Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 27 |
| Height | 5' 8" |
| Weight | 180 lb |
| Debut | 2023-05-15 |
Player profile / Cincinnati Reds
Matt Mclain
2B · Bats/Throws R/R · 5' 8", 180 lb · Age 27
Club Cincinnati Reds
Position 2B
Roster Current MLB team
Status Healthy / active roster
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 403 | 65 | 106 | 16 | 14 | .290 | .357 | .507 | .864 |
| 2025 | 577 | 73 | 112 | 15 | 18 | .220 | .300 | .343 | .643 |
| 2026 | 489 | 58 | 81 | 15 | 19 | .188 | .276 | .339 | .615 |
| 3 Seasons | 1469 | 196 | 299 | 46 | 51 | .229 | .308 | .387 | .695 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
49
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.320 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.295 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.302 |
| Observed weight | 70% |
xwOBA
0.280
0.290
0.302
0.315
0.325
wOBA
0.278
0.291
0.304
0.318
0.331
ISO
0.142
0.153
0.165
0.176
0.187
K%
24.9%
26.1%
27.3%
28.6%
29.7%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.9%
67
Exit velocity86.4
34
Hard-hit%37.0%
44
-25 vs proj
xBA0.315
47
xSLG0.536
61
xwOBA0.295
41
-17 vs proj
BB%9.4%
62
Bat speed69.0
42
K%27.5%
25
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.2 · 2B
14
Arm Strength89.6 · 2B
69
Outs Above Avg5.0 · 2B
90
Range Runs4.3 · 2B
86
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.9 · 2B
60
SB Success Rate88.9% · 2B
77
Sprint Speed28.7 · 2B
84
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 69.1% · rebadged research
68
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.1% · rebadged research
40
Correct Decisions67.2% · rebadged research
61
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.291 · borderline
42
Resists FastballwOBA 0.314 · validated
88
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
65
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.272 · insufficient sample
75
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.271 · validated thin sample
75
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.333 · insufficient sample
30
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.334 · validated
89
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
257 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | -0.016 |
| wOBA Δ | -0.007 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Mclain’s wOBA sits at 0.304, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.295 — a gap of 0.010, -0.4 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 510 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beavers, Dylan BAL · L | 0.84 | xwOBA on contactGround-ball rate | Player · Projection |
| Norby, Connor MIA · R | 0.79 | Bat speedHard-hit rate | Player · Projection |
| Benge, Carson NYM · L | 0.67 | Sprint speedOppo rate | Player · Projection |
| Langford, Wyatt TEX · R | 0.66 | Swing lengthxwOBA on contact | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 4 | 2026-08-20 | Impact contact was the main driver |
| Fielding | 19 | 2026-09-24 | 2 chances | 0 difficult plays | Run Exp +0.152 |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.311 xwOBA | 15 HR | Projection |
| 2026-08-15 vs MIA1 HR | 1 RBI / 4 Ch | 0 E | 3-4 | HR, 2B, K |
| 2026-05-20 @ PHI0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 0-5 | K |
| 2026-04-20 @ TB0 HR | 0 RBI / 4 Ch | 0 E | 1-5 | 2B, 2 K, R |
| 2026-04-17 @ MIN0 HR | 0 RBI / 4 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 | 3 K |
| 2026-04-15 vs SF0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 0-2 | 3 BB, K, 2 R |