Mithrandir Metrics

Traditional line

Season by season

3D Swing Sim Projections

	PA	R	H	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2025	58	11	14	5	0	.255	.293	.545	.838
2026	414	51	93	19	11	.256	.338	.474	.812
2 Seasons	472	62	107	24	11	.256	.333	.483	.816

At a glance

Season percentile report

The headline weighs outcome stats (xwOBA, barrels); each bar averages its full strip group below. 100 = best in MLB.

2026-07-17

80

Offense
percentile

Offense9 metrics

75

Defense3 metrics

32

Speed3 metrics

37

Plate skills10 metrics

48

Rolling projection

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Rolling bands shrink current-season signal toward the preseason prior until the sample earns more weight.

2026-07-17

xwOBA preseason	0.288
xwOBA current pace	0.354
xwOBA rolling p50	0.332
Observed weight	67%

xwOBA

0.308 0.319 0.332 0.344 0.356

wOBA

0.366 0.380 0.396 0.411 0.426

ISO

0.173 0.188 0.205 0.223 0.238

K%

18.6% 20.0% 21.6% 23.3% 24.7%

Live percentile strip

Current traits vs projection tick

100th = best in MLB.

2026-07-17

Hitting · percentile strip

Barrel%9.3%

93 +27 vs proj

Exit velocity90.8

83

Hard-hit%43.3%

68

xBA0.335

64

xSLG0.630

83

xwOBA0.354

86 +19 vs proj

BB%11.2%

78 +39 vs proj

Bat speed70.5

64

K%20.7%

60 +24 vs proj

Defense · percentile strip

Arm Strength83.5 · 1B

28

Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 1B

28

Range Runs-0.6 · 1B

40

Baserunning · percentile strip

Base Running Runs-0.3 · 1B

32

SB Success Rate81.8% · 1B

50

Sprint Speed26.6 · 1B

29

Mithrandir+

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

Our research metrics for how this hitter controls the strike zone and handles each pitch family.

2026-07-17

Avoids Bad ChasesST 68.9% · rebadged research

68

Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.7% · rebadged research

79

Correct Decisions70.3% · rebadged research

87

SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107

82

Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.265 · borderline

89

Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.288 · insufficient sample

24

Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.309 · validated thin sample

6

Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.351 · insufficient sample

15

Resists FastballwOBA 0.406 · validated

1

Resists SinkerwOBA 0.365 · validated

33

Rolling form chart

xwOBA snapshot line

Live snapshot series; true 50/100 PA windows require PA-level logs

12 snapshots

Hitter optimization

Swing path and decision map

Sal Stewart's tools (52) outpace production (70) by -18 points. Primary finding: excellent plate discipline but too passive on hittable pitches — letting strikes go by.

See full optimization →

See the swing in 3D →

Passive In-Zone Approach

Pass Attack Pass Attack Attack Attack Pass Attack Pass

Increase in-zone swing rate, especially on fastballs in favorable counts

Hittable takes / Expansion guardrail

Spray profile

Field-coordinate spray profile

211 Statcast batted-ball coordinates from the pitch-event feed (2026). Direction profile remains as the v1 context layer when coordinate density is limited.

Zone profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Aggregate zone metrics from seasonal Statcast leaderboards.

Bat tracking

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Aggregate Savant bat-tracking metrics; not per-swing motion capture. The full swing, with the recommended path overlaid, lives in the 3D Swing Simulator.

Watch the swing in 3D →

2026

Regression watch

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

-1.6σ gap

wOBA (actual)0.396

xwOBA (deserved)0.354

Stewart’s wOBA sits at 0.396, but the quality of contact underneath says it should be 0.354 — a gap of 0.042, -1.6 standard deviations from the MLB norm over 439 PA. The results have outrun the underlying process; as the sample grows, expect the numbers to drift back toward the deserved level.

Comp Engine · 2026 profile shape

Closest profiles

Full constellation →

Player	Similarity	Agrees on	Open
Acuña Jr., Ronald ATL · R	0.69	Fly-ball rateSwing length	Player · Projection
Machado, Manny SD · R	0.69	Walk rateHard-hit rate	Player · Projection
Goldschmidt, Paul NYY · R	0.67	Whiff rateIsolated power	Player · Projection
Hernández, Teoscar LAD · R	0.65	Bat speedxwOBA on contact	Player · Projection

Profile-shape similarity, not results: six weighted feature groups standardized within this season's qualified hitters.

Mithrandir coverage

Module shelf

Module	Cards	Latest	Signal
Hitting	6	2026-07-08	Impact contact was the main driver

Projection links / recent games

Available detail

Hitter Projections 20260.326 xwOBA \| 10 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 @ PHI1 HR \| 2 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	4-5 \| HR, 2B, 2 RBI
2026-04-20 @ TB1 HR \| 2 RBI / 10 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| HR, 2B, K
2026-04-17 @ MIN0 HR \| 0 RBI / 7 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| K, R, SB
2026-04-15 vs SF2 HR \| 6 RBI / 8 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| 2 HR, K, 6 RBI
2026-04-14 vs SF1 HR \| 1 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| HR, 2 K, RBI

Age	22
Height	6' 1"
Weight	224 lb
Debut	2025-09-01

xwOBA Δ	+0.028
wOBA Δ	+0.070

Hitter Projections 20260.326 xwOBA \| 10 HR	Projection
2026-05-20 @ PHI1 HR \| 2 RBI / 4 Ch \| 0 E	4-5 \| HR, 2B, 2 RBI
2026-04-20 @ TB1 HR \| 2 RBI / 10 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| HR, 2B, K
2026-04-17 @ MIN0 HR \| 0 RBI / 7 Ch \| 0 E	1-4 \| K, R, SB
2026-04-15 vs SF2 HR \| 6 RBI / 8 Ch \| 0 E	2-4 \| 2 HR, K, 6 RBI
2026-04-14 vs SF1 HR \| 1 RBI / 9 Ch \| 0 E	1-3 \| HR, 2 K, RBI

Sal Stewart

Season by season

Season percentile report

Preseason / current pace / Bayesian update

Current traits vs projection tick

Plate skills: swing decisions and pitch-type resistance

xwOBA snapshot line

Swing path and decision map

Field-coordinate spray profile

Aggregate zone heatmap

Swing path, attack angle, bat speed

Current snapshot

Delta / regression

Running hot. Expect some cooling.

Closest profiles

Module shelf

Available detail