Mithrandir Metrics
The Mirror live sim Refreshed Sep 27 06:00 AM ET
Heads up The Mirror is being actively tuned right now. Some live figures may lag or look off while we work through a few issues, so treat numbers here as provisional. Full accuracy back shortly.
The Mirror / 2026-09-26 beta

TEX 6, MIN 2. Final.

The Mirror’s record: every call graded →

Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.

Final

TEX 6, MIN 2

The final result has replaced the last live pitch state. Published 04:34:54Z UTC · back to slate

Final
6 – 2final score
8total runs
54% → 0%MIN win prob, pregame → final
Pregame baseline

Texas Rangers @ Minnesota Twins

Eovaldi, Nathan vs Ober, Bailey · engine 0.1.13 · back to slate

2026-09-26
TEX 45.5%MIN 54.5%
3.8 – 3.97mean score
7.77mean total
56%NRFI
10.8%extra innings
5.38 / 4.87starter K means
Run distributions

Total runs across 8,000 sims

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Hover a bar for the probability of that exact total.

Team run distributions

TEX (gold) vs MIN (cyan)

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Paired bars per run count.

Projected batting lines

TEX per-game means

BatterPAHHRTBBBKRBI
Nimmo, Brandon 4.7361.1690.1 1.7240.3481.090.407
Langford, Wyatt 4.6281.0380.151 1.7450.4651.0360.514
Seager, Corey 4.5170.9930.171 1.7280.4111.0870.545
Burger, Jake 4.4130.9710.173 1.7130.3491.1650.543
Duran, Ezequiel 4.3031.0670.118 1.6690.3021.0080.467
Lopez, Nicky 4.21.0370.045 1.3090.2420.7450.344
Jansen, Danny 4.0880.8280.1 1.3050.3211.0070.37
Carter, Evan 3.9710.7340.073 1.0870.3661.0320.305
Osuna, Alejandro 3.8490.9410.041 1.2010.2770.6750.306
Projected batting lines

MIN per-game means

BatterPAHHRTBBBKRBI
Keaschall, Luke 4.5131.1830.1 1.730.3170.80.373
Lee, Brooks 4.4091.1330.18 1.9220.2350.8920.542
Clemens, Kody 4.2981.0420.209 1.9420.2441.0990.59
Bell, Josh 4.1881.00.134 1.6080.2790.9850.468
Jenkins, Walker 4.0870.990.172 1.730.320.9570.509
Roden, Alan 3.9810.9720.087 1.4190.3170.8210.368
Lewis, Royce 3.8770.830.116 1.3460.2471.0890.396
Caratini, Victor 3.7470.8080.099 1.2360.2660.930.353
Culpepper, Kaelen 3.6250.8870.106 1.3880.2320.8840.374
One representative simulation

A median-outcome game, batter by batter

This is the play-by-play of one sim whose final total matched the median across all runs — a preview of the most typical version of tonight.

— Top 1 —
Nimmo, Brandon vs Ober, Bailey: OUT GB
Langford, Wyatt vs Ober, Bailey: OUT AIR
Seager, Corey vs Ober, Bailey: OUT AIR
— Bottom 1 —
Keaschall, Luke vs Eovaldi, Nathan: OUT AIR
Lee, Brooks vs Eovaldi, Nathan: OUT AIR
Clemens, Kody vs Eovaldi, Nathan: OUT AIR
— Top 2 —
Burger, Jake vs Ober, Bailey: OUT GB
Duran, Ezequiel vs Ober, Bailey: OUT GB
Lopez, Nicky vs Ober, Bailey: K
— Bottom 2 —
Bell, Josh vs Eovaldi, Nathan: OUT AIR
Jenkins, Walker vs Eovaldi, Nathan: OUT AIR
Roden, Alan vs Eovaldi, Nathan: OUT AIR
— Top 3 —
Jansen, Danny vs Ober, Bailey: K
Carter, Evan vs Ober, Bailey: 1B
Osuna, Alejandro vs Ober, Bailey: OUT AIR
Nimmo, Brandon vs Ober, Bailey: OUT GB
— Bottom 3 —
Lewis, Royce vs Eovaldi, Nathan: OUT GB
Caratini, Victor vs Eovaldi, Nathan: OUT GB
Culpepper, Kaelen vs Eovaldi, Nathan: OUT GB
— Top 4 —
Langford, Wyatt vs Ober, Bailey: OUT AIR
Seager, Corey vs Ober, Bailey: OUT GB
Burger, Jake vs Ober, Bailey: OUT AIR
— Bottom 4 —
Keaschall, Luke vs Eovaldi, Nathan: OUT AIR
Lee, Brooks vs Eovaldi, Nathan: 1B
Clemens, Kody vs Eovaldi, Nathan: OUT AIR
Bell, Josh vs Eovaldi, Nathan: OUT AIR
— Top 5 —
Duran, Ezequiel vs Ober, Bailey: K
Lopez, Nicky vs Ober, Bailey: OUT GB
Jansen, Danny vs Ober, Bailey: OUT AIR
— Bottom 5 —
Jenkins, Walker vs Eovaldi, Nathan: OUT AIR
Roden, Alan vs Eovaldi, Nathan: OUT GB
Lewis, Royce vs Eovaldi, Nathan: K
— Top 6 —
Carter, Evan vs Ober, Bailey: OUT GB
Osuna, Alejandro vs Ober, Bailey: 1B
Nimmo, Brandon vs Ober, Bailey: K
Langford, Wyatt vs Ober, Bailey: OUT GB
— Bottom 6 —
Caratini, Victor vs Eovaldi, Nathan: HR +1 run (0-1)
Culpepper, Kaelen vs Eovaldi, Nathan: 1B
Keaschall, Luke vs Eovaldi, Nathan: 1B
Lee, Brooks vs Eovaldi, Nathan: OUT GB
Clemens, Kody vs Eovaldi, Nathan: OUT AIR
Bell, Josh vs Eovaldi, Nathan: OUT GB
— Top 7 —
Seager, Corey vs Ober, Bailey: 1B
Burger, Jake vs Ober, Bailey: 2B +1 run (1-1)
Duran, Ezequiel vs Ober, Bailey: 1B
Lopez, Nicky vs Ober, Bailey: OUT AIR
Jansen, Danny vs Banda, Anthony: K
Carter, Evan vs Banda, Anthony: K
— Bottom 7 —
Jenkins, Walker vs Eovaldi, Nathan: OUT AIR
Roden, Alan vs Eovaldi, Nathan: OUT AIR
Lewis, Royce vs Eovaldi, Nathan: OUT AIR
— Top 8 —
Osuna, Alejandro vs Banda, Anthony: 1B
Nimmo, Brandon vs Banda, Anthony: K
Langford, Wyatt vs Adams, Travis: K
Seager, Corey vs Adams, Travis: OUT GB
— Bottom 8 —
Caratini, Victor vs Eovaldi, Nathan: 1B
Culpepper, Kaelen vs Gray, Peyton: OUT AIR
Keaschall, Luke vs Gray, Peyton: 1B
Lee, Brooks vs Gray, Peyton: 1B +1 run (1-2)
Clemens, Kody vs Gray, Peyton: OUT GB
Bell, Josh vs Gray, Peyton: 2B +1 run (1-3)
Jenkins, Walker vs Winn, Cole: HR +3 runs (1-6)
Roden, Alan vs Winn, Cole: K
— Top 9 —
Burger, Jake vs Adams, Travis: OUT GB
Duran, Ezequiel vs Adams, Travis: OUT GB
Lopez, Nicky vs Adams, Travis: K