Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 26 |
| Height | 5' 10" |
| Weight | 180 lb |
| Debut | 2025-08-17 |
Player profile / St. Louis Cardinals
Nathan Church
LF · Bats/Throws L/L · 5' 10", 180 lb · Age 26
Club St. Louis Cardinals
Position LF
Roster Active
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 65 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 1 | .179 | .254 | .250 | .504 |
| 2026 | 254 | 30 | 56 | 8 | 5 | .236 | .280 | .384 | .664 |
| 2 Seasons | 319 | 39 | 66 | 9 | 6 | .225 | .274 | .358 | .632 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
29
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.272 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.281 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.277 |
| Observed weight | 55% |
xwOBA
0.244
0.259
0.277
0.294
0.310
wOBA
0.279
0.296
0.316
0.335
0.352
ISO
0.086
0.105
0.127
0.149
0.169
K%
15.3%
17.6%
20.3%
22.9%
25.3%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.6%
57
+32 vs proj
Exit velocity84.6
14
Hard-hit%31.0%
17
xBA0.300
26
xSLG0.474
37
xwOBA0.281
24
BB%5.6%
18
-21 vs proj
Bat speed66.8
19
K%20.4%
63
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.7 · CF
31
Arm Strength97.1 · CF
79
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · CF
22
Range Runs1.5 · CF
69
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.2 · CF
76
SB Success Rate71.4% · CF
28
Sprint Speed28.4 · CF
79
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 52.4% · rebadged research
6
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.9% · rebadged research
25
Correct Decisions60.3% · rebadged research
10
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.266 · borderline
89
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.286 · insufficient sample
30
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.277 · validated thin sample
62
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.375 · insufficient sample
2
Resists FastballwOBA 0.320 · validated
83
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360 · validated
45
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline86
8
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
140 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.008 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.027 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Church’s wOBA sits at 0.316, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.281 — a gap of 0.035, -1.2 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 270 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giménez, Andrés TOR · L | 0.75 | Ground-ball rateIn-zone contact | Player · Projection |
| Duran, Ezequiel TEX · R | 0.74 | Swing lengthPull rate | Player · Projection |
| McCarthy, Jake COL · L | 0.68 | Walk rateWhiff rate | Player · Projection |
| Rafaela, Ceddanne BOS · R | 0.68 | xwOBA on contactWalk rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Mithrandir card history is available for this player yet. | |||
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.288 xwOBA | 6 HR | Projection |
| 2026-05-20 vs PIT0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 1-4 | 2 K |
| 2026-04-17 @ HOU0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 1-3 | BB, K, SB |
| 2026-04-15 vs CLE0 HR | 1 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 3-4 | 2B, RBI, 2 R |
| 2026-04-14 vs CLE0 HR | 1 RBI / 1 Ch | 0 E | 0-0 | RBI |
| 2026-04-13 vs CLE0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 0-2 |