Reference layer
Current snapshot
| Age | 26 |
| Height | 5' 8" |
| Weight | 180 lb |
| Debut | 2023-05-15 |
Player profile / Cincinnati Reds
Matt Mclain
2B · Bats/Throws R/R · 5' 8", 180 lb · Age 26
Club Cincinnati Reds
Position 2B
Roster Injured 10-Day
Status IL-10
Traditional line
Season by season
| PA | R | H | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 403 | 65 | 106 | 16 | 14 | .290 | .357 | .507 | .864 |
| 2025 | 577 | 73 | 112 | 15 | 18 | .220 | .300 | .343 | .643 |
| 2026 | 309 | 32 | 51 | 8 | 11 | .190 | .293 | .328 | .621 |
| 3 Seasons | 1289 | 170 | 269 | 39 | 43 | .235 | .316 | .392 | .708 |
At a glance
Season percentile report
The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.
59
Offense
percentile
percentile
Rolling projection
Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update
Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.
| xwOBA preseason | 0.320 |
| xwOBA current pace | 0.317 |
| xwOBA rolling p50 | 0.318 |
| Observed weight | 60% |
xwOBA
0.291
0.304
0.318
0.333
0.345
wOBA
0.293
0.308
0.326
0.343
0.359
ISO
0.135
0.148
0.162
0.176
0.189
K%
23.7%
25.0%
26.5%
27.9%
29.3%
Live percentile strip
Current traits vs projection tick
100th = best in MLB.
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.1%
67
Exit velocity87.8
46
Hard-hit%39.7%
52
xBA0.329
59
xSLG0.562
68
xwOBA0.317
61
BB%11.2%
79
+31 vs proj
Bat speed69.6
49
K%26.1%
31
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.2 · 2B
16
Arm Strength89.6 · 2B
74
Outs Above Avg4.0 · 2B
89
Range Runs1.9 · 2B
70
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.0 · 2B
16
SB Success Rate83.3% · 2B
57
Sprint Speed28.6 · 2B
84
Mithrandir+
Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance
Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.1% · rebadged research
79
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.5% · rebadged research
46
Correct Decisions68.2% · rebadged research
70
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
74
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.282 · borderline
65
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.267 · insufficient sample
86
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.273 · validated thin sample
72
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.325 · insufficient sample
69
Resists FastballwOBA 0.329 · validated
69
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.361 · validated
43
Rolling form chart
xwOBA snapshot line
Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs
Spray profile
Field-coordinate spray profile
169 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.
Zone profile
Aggregate zone heatmap
Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.
Bat tracking
Swing path, attack angle, bat speed
Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.
Live layer
Delta / regression
| xwOBA Δ | +0.006 |
| wOBA Δ | +0.015 |
negative regression
Regression watch
Running hot. Expect some cooling.
Mclain’s wOBA sits at 0.326, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.317 — a gap of 0.009, -0.3 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 329 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.
Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape
Closest profiles
| Player | Similarity | Agrees on | Open |
|---|---|---|---|
| Laureano, Ramón SD · R | 0.71 | Avg exit velocityPull rate | Player · Projection |
| Stephenson, Tyler CIN · R | 0.70 | Strikeout rateGround-ball rate | Player · Projection |
| Abreu, Wilyer BOS · L | 0.70 | In-zone contactOppo rate | Player · Projection |
| Suzuki, Seiya CHC · R | 0.68 | Ground-ball rateStrikeout rate | Player · Projection |
Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.
Mithrandir coverage
Module shelf
| Module | Cards | Latest | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hitting | 3 | 2026-04-24 | Impact contact was the main driver |
Projection links / recent games
Available detail
| Hitter Projections 20260.311 xwOBA | 15 HR | Projection |
| 2026-05-20 @ PHI0 HR | 0 RBI / 2 Ch | 0 E | 0-5 | K |
| 2026-04-20 @ TB0 HR | 0 RBI / 4 Ch | 0 E | 1-5 | 2B, 2 K, R |
| 2026-04-17 @ MIN0 HR | 0 RBI / 4 Ch | 0 E | 0-4 | 3 K |
| 2026-04-15 vs SF0 HR | 0 RBI / 3 Ch | 0 E | 0-2 | 3 BB, K, 2 R |
| 2026-04-14 vs SF0 HR | 0 RBI / 6 Ch | 0 E | 0-2 | 2 BB, CS |