Methodology
How Betting Differs From Projections
Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.
Projection Input
Adjusted Ks Are The Anchor
This page reads the saved strikeout-props artifact as its projection source of truth. The betting layer does not alter the underlying projection model.
Probability Math
Whole Lines Track Pushes
Whole-number lines expose push probability, while half-lines collapse cleanly into over and under tails. Both are derived from the same saved count distribution used by the props board.
Implieds
Raw First, No-Vig Stored
Raw implied probabilities remain the main public-facing comparison inputs for now. No-vig implied probabilities are stored in the artifact and ready for later surface expansion.
Later
Built For More Markets
This section can grow into home run market gaps, hit props, NRFI, and parlay-style tools while keeping Projections and Betting clearly separated on the site.
