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The Mirror is being actively tuned right now. Some live figures may lag or look off while we work through a few issues, so treat numbers here as provisional. Full accuracy back shortly.
The Mirror / 2026-09-26 beta
CIN 5, TOR 1. Final.
The Mirror’s record: every call graded →
Batter-by-batter Monte Carlo: each plate appearance is a real matchup probability, played through a full base-out state machine with starter fatigue and bullpen chains. Validated against 358 completed games before launch.
Final
CIN 5, TOR 1
The final result has replaced the last live pitch state. Published 04:34:54Z UTC · back to slate
5 – 1final score
6total runs
62% → 0%TOR win prob, pregame → final
Pregame baseline
Cincinnati Reds @ Toronto Blue Jays
Lowder, Rhett vs Yesavage, Trey · engine 0.1.13 · back to slate
CIN 38.1%TOR 61.9%
3.73 – 4.59mean score
8.32mean total
53%NRFI
10.4%extra innings
4.15 / 6.98starter K means
Run distributions
Total runs across 8,000 sims
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Hover a bar for the probability of that exact total.
Team run distributions
CIN (gold) vs TOR (cyan)
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Paired bars per run count.
Projected batting lines
CIN per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jorge, Carlos | 4.697 | 0.905 | 0.114 | 1.451 | 0.428 | 1.414 | 0.343 |
| De La Cruz, Elly | 4.576 | 1.013 | 0.177 | 1.824 | 0.555 | 1.493 | 0.508 |
| Stewart, Sal | 4.462 | 0.93 | 0.166 | 1.651 | 0.468 | 1.237 | 0.51 |
| Suárez, Eugenio | 4.364 | 0.729 | 0.171 | 1.411 | 0.504 | 1.693 | 0.481 |
| Bleday, JJ | 4.259 | 0.731 | 0.149 | 1.343 | 0.552 | 1.194 | 0.422 |
| Stephenson, Tyler | 4.152 | 0.783 | 0.111 | 1.288 | 0.455 | 1.384 | 0.378 |
| Rodríguez, Héctor | 4.046 | 0.785 | 0.129 | 1.338 | 0.305 | 1.262 | 0.4 |
| Brito, Juan | 3.936 | 0.834 | 0.1 | 1.308 | 0.331 | 1.162 | 0.365 |
| McLain, Matt | 3.821 | 0.626 | 0.102 | 1.064 | 0.38 | 1.289 | 0.323 |
Projected batting lines
TOR per-game means
| Batter | PA | H | HR | TB | BB | K | RBI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bateman, Brett | 4.699 | 1.393 | 0.092 | 1.933 | 0.484 | 0.961 | 0.455 |
| Lukes, Nathan | 4.586 | 1.315 | 0.102 | 1.851 | 0.331 | 0.739 | 0.553 |
| Guerrero Jr., Vladimir | 4.471 | 1.191 | 0.083 | 1.638 | 0.442 | 0.654 | 0.52 |
| Kirk, Alejandro | 4.365 | 1.19 | 0.15 | 1.87 | 0.48 | 0.674 | 0.661 |
| Okamoto, Kazuma | 4.263 | 1.034 | 0.199 | 1.887 | 0.419 | 1.162 | 0.699 |
| Keys, Sean | 4.159 | 0.951 | 0.113 | 1.481 | 0.355 | 1.084 | 0.502 |
| Smith, Josh | 4.058 | 0.853 | 0.097 | 1.293 | 0.437 | 0.972 | 0.399 |
| Giménez, Andrés | 3.945 | 1.008 | 0.076 | 1.423 | 0.227 | 0.749 | 0.415 |
| Clement, Ernie | 3.818 | 1.036 | 0.06 | 1.404 | 0.203 | 0.448 | 0.383 |
One representative simulation
A median-outcome game, batter by batter
This is the play-by-play of one sim whose final total matched the median across all runs — a preview of the most typical version of tonight.
— Top 1 —
Jorge, Carlos vs Yesavage, Trey: OUT AIR
De La Cruz, Elly vs Yesavage, Trey: OUT AIR
Stewart, Sal vs Yesavage, Trey: HR +1 run (1-0)
Suárez, Eugenio vs Yesavage, Trey: BB
Bleday, JJ vs Yesavage, Trey: OUT GB
— Bottom 1 —
Bateman, Brett vs Lowder, Rhett: K
Lukes, Nathan vs Lowder, Rhett: 1B
Guerrero Jr., Vladimir vs Lowder, Rhett: 1B
Kirk, Alejandro vs Lowder, Rhett: OUT AIR
Okamoto, Kazuma vs Lowder, Rhett: K
— Top 2 —
Stephenson, Tyler vs Yesavage, Trey: OUT AIR
Rodríguez, Héctor vs Yesavage, Trey: K
Brito, Juan vs Yesavage, Trey: OUT GB
— Bottom 2 —
Keys, Sean vs Lowder, Rhett: 1B
Smith, Josh vs Lowder, Rhett: OUT GB
Giménez, Andrés vs Lowder, Rhett: 1B
Clement, Ernie vs Lowder, Rhett: OUT AIR
Bateman, Brett vs Lowder, Rhett: OUT GB
— Top 3 —
McLain, Matt vs Yesavage, Trey: OUT GB
Jorge, Carlos vs Yesavage, Trey: 1B
De La Cruz, Elly vs Yesavage, Trey: K
— Bottom 3 —
Lukes, Nathan vs Lowder, Rhett: OUT GB
Guerrero Jr., Vladimir vs Lowder, Rhett: OUT AIR
Kirk, Alejandro vs Lowder, Rhett: OUT AIR
— Top 4 —
Stewart, Sal vs Yesavage, Trey: OUT AIR
Suárez, Eugenio vs Yesavage, Trey: OUT AIR
Bleday, JJ vs Yesavage, Trey: OUT GB
— Bottom 4 —
Okamoto, Kazuma vs Lowder, Rhett: OUT AIR
Keys, Sean vs Lowder, Rhett: OUT AIR
Smith, Josh vs Lowder, Rhett: HR +1 run (1-1)
Giménez, Andrés vs Lowder, Rhett: OUT AIR
— Top 5 —
Stephenson, Tyler vs Yesavage, Trey: 1B
Rodríguez, Héctor vs Yesavage, Trey: OUT GB
Brito, Juan vs Yesavage, Trey: 1B
McLain, Matt vs Yesavage, Trey: OUT AIR
Jorge, Carlos vs Yesavage, Trey: 1B +1 run (2-1)
De La Cruz, Elly vs Yesavage, Trey: K
— Bottom 5 —
Clement, Ernie vs Lowder, Rhett: 1B
Bateman, Brett vs Lowder, Rhett: BB
Lukes, Nathan vs Lowder, Rhett: 1B
Guerrero Jr., Vladimir vs Lowder, Rhett: 1B +2 runs (2-3)
Kirk, Alejandro vs Lowder, Rhett: OUT AIR
Okamoto, Kazuma vs Lowder, Rhett: OUT GB
— Top 6 —
Stewart, Sal vs Yesavage, Trey: OUT AIR
Suárez, Eugenio vs Yesavage, Trey: OUT AIR
Bleday, JJ vs Yesavage, Trey: HR +1 run (3-3)
Stephenson, Tyler vs Yesavage, Trey: K
— Bottom 6 —
Keys, Sean vs Lowder, Rhett: K
Smith, Josh vs Moll, Sam: OUT AIR
Giménez, Andrés vs Moll, Sam: K
— Top 7 —
Rodríguez, Héctor vs Little, Brendon: K
Brito, Juan vs Little, Brendon: 1B
McLain, Matt vs Little, Brendon: OUT GB
Jorge, Carlos vs Little, Brendon: HR +2 runs (5-3)
De La Cruz, Elly vs Ponce, Cody: OUT GB
— Bottom 7 —
Clement, Ernie vs Moll, Sam: OUT AIR
Bateman, Brett vs Moll, Sam: 1B
Lukes, Nathan vs Moll, Sam: OUT GB
Guerrero Jr., Vladimir vs Moll, Sam: K
— Top 8 —
Stewart, Sal vs Ponce, Cody: OUT AIR
Suárez, Eugenio vs Ponce, Cody: OUT GB
Bleday, JJ vs Ponce, Cody: BB
Stephenson, Tyler vs Cellucci, Brendan: OUT GB
— Bottom 8 —
Kirk, Alejandro vs Antone, Tejay: BB
Okamoto, Kazuma vs Antone, Tejay: OUT GB
Keys, Sean vs Antone, Tejay: K
— Top 9 —
Rodríguez, Héctor vs Cellucci, Brendan: K
Brito, Juan vs Cellucci, Brendan: 1B
McLain, Matt vs Cellucci, Brendan: OUT GB
Jorge, Carlos vs Cellucci, Brendan: K
— Bottom 9 —
Smith, Josh vs Antone, Tejay: 2B
Giménez, Andrés vs Pagán, Emilio: OUT GB
Clement, Ernie vs Pagán, Emilio: K
Bateman, Brett vs Pagán, Emilio: OUT GB