Heads up
The Mirror is being actively tuned right now. Some live figures may lag or look off while we work through a few issues, so treat numbers here as provisional. Full accuracy back shortly.
The Mirror / 2026-09-26 beta
STL 2, MIL 3. Final.
The Mirror’s record: every call graded →
Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.
Final
STL 2, MIL 3
The final result has replaced the last live pitch state. Published 04:34:54Z UTC · back to slate
2 – 3final score
5total runs
62% → 100%MIL win prob, pregame → final
Pregame baseline
St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers
Mathews, Quinn vs May, Dustin · engine 0.1.13 · back to slate
STL 38.0%MIL 62.0%
4.0 – 4.82mean score
8.83mean total
51%NRFI
10.0%extra innings
5.64 / 5.45starter K means
Run distributions
Total runs across 8,000 sims
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Hover a bar for the probability of that exact total.
Team run distributions
STL (gold) vs MIL (cyan)
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Paired bars per run count.
Projected batting lines
STL per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wetherholt, JJ | 4.82 | 1.101 | 0.093 | 1.582 | 0.476 | 0.99 | 0.402 |
| Herrera, Iván | 4.709 | 1.089 | 0.094 | 1.598 | 0.463 | 1.092 | 0.42 |
| Burleson, Alec | 4.597 | 1.223 | 0.113 | 1.875 | 0.377 | 0.995 | 0.526 |
| Walker, Jordan | 4.49 | 1.126 | 0.134 | 1.837 | 0.35 | 1.344 | 0.585 |
| Bernal, Leo | 4.385 | 1.107 | 0.113 | 1.69 | 0.334 | 1.194 | 0.571 |
| Gorman, Nolan | 4.281 | 0.768 | 0.088 | 1.158 | 0.435 | 1.472 | 0.38 |
| Torres, Bryan | 4.168 | 0.909 | 0.071 | 1.296 | 0.382 | 1.06 | 0.355 |
| Saggese, Thomas | 4.055 | 0.924 | 0.082 | 1.371 | 0.313 | 1.212 | 0.384 |
| Church, Nathan | 3.939 | 0.965 | 0.067 | 1.354 | 0.254 | 0.831 | 0.381 |
Projected batting lines
MIL per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chourio, Jackson | 4.765 | 1.292 | 0.169 | 2.136 | 0.433 | 1.29 | 0.638 |
| Turang, Brice | 4.646 | 1.144 | 0.116 | 1.782 | 0.584 | 1.312 | 0.547 |
| Bauers, Jake | 4.534 | 1.082 | 0.18 | 1.932 | 0.706 | 1.332 | 0.693 |
| Contreras, William | 4.426 | 1.161 | 0.115 | 1.77 | 0.426 | 0.808 | 0.652 |
| Sánchez, Gary | 4.318 | 0.884 | 0.143 | 1.512 | 0.634 | 1.052 | 0.562 |
| Lara, Luis | 4.217 | 0.997 | 0.048 | 1.321 | 0.381 | 1.073 | 0.421 |
| Pratt, Cooper | 4.113 | 1.044 | 0.061 | 1.416 | 0.43 | 0.94 | 0.433 |
| Lockridge, Brandon | 4.005 | 1.031 | 0.061 | 1.401 | 0.361 | 1.157 | 0.452 |
| Hamilton, David | 3.888 | 0.923 | 0.049 | 1.237 | 0.358 | 1.0 | 0.424 |
One representative simulation
A median-outcome game, batter by batter
This is the play-by-play of one sim whose final total matched the median across all runs — a preview of the most typical version of tonight.
— Top 1 —
Wetherholt, JJ vs May, Dustin: OUT GB
Herrera, Iván vs May, Dustin: OUT GB
Burleson, Alec vs May, Dustin: K
— Bottom 1 —
Chourio, Jackson vs Mathews, Quinn: OUT AIR
Turang, Brice vs Mathews, Quinn: OUT AIR
Bauers, Jake vs Mathews, Quinn: OUT AIR
— Top 2 —
Walker, Jordan vs May, Dustin: K
Bernal, Leo vs May, Dustin: 2B
Gorman, Nolan vs May, Dustin: OUT GB
Torres, Bryan vs May, Dustin: K
— Bottom 2 —
Contreras, William vs Mathews, Quinn: OUT GB
Sánchez, Gary vs Mathews, Quinn: OUT GB
Lara, Luis vs Mathews, Quinn: OUT GB
— Top 3 —
Saggese, Thomas vs May, Dustin: 1B
Church, Nathan vs May, Dustin: OUT GB
Wetherholt, JJ vs May, Dustin: 1B
Herrera, Iván vs May, Dustin: OUT AIR
Burleson, Alec vs May, Dustin: OUT AIR
— Bottom 3 —
Pratt, Cooper vs Mathews, Quinn: K
Lockridge, Brandon vs Mathews, Quinn: OUT GB
Hamilton, David vs Mathews, Quinn: OUT AIR
— Top 4 —
Walker, Jordan vs May, Dustin: OUT GB
Bernal, Leo vs May, Dustin: 1B
Gorman, Nolan vs May, Dustin: K
Torres, Bryan vs May, Dustin: OUT GB
— Bottom 4 —
Chourio, Jackson vs Mathews, Quinn: BB
Turang, Brice vs Mathews, Quinn: K
Bauers, Jake vs Mathews, Quinn: 1B
Contreras, William vs Mathews, Quinn: 2B +2 runs (0-2)
Sánchez, Gary vs Mathews, Quinn: OUT GB
Lara, Luis vs Mathews, Quinn: OUT GB
— Top 5 —
Saggese, Thomas vs May, Dustin: 1B
Church, Nathan vs May, Dustin: OUT AIR
Wetherholt, JJ vs May, Dustin: 1B
Herrera, Iván vs May, Dustin: 1B +1 run (1-2)
Burleson, Alec vs May, Dustin: 1B
Walker, Jordan vs May, Dustin: OUT GB
Bernal, Leo vs May, Dustin: BB +1 run (2-2)
Gorman, Nolan vs Ashby, Aaron: K
— Bottom 5 —
Pratt, Cooper vs Mathews, Quinn: OUT AIR
Lockridge, Brandon vs Mathews, Quinn: K
Hamilton, David vs Mathews, Quinn: OUT AIR
— Top 6 —
Torres, Bryan vs Ashby, Aaron: OUT AIR
Saggese, Thomas vs Ashby, Aaron: OUT AIR
Church, Nathan vs Ashby, Aaron: 1B
Wetherholt, JJ vs Fitzpatrick, Brian: OUT GB
— Bottom 6 —
Chourio, Jackson vs Mathews, Quinn: 2B
Turang, Brice vs Mathews, Quinn: K
Bauers, Jake vs Mathews, Quinn: OUT GB
Contreras, William vs Mathews, Quinn: 1B +1 run (2-3)
Sánchez, Gary vs Mathews, Quinn: OUT AIR
— Top 7 —
Herrera, Iván vs Fitzpatrick, Brian: 1B
Burleson, Alec vs Fitzpatrick, Brian: 1B
Walker, Jordan vs Fitzpatrick, Brian: 2B +1 run (3-3)
Bernal, Leo vs Fitzpatrick, Brian: OUT AIR
Gorman, Nolan vs Hall, DL: OUT AIR
Torres, Bryan vs Hall, DL: BB
Saggese, Thomas vs Hall, DL: K
— Bottom 7 —
Lara, Luis vs Mathews, Quinn: OUT GB
Pratt, Cooper vs Mathews, Quinn: OUT GB
Lockridge, Brandon vs Mathews, Quinn: K
— Top 8 —
Church, Nathan vs Hall, DL: OUT AIR
Wetherholt, JJ vs Hall, DL: OUT AIR
Herrera, Iván vs Stallings, Garrett: OUT AIR
— Bottom 8 —
Hamilton, David vs Fernandez, Ryan: OUT AIR
Chourio, Jackson vs Fernandez, Ryan: OUT AIR
Turang, Brice vs Fernandez, Ryan: OUT GB
— Top 9 —
Burleson, Alec vs Stallings, Garrett: OUT AIR
Walker, Jordan vs Stallings, Garrett: OUT AIR
Bernal, Leo vs Stallings, Garrett: 1B
Gorman, Nolan vs Megill, Trevor: OUT AIR
— Bottom 9 —
Bauers, Jake vs Fernandez, Ryan: 1B
Contreras, William vs Fernandez, Ryan: HR +2 runs (3-5)