, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 63.1, "wind_speed_mph": 8.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "pitcher_id": 656605, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 194, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.73, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "skill_score": 21.5, "opportunity_score": 59.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 32.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3414, "model_under_probability": 0.6586, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3401, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0013, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0013, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.105, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35103.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.55, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 8.4, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Adrian Houser", "pitcher_id": 605288, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:53:40.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -105, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 3.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.82, "skill_score": 6.9, "opportunity_score": 45.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 57.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.513, "model_under_probability": 0.487, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4797, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5203, "edge_over": 0.0008, "edge_under": -0.0686, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0008, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.117, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17064.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.31, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 61.9, "wind_speed_mph": 6.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "pitcher_id": 641927, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:53:23.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -161, "under_odds": 126, "expected_strikeouts": 4.44, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "skill_score": 14.2, "opportunity_score": 53.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 44.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6176, "model_under_probability": 0.3824, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6169, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4425, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5823, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4177, "edge_over": 0.0007, "edge_under": -0.0601, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0007, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.47, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.118, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29545.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.28, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 8.4, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "pitcher_id": 677958, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 550, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.18, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.18, "skill_score": 2.9, "opportunity_score": 18.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 85.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1527, "model_under_probability": 0.8473, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1538, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0011, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0011, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.99, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.26, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 85.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo", "pitcher_id": 666200, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:53:04.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -110, "under_odds": -120, "expected_strikeouts": 5.95, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.93, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.95, "skill_score": 62.5, "opportunity_score": 53.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 32.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5225, "model_under_probability": 0.4775, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4899, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5101, "edge_over": -0.0013, "edge_under": -0.068, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0013, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.004, "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28361.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.9, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 60.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "pitcher_id": 656605, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -122, "under_odds": -105, "expected_strikeouts": 4.73, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "skill_score": 21.5, "opportunity_score": 59.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 32.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4937, "model_under_probability": 0.5063, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5176, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4824, "edge_over": -0.0558, "edge_under": -0.0059, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0059, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.105, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35103.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.55, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 8.4, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "pitcher_id": 656605, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:53:30.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -105, "expected_strikeouts": 4.73, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "skill_score": 21.5, "opportunity_score": 59.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 32.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4937, "model_under_probability": 0.5063, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5108, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4892, "edge_over": -0.0412, "edge_under": -0.0059, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0059, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.105, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35103.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.55, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 8.4, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "pitcher_id": 656605, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:53:16.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -135, "expected_strikeouts": 4.73, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "skill_score": 21.5, "opportunity_score": 59.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 32.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4937, "model_under_probability": 0.5063, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4653, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5347, "edge_over": -0.0063, "edge_under": -0.0682, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0063, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.105, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35103.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.55, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 8.4, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ben Brown", "pitcher_id": 676962, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 300, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.91, "skill_score": 44.1, "opportunity_score": 20.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 78.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2434, "model_under_probability": 0.7566, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.25, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0066, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0066, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.031, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8699.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "J.T. Ginn", "pitcher_id": 669372, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:53:13.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 117, "expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.52, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "skill_score": 33.1, "opportunity_score": 37.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 68.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5468, "model_under_probability": 0.4532, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4608, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5656, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4344, "edge_over": -0.0532, "edge_under": -0.0076, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0076, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.55, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.122, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8470.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.13, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "pitcher_id": 607625, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:53:12.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -135, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 4.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.83, "skill_score": 10.3, "opportunity_score": 69.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 22.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5097, "model_under_probability": 0.4903, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5347, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4653, "edge_over": -0.0648, "edge_under": -0.0097, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0097, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 85.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "pitcher_id": 607625, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 310, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.83, "skill_score": 10.3, "opportunity_score": 69.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 22.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2329, "model_under_probability": 0.7671, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2439, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.011, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.011, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 85.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo", "pitcher_id": 666200, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:53:27.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -105, "expected_strikeouts": 5.95, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.93, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.95, "skill_score": 62.5, "opportunity_score": 53.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 32.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5225, "model_under_probability": 0.4775, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5108, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4892, "edge_over": -0.0124, "edge_under": -0.0347, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0124, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.004, "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28361.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.9, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 60.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "pitcher_id": 664285, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 430, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.15, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.57, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.15, "skill_score": 20.5, "opportunity_score": 45.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 55.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1758, "model_under_probability": 0.8242, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1887, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0129, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0129, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.58, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.115, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33697.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.94, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 16.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "pitcher_id": 543243, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 280, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.94, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.94, "skill_score": 16.4, "opportunity_score": 18.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 91.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2474, "model_under_probability": 0.7526, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2632, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0158, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0158, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.64, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.138, "aggregate_matchup_score": 70.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.79, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 61.7, "wind_speed_mph": 10.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ben Brown", "pitcher_id": 676962, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -136, "under_odds": 102, "expected_strikeouts": 4.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.91, "skill_score": 44.1, "opportunity_score": 20.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 78.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5222, "model_under_probability": 0.4778, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5379, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4621, "edge_over": -0.0541, "edge_under": -0.0172, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0172, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.031, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8699.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ben Brown", "pitcher_id": 676962, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:53:26.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -136, "under_odds": 102, "expected_strikeouts": 4.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.91, "skill_score": 44.1, "opportunity_score": 20.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 78.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5222, "model_under_probability": 0.4778, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5379, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4621, "edge_over": -0.0541, "edge_under": -0.0172, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0172, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.031, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8699.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "pitcher_id": 677958, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 138, "under_odds": -170, "expected_strikeouts": 4.18, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.18, "skill_score": 2.9, "opportunity_score": 18.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 85.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4016, "model_under_probability": 0.5984, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4202, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6296, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4003, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5997, "edge_over": -0.0186, "edge_under": -0.0312, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0186, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.99, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.26, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 85.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "pitcher_id": 677958, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:53:37.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 138, "under_odds": -170, "expected_strikeouts": 4.18, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.18, "skill_score": 2.9, "opportunity_score": 18.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 85.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4016, "model_under_probability": 0.5984, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4202, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6296, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4003, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5997, "edge_over": -0.0186, "edge_under": -0.0312, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0186, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.99, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.26, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 85.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "pitcher_id": 677958, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 260, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.18, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.18, "skill_score": 2.9, "opportunity_score": 18.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 85.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2573, "model_under_probability": 0.7427, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2778, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0205, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0205, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.99, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.26, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 85.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "pitcher_id": 656605, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:53:23.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -114, "under_odds": -112, "expected_strikeouts": 4.73, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "skill_score": 21.5, "opportunity_score": 59.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 32.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4937, "model_under_probability": 0.5063, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5327, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5283, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5021, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4979, "edge_over": -0.039, "edge_under": -0.022, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.022, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.105, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35103.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.55, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 8.4, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "J.T. Ginn", "pitcher_id": 669372, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:53:33.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.52, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "skill_score": 33.1, "opportunity_score": 37.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 68.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5468, "model_under_probability": 0.4532, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5575, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4425, "edge_over": -0.0532, "edge_under": -0.023, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.023, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.55, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.122, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8470.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.13, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ben Brown", "pitcher_id": 676962, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 154, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.91, "skill_score": 44.1, "opportunity_score": 20.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 78.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3692, "model_under_probability": 0.6308, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3937, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0245, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0245, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.031, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8699.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "pitcher_id": 677958, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:53:57.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 130, "under_odds": -167, "expected_strikeouts": 4.18, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.18, "skill_score": 2.9, "opportunity_score": 18.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 85.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4016, "model_under_probability": 0.5984, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6255, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4101, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5899, "edge_over": -0.0332, "edge_under": -0.0271, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0271, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.99, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.26, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 85.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "pitcher_id": 641927, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -440, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.44, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "skill_score": 14.2, "opportunity_score": 53.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 44.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7839, "model_under_probability": 0.2161, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8148, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0309, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0309, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.47, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.118, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29545.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.28, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 8.4, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "pitcher_id": 650633, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 430, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "skill_score": 50.2, "opportunity_score": 53.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.9, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 40.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.1568, "model_under_probability": 0.8432, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1887, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0319, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0319, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.058, "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.36, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ben Brown", "pitcher_id": 676962, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-30T12:52:59.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -125, "under_odds": -105, "expected_strikeouts": 4.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.91, "skill_score": 44.1, "opportunity_score": 20.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 78.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5222, "model_under_probability": 0.4778, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5203, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4797, "edge_over": -0.0334, "edge_under": -0.0344, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0334, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.031, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8699.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "pitcher_id": 607625, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 152, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.83, "skill_score": 10.3, "opportunity_score": 69.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 22.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3569, "model_under_probability": 0.6431, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3968, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0399, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0399, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 85.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "pitcher_id": 664285, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 210, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.15, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.57, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.15, "skill_score": 20.5, "opportunity_score": 45.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 55.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2755, "model_under_probability": 0.7245, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3226, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0471, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0471, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.58, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.115, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33697.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.94, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 16.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 580, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.65, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.65, "skill_score": 2.8, "opportunity_score": 49.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.0976, "model_under_probability": 0.9024, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1471, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0495, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0495, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.994, "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -270, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.65, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.65, "skill_score": 2.8, "opportunity_score": 49.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6768, "model_under_probability": 0.3232, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7297, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0529, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0529, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.994, "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "pitcher_id": 663903, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -225, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.57, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.57, "skill_score": 19.1, "opportunity_score": 33.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 73.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6373, "model_under_probability": 0.3627, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6923, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.055, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.055, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.068, "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.24, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 63.1, "wind_speed_mph": 8.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "pitcher_id": 650633, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 225, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "skill_score": 50.2, "opportunity_score": 53.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.9, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 40.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2513, "model_under_probability": 0.7487, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3077, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0564, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0564, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.058, "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.36, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "pitcher_id": 543243, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 132, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.94, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.94, "skill_score": 16.4, "opportunity_score": 18.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 91.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3738, "model_under_probability": 0.6262, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.431, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0572, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0572, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.64, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.138, "aggregate_matchup_score": 70.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.79, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 61.7, "wind_speed_mph": 10.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "pitcher_id": 663903, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -600, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.57, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.57, "skill_score": 19.1, "opportunity_score": 33.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 73.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.798, "model_under_probability": 0.202, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8571, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0591, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0591, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.068, "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.24, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 63.1, "wind_speed_mph": 8.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "pitcher_id": 677958, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -450, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.18, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.18, "skill_score": 2.9, "opportunity_score": 18.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 85.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.7528, "model_under_probability": 0.2472, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8182, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0654, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0654, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.99, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.26, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 85.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ben Brown", "pitcher_id": 676962, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -900, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.91, "skill_score": 44.1, "opportunity_score": 20.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 78.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.8311, "model_under_probability": 0.1689, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0689, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0689, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.031, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8699.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 640, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "skill_score": 21.4, "opportunity_score": 54.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 49.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.066, "model_under_probability": 0.934, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1351, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0691, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0691, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.07, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "pitcher_id": 677958, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -186, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.18, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.18, "skill_score": 2.9, "opportunity_score": 18.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 85.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5758, "model_under_probability": 0.4242, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6503, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0745, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0745, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.99, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.26, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 85.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 290, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.65, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.65, "skill_score": 2.8, "opportunity_score": 49.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1808, "model_under_probability": 0.8192, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2564, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0756, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0756, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.994, "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ben Brown", "pitcher_id": 676962, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -340, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.91, "skill_score": 44.1, "opportunity_score": 20.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 78.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6851, "model_under_probability": 0.3149, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7727, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0876, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0876, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.031, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8699.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "pitcher_id": 656605, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -310, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.73, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "skill_score": 21.5, "opportunity_score": 59.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 32.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6605, "model_under_probability": 0.3395, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7561, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0956, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0956, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.105, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35103.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.55, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 8.4, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 144, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.65, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.65, "skill_score": 2.8, "opportunity_score": 49.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3089, "model_under_probability": 0.6911, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4098, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1009, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1009, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.994, "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "pitcher_id": 656605, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1100, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.73, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "skill_score": 21.5, "opportunity_score": 59.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 32.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8143, "model_under_probability": 0.1857, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9167, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1024, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1024, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.105, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35103.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.55, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 67.1, "wind_speed_mph": 8.4, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "pitcher_id": 543243, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1600, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.94, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.94, "skill_score": 16.4, "opportunity_score": 18.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 91.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.8337, "model_under_probability": 0.1663, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9412, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1075, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1075, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.64, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.138, "aggregate_matchup_score": 70.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.79, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 61.7, "wind_speed_mph": 10.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "pitcher_id": 607625, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1450, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.83, "skill_score": 10.3, "opportunity_score": 69.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 22.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8238, "model_under_probability": 0.1762, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9355, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1117, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1117, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 85.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "pitcher_id": 650633, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -2000, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "skill_score": 50.2, "opportunity_score": 53.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.9, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 40.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.8363, "model_under_probability": 0.1637, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9524, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1161, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1161, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.058, "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.36, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "pitcher_id": 664285, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -3000, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.15, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.57, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.15, "skill_score": 20.5, "opportunity_score": 45.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 55.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8512, "model_under_probability": 0.1488, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9677, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1165, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1165, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.58, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.115, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33697.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.94, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 16.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 320, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "skill_score": 21.4, "opportunity_score": 54.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 49.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1186, "model_under_probability": 0.8814, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2381, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1195, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1195, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.07, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "pitcher_id": 543243, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -440, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.94, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.94, "skill_score": 16.4, "opportunity_score": 18.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 91.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6891, "model_under_probability": 0.3109, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8148, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1257, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1257, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.64, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.138, "aggregate_matchup_score": 70.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.79, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 61.7, "wind_speed_mph": 10.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "pitcher_id": 607625, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -400, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.83, "skill_score": 10.3, "opportunity_score": 69.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 22.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6743, "model_under_probability": 0.3257, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1257, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1257, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 85.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "pitcher_id": 664285, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -650, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.15, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.57, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.15, "skill_score": 20.5, "opportunity_score": 45.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 55.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7157, "model_under_probability": 0.2843, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8667, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.151, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.151, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.58, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.115, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33697.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.94, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 16.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "pitcher_id": 650633, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -215, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "skill_score": 50.2, "opportunity_score": 53.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.9, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 40.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.5315, "model_under_probability": 0.4685, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6825, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.151, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.151, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.058, "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.36, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "pitcher_id": 664285, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -250, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.15, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.57, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.15, "skill_score": 20.5, "opportunity_score": 45.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 55.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5587, "model_under_probability": 0.4413, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7143, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1556, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1556, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.58, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.115, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33697.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.94, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 16.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "pitcher_id": 650633, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -580, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "skill_score": 50.2, "opportunity_score": 53.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.9, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 40.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.693, "model_under_probability": 0.307, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8529, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1599, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1599, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.058, "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.36, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -4500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "skill_score": 21.4, "opportunity_score": 54.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 49.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7991, "model_under_probability": 0.2009, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9783, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1792, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1792, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.07, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 162, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "skill_score": 21.4, "opportunity_score": 54.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 49.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2008, "model_under_probability": 0.7992, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3817, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1809, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1809, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.07, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1000, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "skill_score": 21.4, "opportunity_score": 54.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 49.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6388, "model_under_probability": 0.3612, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9091, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2703, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2703, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.07, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -340, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "skill_score": 21.4, "opportunity_score": 54.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 49.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4693, "model_under_probability": 0.5307, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7727, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.3034, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.3034, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.07, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [ { "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Sproat", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Sproat", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Sproat", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Sproat", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Sproat", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Sproat", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Sproat", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Sproat", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Sproat", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Christian Scott", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Christian Scott", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Christian Scott", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Christian Scott", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Christian Scott", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Christian Scott", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Christian Scott", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Christian Scott", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Christian Scott", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Leahy", "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Leahy", "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Leahy", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Leahy", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Leahy", "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Leahy", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Leahy", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Leahy", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 8.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick 10+ Strikeouts", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 9.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 8.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Reid Detmers", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Reid Detmers", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Reid Detmers", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Reid Detmers", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Reid Detmers", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Reid Detmers", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Reid Detmers", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Reid Detmers", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Reid Detmers", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Reid Detmers", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 8.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Roki Sasaki", "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Roki Sasaki", "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Roki Sasaki", "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trey Yesavage", "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trey Yesavage", "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trey Yesavage", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trey Yesavage", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trey Yesavage", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trey Yesavage", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trey Yesavage", "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trey Yesavage", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trey Yesavage", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 8.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trey Yesavage 10+ Strikeouts", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 9.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." } ] }