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The Mirror is being actively tuned right now. Some live figures may lag or look off while we work through a few issues, so treat numbers here as provisional. Full accuracy back shortly.
The Mirror / 2026-09-26 beta
AZ 7, SD 10. Final.
The Mirror’s record: every call graded →
Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.
Final
AZ 7, SD 10
The final result has replaced the last live pitch state. Published 04:34:54Z UTC · back to slate
7 – 10final score
17total runs
43% → 100%SD win prob, pregame → final
Pregame baseline
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres
Clarke, Taylor vs Buehler, Walker · engine 0.1.13 · back to slate
AZ 56.8%SD 43.2%
4.49 – 3.67mean score
8.16mean total
56%NRFI
10.5%extra innings
1.19 / 4.71starter K means
Run distributions
Total runs across 8,000 sims
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Hover a bar for the probability of that exact total.
Team run distributions
AZ (gold) vs SD (cyan)
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Paired bars per run count.
Projected batting lines
AZ per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nootbaar, Lars | 4.878 | 1.032 | 0.121 | 1.601 | 0.6 | 1.248 | 0.372 |
| Marte, Ketel | 4.755 | 1.103 | 0.167 | 1.86 | 0.4 | 0.878 | 0.526 |
| Moreno, Gabriel | 4.633 | 1.287 | 0.153 | 2.056 | 0.508 | 0.89 | 0.597 |
| Perdomo, Geraldo | 4.533 | 1.051 | 0.068 | 1.449 | 0.563 | 0.755 | 0.462 |
| Carroll, Corbin | 4.434 | 0.932 | 0.141 | 1.621 | 0.462 | 1.211 | 0.591 |
| Arenado, Nolan | 4.326 | 0.988 | 0.19 | 1.804 | 0.373 | 1.077 | 0.661 |
| Smith, Pavin | 4.219 | 0.864 | 0.108 | 1.332 | 0.374 | 1.147 | 0.422 |
| McCann, James | 4.111 | 0.996 | 0.132 | 1.611 | 0.253 | 1.211 | 0.464 |
| Tawa, Tim | 3.994 | 0.858 | 0.118 | 1.387 | 0.33 | 1.174 | 0.398 |
Projected batting lines
SD per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatis Jr., Fernando | 4.556 | 1.147 | 0.128 | 1.823 | 0.386 | 1.034 | 0.461 |
| Harris, Dustin | 4.44 | 1.099 | 0.055 | 1.477 | 0.34 | 0.906 | 0.377 |
| Machado, Manny | 4.33 | 0.797 | 0.151 | 1.419 | 0.424 | 1.084 | 0.48 |
| Merrill, Jackson | 4.23 | 0.95 | 0.137 | 1.595 | 0.245 | 1.156 | 0.496 |
| France, Ty | 4.132 | 1.053 | 0.151 | 1.768 | 0.27 | 1.006 | 0.503 |
| Sheets, Gavin | 4.028 | 0.797 | 0.138 | 1.391 | 0.4 | 0.954 | 0.41 |
| Bogaerts, Xander | 3.916 | 0.783 | 0.069 | 1.131 | 0.446 | 0.894 | 0.289 |
| Cronenworth, Jake | 3.799 | 0.783 | 0.057 | 1.084 | 0.36 | 1.032 | 0.292 |
| Salas, Ethan | 3.678 | 0.799 | 0.088 | 1.234 | 0.326 | 0.932 | 0.361 |
One representative simulation
A median-outcome game, batter by batter
This is the play-by-play of one sim whose final total matched the median across all runs — a preview of the most typical version of tonight.
— Top 1 —
Nootbaar, Lars vs Buehler, Walker: 2B
Marte, Ketel vs Buehler, Walker: 1B +1 run (1-0)
Moreno, Gabriel vs Buehler, Walker: K
Perdomo, Geraldo vs Buehler, Walker: 1B
Carroll, Corbin vs Buehler, Walker: HR +3 runs (4-0)
Arenado, Nolan vs Buehler, Walker: BB
Smith, Pavin vs Buehler, Walker: K
McCann, James vs Buehler, Walker: OUT AIR
— Bottom 1 —
Tatis Jr., Fernando vs Clarke, Taylor: OUT GB
Harris, Dustin vs Clarke, Taylor: K
Machado, Manny vs Clarke, Taylor: OUT GB
— Top 2 —
Tawa, Tim vs Buehler, Walker: K
Nootbaar, Lars vs Buehler, Walker: OUT GB
Marte, Ketel vs Buehler, Walker: 1B
Moreno, Gabriel vs Buehler, Walker: OUT AIR
— Bottom 2 —
Merrill, Jackson vs Clarke, Taylor: OUT GB
France, Ty vs Clarke, Taylor: OUT GB
Sheets, Gavin vs Clarke, Taylor: OUT AIR
— Top 3 —
Perdomo, Geraldo vs Buehler, Walker: 1B
Carroll, Corbin vs Buehler, Walker: K
Arenado, Nolan vs Buehler, Walker: K
Smith, Pavin vs Buehler, Walker: OUT GB
— Bottom 3 —
Bogaerts, Xander vs Garcia, Brandyn: 1B
Cronenworth, Jake vs Garcia, Brandyn: OUT GB
Salas, Ethan vs Garcia, Brandyn: OUT AIR
Tatis Jr., Fernando vs Garcia, Brandyn: OUT AIR
— Top 4 —
McCann, James vs Buehler, Walker: K
Tawa, Tim vs Buehler, Walker: OUT GB
Nootbaar, Lars vs Buehler, Walker: K
— Bottom 4 —
Harris, Dustin vs Garcia, Brandyn: BB
Machado, Manny vs Garcia, Brandyn: K
Merrill, Jackson vs Garcia, Brandyn: K
France, Ty vs Garcia, Brandyn: K
— Top 5 —
Marte, Ketel vs Buehler, Walker: OUT AIR
Moreno, Gabriel vs Buehler, Walker: BB
Perdomo, Geraldo vs Buehler, Walker: OUT GB
— Bottom 5 —
Sheets, Gavin vs Garcia, Brandyn: 1B
Bogaerts, Xander vs Garcia, Brandyn: OUT AIR
Cronenworth, Jake vs Garcia, Brandyn: OUT GB
Salas, Ethan vs Garcia, Brandyn: OUT AIR
— Top 6 —
Carroll, Corbin vs Morejon, Adrian: 1B
Arenado, Nolan vs Morejon, Adrian: K
Smith, Pavin vs Morejon, Adrian: OUT AIR
McCann, James vs Morejon, Adrian: 1B +1 run (5-0)
Tawa, Tim vs Matsui, Yuki: OUT AIR
— Bottom 6 —
Tatis Jr., Fernando vs Law, Derek: 2B
Harris, Dustin vs Law, Derek: BB
Machado, Manny vs Law, Derek: OUT AIR
Merrill, Jackson vs Law, Derek: K
France, Ty vs Law, Derek: OUT GB
— Top 7 —
Nootbaar, Lars vs Matsui, Yuki: OUT AIR
Marte, Ketel vs Matsui, Yuki: BB
Moreno, Gabriel vs Matsui, Yuki: 1B
Perdomo, Geraldo vs Morgan, David: 1B +1 run (6-0)
Carroll, Corbin vs Morgan, David: K
Arenado, Nolan vs Morgan, David: 2B +1 run (7-0)
Smith, Pavin vs Morgan, David: OUT AIR
— Bottom 7 —
Sheets, Gavin vs Rashi, Taylor: OUT GB
Bogaerts, Xander vs Rashi, Taylor: K
Cronenworth, Jake vs Rashi, Taylor: K
— Top 8 —
McCann, James vs Morgan, David: K
Tawa, Tim vs Jacob, Alek: 2B
Nootbaar, Lars vs Jacob, Alek: BB
Marte, Ketel vs Jacob, Alek: OUT GB
Moreno, Gabriel vs Jacob, Alek: K
— Bottom 8 —
Salas, Ethan vs Rashi, Taylor: K
Tatis Jr., Fernando vs Rashi, Taylor: HR +1 run (7-1)
Harris, Dustin vs Loáisiga, Jonathan: K
Machado, Manny vs Loáisiga, Jonathan: OUT GB
— Top 9 —
Perdomo, Geraldo vs Jacob, Alek: K
Carroll, Corbin vs Brito, Jhony: 2B
Arenado, Nolan vs Brito, Jhony: OUT GB
Smith, Pavin vs Brito, Jhony: K
— Bottom 9 —
Merrill, Jackson vs Loáisiga, Jonathan: OUT GB
France, Ty vs Loáisiga, Jonathan: 1B
Sheets, Gavin vs Loáisiga, Jonathan: K
Bogaerts, Xander vs Loáisiga, Jonathan: K