{ "date": "2026-05-23", "generated_at": "2026-05-22T23:35:59.743599", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "projection_date": "2026-05-23", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 14, "matched_count": 12, "unmatched_count": 2 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 12, "grouped_pitcher_count": 12, "sportsbook_count": 1 }, "edge_count": 12, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "pitcher_id": 676974, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -144, "under_odds": 118, "expected_strikeouts": 4.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.96, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.91, "skill_score": 44.1, "opportunity_score": 41.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.1, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 52.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3692, "model_under_probability": 0.6308, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5627, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4373, "edge_over": -0.221, "edge_under": 0.1721, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1721, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.99, "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9067.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 118, "under_odds": -144, "expected_strikeouts": 4.2, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.2, "skill_score": 20.1, "opportunity_score": 52.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 53.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2603, "model_under_probability": 0.7397, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4373, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5627, "edge_over": -0.1984, "edge_under": 0.1495, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1495, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.076, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.77, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 57.7, "wind_speed_mph": 8.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -105, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 5.78, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.33, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.78, "skill_score": 55.4, "opportunity_score": 58.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.0, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 55.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3621, "model_under_probability": 0.6379, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4892, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5108, "edge_over": -0.1501, "edge_under": 0.103, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.103, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.063, "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.99, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 49.6, "wind_speed_mph": 20.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "pitcher_id": 677960, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -102, "under_odds": -120, "expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.85, "skill_score": 54.6, "opportunity_score": 49.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 40.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3599, "model_under_probability": 0.6401, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4807, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5193, "edge_over": -0.1451, "edge_under": 0.0946, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0946, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.923, "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.22, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 57.7, "wind_speed_mph": 8.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Slade Cecconi", "pitcher_id": 677944, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -134, "expected_strikeouts": 4.04, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.04, "skill_score": 11.8, "opportunity_score": 42.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 50.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3773, "model_under_probability": 0.6227, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5726, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.454, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.546, "edge_over": -0.0989, "edge_under": 0.0501, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0501, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.064, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15077.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 52.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Erick Fedde", "pitcher_id": 607200, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 128, "under_odds": -158, "expected_strikeouts": 3.59, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.27, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.59, "skill_score": 8.8, "opportunity_score": 36.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 64.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.47, "model_under_probability": 0.53, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4386, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4173, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5827, "edge_over": 0.0314, "edge_under": -0.0824, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0314, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.109, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21694.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 56.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Adrian Houser", "pitcher_id": 605288, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -160, "under_odds": 130, "expected_strikeouts": 3.95, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.95, "skill_score": 3.9, "opportunity_score": 43.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 56.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5363, "model_under_probability": 0.4637, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.586, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.414, "edge_over": -0.0791, "edge_under": 0.0289, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0289, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.051, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17064.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.44, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 56.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "pitcher_id": 554430, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -162, "under_odds": 132, "expected_strikeouts": 6.9, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.77, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.9, "skill_score": 34.2, "opportunity_score": 65.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 21.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.6425, "model_under_probability": 0.3575, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6183, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.431, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5892, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4108, "edge_over": 0.0242, "edge_under": -0.0735, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0242, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.019, "aggregate_matchup_score": 82.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33971.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.65, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 52.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Patrick Corbin", "pitcher_id": 571578, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -106, "under_odds": -114, "expected_strikeouts": 4.45, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.45, "skill_score": 9.8, "opportunity_score": 22.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 78.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4476, "model_under_probability": 0.5524, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5146, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5327, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4914, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5086, "edge_over": -0.067, "edge_under": 0.0197, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0197, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33148.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 49.6, "wind_speed_mph": 20.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "pitcher_id": 642547, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -122, "expected_strikeouts": 5.85, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.85, "skill_score": 31.1, "opportunity_score": 58.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5085, "model_under_probability": 0.4915, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4764, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5236, "edge_over": 0.0085, "edge_under": -0.058, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0085, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.31, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.056, "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.12, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "pitcher_id": 669923, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 132, "under_odds": -162, "expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.23, "skill_score": 21.8, "opportunity_score": 65.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 24.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.418, "model_under_probability": 0.582, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.431, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6183, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4108, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5892, "edge_over": -0.013, "edge_under": -0.0363, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.013, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.997, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30773.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.11, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.4, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Stephen Kolek", "pitcher_id": 663568, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 134, "under_odds": -164, "expected_strikeouts": 4.25, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.25, "skill_score": 4.9, "opportunity_score": 57.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 41.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4137, "model_under_probability": 0.5863, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4274, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6212, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4076, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5924, "edge_over": -0.0137, "edge_under": -0.0349, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0137, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8445.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.4, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [ { "pitcher_name": "Robert Gasser", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Roki Sasaki", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." } ] }